This paper demonstrates that aggregating crowdsourced forecasts benefits from modeling the written justifications provided by forecasters. Our experiments show that the majority and weighted vote baselines are competitive, and that the written justifications are beneficial to call a question throughout its life except in the last quarter. We also conduct an error analysis shedding light into the characteristics that make a justification unreliable.

Written Justifications are Key to Aggregate Crowdsourced Forecasts

Findings Papers - NLP Applications

technical paper

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EMNLP 2021

EMNLP 2021 is planned to be a hybrid event in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, with both on-site and fully virtual participation possible.

Saketh Kotamraju

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Written Justifications are Key to Aggregate Crowdsourced Forecasts

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