Missing data are an unavoidable complication frequently encountered in many causal discovery tasks. 
When a missing process depends on the missing values themselves (known as self-masking missingness), the recovery of the joint distribution becomes unattainable, and detecting the presence of such self-masking missingness remains a perplexing challenge. Consequently, due to the inability to reconstruct the original distribution and to discern the underlying missingness mechanism, simply applying existing causal discovery methods would lead to wrong conclusions. In this work, we found that the recent advances additive noise model has the potential for learning causal structure under the existence of the self-masking missingness. With this observation, we aim to investigate the identification problem of learning causal structure from missing data under an additive noise model with different missingness mechanisms, where the `no self-masking missingness' assumption can be eliminated appropriately. 
Specifically, we first elegantly extend the scope of identifiability of causal skeleton to the case with weak self-masking missingness (i.e., no other variable could be the cause of self-masking indicators except itself). We further provide the sufficient and necessary identification conditions of the causal direction under additive noise model and show that the causal structure can be identified up to an IN-equivalent pattern. We finally propose a practical algorithm based on the above theoretical results on learning the causal skeleton and causal direction. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

Identification of Causal Structure in the Presence of Missing Data with Additive Noise Model

An important problem across multiple disciplines is to infer and understand meaningful latent variables. One strategy commonly used is to model the measured variables in terms of the latent variables under suitable assumptions on the connectivity from the latents to the measured (known as measurement model). Furthermore, it might be even more interesting to discover the causal relations among the latent variables (known as structural model). Recently, some methods have been proposed to estimate the structural model by assuming that the noise terms in the measured and latent variables are non-Gaussian. However, they are not suitable when some of the noise terms become Gaussian. To bridge this gap, we investigate the problem of identification of the structural model with arbitrary noise distributions. We provide necessary and sufficient condition under which the structural model is identifiable: it is identifiable iff for each pair of adjacent latent variables Lx, Ly, (1) at least one of Lx and Ly has non-Gaussian noise, or (2) at least one of them has a non-Gaussian ancestor and is not d-separated from the non-Gaussian component of this ancestor by the common causes of Lx and Ly. This identifiability result relaxes the non-Gaussianity requirements to only a (hopefully small) subset of variables, and accordingly elegantly extends the application scope of the structural model. Based on the above identifiability result, we further propose a practical algorithm to learn the structural model. We verify the correctness of the identifiability result and the effectiveness of the proposed method through empirical studies.

Identification of Linear Latent Variable Model with Arbitrary Distribution

Learning Granger causality from event sequences is a challenging but essential task across various applications. Most existing methods rely on the assumption that event sequences are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). However, this i.i.d. assumption is often violated due to the inherent dependencies among the event sequences. Fortunately, in practice, we find these dependencies can be modeled by a topological network, suggesting a potential solution to the non-i.i.d. problem by introducing the prior topological network into Granger causal discovery. This observation prompts us to tackle two ensuing challenges: 1) how to model the event sequences while incorporating both the prior topological network and the latent Granger causal structure, and 2) how to learn the Granger causal structure. To this end, we devise a unified topological neural Poisson auto-regressive model with two processes. In the generation process, we employ a variant of the neural Poisson process to model the event sequences, considering influences from both the topological network and the Granger causal structure. In the inference process, we formulate an amortized inference algorithm to infer the latent Granger causal structure. We encapsulate these two processes within a unified likelihood function, providing an end-to-end framework for this task. Experiments on simulated and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

TNPAR: Topological Neural Poisson Auto-Regressive Model for Learning Granger Causal Structure from Event Sequences

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been demonstrated to be vulnerable to well-crafted \emph{adversarial examples}, which are generated through either well-conceived $\mathcal{L}_p$-norm restricted or unrestricted attacks. Nevertheless, the majority of those approaches assume that adversaries can modify any features as they wish, and neglect the causal generating process of the data, which is unreasonable and unpractical. For instance, a modification in income would inevitably impact features like the debt-to-income ratio within a banking system. By considering the underappreciated causal generating process, first, we pinpoint the source of the vulnerability of DNNs via the lens of causality, then give theoretical results to answer \emph{where to attack}. Second, considering the consequences of the attack interventions on the current state of the examples to generate more realistic adversarial examples, we propose CADE, a framework that can generate \textbf{C}ounterfactual \textbf{AD}versarial \textbf{E}xamples to answer \emph{how to attack}. The empirical results demonstrate CADE's effectiveness, as evidenced by its competitive performance across diverse attack scenarios, including white-box, transfer-based, and random intervention attacks.

Where and How to Attack? A Causality-Inspired Recipe for Generating Counterfactual Adversarial Examples

Count data naturally arise in many fields, such as finance, neuroscience, and epidemiology, and discovering causal structure among count data is a crucial task in various scientific and industrial scenarios. One of the most common characteristics of count data is the inherent branching structure described by a binomial thinning operator and an independent Poisson distribution that captures both branching and noise. For instance, in a population count scenario, mortality and immigration contribute to the count, where survival follows a Bernoulli distribution, and immigration follows a Poisson distribution. However, causal discovery from such data is challenging due to the non-identifiability issue: a single causal pair is Markov equivalent, i.e.,  $X\rightarrow Y$ and $Y\rightarrow X$ are distributed equivalent. Fortunately, in this work, we found that the causal order from $X$ to its child $Y$ is identifiable if $X$ is a root vertex and has at least two directed paths to $Y$, or the ancestor of $X$ with the most directed path to $X$ has a directed path to $Y$ without passing $X$. Specifically, we propose a Poisson Branching Structure Causal Model (PB-SCM) and perform a path analysis on PB-SCM using high-order cumulants. Theoretical results establish the connection between the path and cumulant and demonstrate that the path information can be obtained from the cumulant. With the path information, causal order is identifiable under some graphical conditions. A practical algorithm for learning causal structure under PB-SCM is proposed and the experiments demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Causal Discovery from Poisson Branching Structural Causal Model Using High-Order Cumulant with Path Analysis

Main Track - RU

technical paper

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The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. 

Main_Track

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

Jie Qiao

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Presentations

Identification of Causal Structure in the Presence of Missing Data with Additive Noise Model

Identification of Linear Latent Variable Model with Arbitrary Distribution

TNPAR: Topological Neural Poisson Auto-Regressive Model for Learning Granger Causal Structure from Event Sequences

Where and How to Attack? A Causality-Inspired Recipe for Generating Counterfactual Adversarial Examples

Causal Discovery from Poisson Branching Structural Causal Model Using High-Order Cumulant with Path Analysis

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