Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulate low resolution climate projections on a global scale. The native resolution of GCMs is generally too low for societal-level decision-making. To enhance the spatial resolution, downscaling is often applied to GCM output. Statistical downscaling techniques, in particular, are well-established as a cost-effective approach. They require significantly less computational time than physics-based dynamical downscaling. In recent years, deep learning has gained prominence in statistical downscaling, demonstrating significantly lower error rates compared to traditional statistical methods. However, a drawback of regression-based deep learning techniques is their tendency to overfit to the mean sample intensity. Extreme values as a result are often underestimated. Problematically, extreme events have the largest societal impact. We propose Quantile-Regression-Ensemble (QRE), an innovative deep learning algorithm inspired by boosting methods. Its primary objective is to avoid trade-offs between fitting to sample means and extreme values by training independent models on a partitioned dataset. Our QRE is robust to redundant models and not susceptible to explosive ensemble weights, ensuring a reliable training process. QRE achieves lower Mean Squared Error (MSE) compared to various baseline models. In particular, our algorithm has a lower  error for high-intensity precipitation events over New Zealand, highlighting the ability to represent extreme events accurately.

Quantile-Regression-Ensemble: A Deep Learning Algorithm for Downscaling Extreme Precipitation

AI for Social Impact

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The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-24 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

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AAAI 2024

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. 

Thomas Bailie

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Quantile-Regression-Ensemble: A Deep Learning Algorithm for Downscaling Extreme Precipitation

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