**Abstract:**

Many seabird populations are rapidly declining. For numerous colonies, only recent and/or sparse monitoring data are available that do not consider the population's long-term variability when developing management strategies. In our study, we used a broad spectrum of landscape-scale paleoenvironmental approaches on dated lake sediment cores to examine millennial-scale dynamics from two of the world's largest colonies of vulnerable Leach's Storm-petrel (Hydrobates leucorhous) on Baccalieu Island and Grand Colombier Island, both located off the coast of Newfoundland, Canada. Available survey data demonstrates the storm-petrel colonies have declined since the 1980s, and may have stabilized by the early 2000s. However, little is known about the timing and cause of the colony declines, nor is there information on the natural long-term variability prior to the influence of anthropogenic stressors. Our reconstructed populations, based on limnological changes from seabird-derived nutrient and metal inputs preserved in sediments, corroborate the limited survey data that suggest a recent decline, and indicate large-scale fluctuations over millennial timescales. On Baccalieu Island, two distinct colony peaks were observed during the last 1,700 years, and on Grand Colombier Island we track at least four distinct peaks over 5,500 years. The asynchronous peaks and valleys in population size of the studied colonies, coupled with in-field observations and genetic analyses, provide evidence for recruitment and mobility of storm-petrels among colonies as key dynamics in the storm-petrel metapopulation. Based on our results, we emphasize that the recent decline in storm-petrels is real and requires immediate conservation action to understand the mechanism(s) driving the decline. Our long-term perspectives highlight the need for protected area networks to sustain natural population cycles. We demonstrate paleolimnological techniques have the potential to provide a long-term context for the size and persistence of seabird populations, which can lead to more realistic conservation strategies that take into account temporal demographic dynamics across a species' range.

**Authors:**

Matthew Duda¹, Gregory Robertson², Joeline Lim¹, Jennifer Kissinger³, David Eickmeyer³, Christopher Grooms¹, William Montevecchi⁴, Linda Kimpe³, Neal Michelutti¹, Jules Blais³, John Smol¹

¹Queen's University, ²Environment and Climate Change Canada, ³University of Ottawa, ⁴Memorial University of Newfoundland

Assessing millennial-scale changes in seabird colony size using paleoenvironmental techniques: Case studies of Leach's Storm-Petrels in Eastern North America

**Session Replay:** [Click here](https://zoom.us/rec/share/GlmS9Qs6XvclrJG27Y1RIwKIfkaxgdr-G5OiV0QW2y7BtxUu-GxMHoNROzszfDbL.ogUfOQb85vj0fe80?startTime=1633443335000)<br><br>

<i>**Session Chairs: **Francis Daunt, Sue Lewis</i><br><br> 
**Session Description:**<br>Research on seabird ecology has demonstrated remarkable variation among species and populations due to differences in intrinsic processes and environmental conditions. As a result, it has been challenging to unravel key ecological processes that underpin the relationship between seabirds and their environment, which has hampered our ability to make accurate forecasts of future population change. A powerful way of identifying key ecological processes is to undertake studies at multiple colonies or populations. Over the last decade, there has been a marked increase in this approach in a range of fields including population and foraging dynamics, including the first formal meta-analyses, providing robust insights into fundamental relationships. This symposium will showcase the latest research in this fast moving and critically important field.<br>

Symposium 3 - Unravelling fundamental processes in seabird ecology: The role of multi-colony studies II

symposium

Welcome Seabirders!  

Welcome to Virtual World Seabird Conference 3 - vWSC3! Whether you are in your office or lab, at home, in a coffee shop or bar poaching some wifi, or at a remote field site or research vessel – we are very excited to welcome you to the third ever World Seabird Conference. 

We would like to thank ALL of you for being so patient as WSC3 was scheduled, postponed, rescheduled, revised to virtual, and scheduled again. Throughout all those iterations there was one message that remained perfectly clear – seabirders were eager to meet and share their science. If we could not meet in person then virtual it would have to be, but a 3rd WSC was something everyone wanted. That support and commitment helped the WSU Board of Directors and Member Societies sort through all of the challenges they faced to plan and hold this conference. 

The list of those that need to be thanked is long and, while we plan on recognizing many during the live closing plenary, it is important to do so here in writing as well. 

The Australasian Seabird Group was our Local Host for our plan to meet in Hobart, Tasmania. They invested substantial time and effort to find venues and plan events that we unfortunately were not able to visit. Nonetheless we appreciate their work on behalf of WSC3 and encourage all of you to thank them when you see their members in Gathertown or elsewhere during our virtual meeting. Their willingness to host created the initial excitement for WSC3 and without that our vWSC would not have been possible.

We also wish to thank the Science Program Committee, the Virtual Committee, and the Early Career Scientist Committee for their hard work planning the logistics, events, and schedule for vWSC3. These committees also had to deal with changing parameters and short timelines that made what is always a challenging task even more challenging. The Travel Awards Committee also invested time and effort in developing procedures for awarding travel funds that ultimately would not be implemented. 

Our ability to shift from an in-person to a virtual meeting, and to do so in a way that would be financially feasible, was due to the effective efforts of The International Fundraising Committee and to our financial sponsors. The IFC raised funds to support WSC3 and then, through the good relationships they built with sponsors, ensured we could re-envision how those funds could be used to support a virtual conference that would be affordable and high-quality.

We all owe the WSU Board of Directors and the Representatives of the Member Societies a great deal of thanks. They are the ones who manage the WSU and, for the past 18 months, have had to have a series of challenging meetings and conversations, have had to make a series of difficult choices, have had to do all of that while considering the short- and long-term health of WSU and the World Seabird Conferences, and did this while also managing their own challenges at their day jobs. We are grateful for their diligence, patience, foresight, and throughout all of the meetings, their collegiality. Also – a 6-year term is quite a commitment!

There would not be a WSC3 without a successful WSC1 and WSC2. Thanks go to the Pacific Seabird Group for their support of WSC1 in Victoria, Canada, and to the African Seabird Group for their support of WSC2 in Cape Town, South Africa. In each of these endeavors and for our current conference we were fortunate to work with a dependable and trustworthy partner in Podium Conferences. Michelle Smith and Marischal de Armond have become valued members of our team and have not only helped us plan conferences but have assisted and advised the WSU Chairs and Board on issues above and beyond conference planning. 

As we embark on our vWSC3 week we extend to all of you our thanks for showing up, for being patient, and most importantly for the work you do with seabirds. We are all part of a unique, global community that shares an interest, a fascination, and a passion for birds that make a living in our world’s oceans. We have advanced the science, conservation, and management of seabirds as well the ecosystems they inhabit. We are consistently impressed and motivated by the work you do. 

The WSU formed in 2010 because we saw the need for a global organization to address challenges at a global level. Over the past 11 years WSU has grown, adapted, and evolved to become the community that this week is making vWSC3 a reality. Enjoy the week, appreciate and support the friends and colleagues you have made in the community, and if you see us in a virtual hallway please stop and say hello! 

Thank you for the opportunity to serve all of you and the WSU over the past few years,

Nicholas Carlile, Interim Chair, WSU<br>
Patrick Jodice, 2nd Chair of the WSU<br><br>

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3rd World Seabird Conference

Join us for four days of science, networking and virtual engagement with delegates from around the world!

Matthew Duda

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Assessing millennial-scale changes in seabird colony size using paleoenvironmental techniques: Case studies of Leach's Storm-Petrels in Eastern North America

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