Consequences of climate change are often more obvious on global scale, but downsizing at regional scale implies a good knowledge of territory, its intrinsic fragility and the urban characteristics. Underlining and predicting trends of climate variables within regional and especially municipal scales to promote adaptation and mitigation strategies is the purpose of the SECAP (Supporting Energy and Climate Adaption Policies). A practical approach to analysing the impact of climate change aimed at driving specific policies and actions on an urban scale is the SECAP template, the official report of the Covenant of Mayors initiative. Using different methodologies, we have examined various extreme climatic events and climate projections at the regional scale, downscaling to the city of Trieste and other rural areas: the heat waves, the drought, the wildfires, the heavy precipitations, and all the consequences linked, for instance, to the river floods or episodic storm surges combined with the sea level rise. All projections seem to indicate potential significant variations in intensity of extreme events or frequency during the different seasons from a mid-term/long-term timeframe (2050-2100). The intensification of such extreme events amplifies the effects of sea level rise and the temperature increase on the territory, causing important consequences in terms of geological hazard, such as river flood, coastal flood and landslide, especially in a highly urbanized contexts like the city of Trieste. In order to quantify the cause-effect relationships requested by the SECAP template, we propose a methodology based on the intrinsic geological characteristics and vulnerabilities of the territory. In the template, the current hazards are considered in term of probability and impact, whereas for the future hazards the definition of the expected change of intensity and frequency, as well as the timeframes are requested. The quantitative approach permits to scale the qualitative “low, medium, high” attributes, too generic as indicators. For the river flood, the Regional Hydrogeological Planning Plan (PAI) and the risk maps of the Floods Directive have been analysed, parameterizing the hazard in a quali-quantitative way and highlighting the vulnerable areas. For the coastal flood we have superimposed predictive models of inundation of the city to the digital terrain model, quantifying the coastal length involved in the phenomenon. For landslide, we analysed and revised the regional landslides database in terms of the number of landslides compared to the extent of the municipal area and the type of land use. Finally, for each geological hazard, the effects of the foreseen intensification in extreme events were assessed. The analyses obtained show an increasing trend in these geological phenomena, and in general in risk. These considerations form the basis for the drafting of SECAP and local planning.

A quantitative approach for the urban adaptation policy to climate change (SECAP): an application to some geological hazards


<i>**Session Chairs: **Laura Melelli (University of Perugia), Pierluigi Brandolini (University of Genova), Diego Di Martire (University of Napoli), Domenico Calcaterra (University of Napoli)</i><br><br>


S25. Urban Geology and Geomorphology I

technical paper

**Attenzione, gli orari riportati nel PROGRAMMA (icona calendario) si riferiscono al fuso orario locale dell’utente. Il fuso orario ufficiale del Congresso è Central European Time (CET).**

L'Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale - OGS e il Dipartimento di Matematica e Geoscienze dell'Università di Trieste sono orgogliosi di ospitare il 90° Congresso della Società Geologica Italiana a Trieste dal 14 al 16 settembre 2021. La modalità del congresso è interamente online.

Con il motto "Geologia senza frontiere" questo evento mira a promuovere le Scienze della Terra come disciplina scientifica proiettata nel futuro, oltre i confini geografici, politici e disciplinari, per comprendere meglio l'interno del Pianeta Terra e la struttura del sottosuolo, difendere la società da pericolosi eventi geologici, comprendere meglio la variabilità climatica, pianificare l'utilizzo delle georisorse in modo etico e nel rispetto dell'ambiente.


**Please note, times listed in the SCHEDULE tab (calendar icon) reflect YOUR LOCAL TIME ZONE. The main timezone for this conference will be Central European Summer Time.**

The National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics - OGS and the Department of Mathematics and Geosciences of the University of Trieste are proud to host the 90th Congress of the Italian Geological Society in Trieste on 14-16 September 2021.  The Congress will be held entirely online.

With the motto "Geology Without Borders" this event aims to promote Earth Sciences as a scientific discipline projected into the future, beyond geographical, political and disciplinary boundaries, to better understand the interior of Planet Earth and the structure of the subsurface, defend society from dangerous geological events, better understand climatic variability, plan the use of geo-resources in an ethical way and respecting the environment.


Welcome to the SGI2021 virtual conference.  In order to access the conference and content, [please register for the meeting here](https://www.geoscienze.org/trieste2021/index.php/registrazioni/registrati)

Please register for the SGI conference to join the event.

SGI 2021

Earth Sciences should be understood not only as necessary for a better understanding of the interior of the planet Earth, but also as a defense of society from dangerous geological events, for the understanding of climatic variations, for the planning and use of georesources in a ethical and respecting and protecting the environment.

Giulia Casagrande

1

2

SHORT BIO

Presentations

A quantitative approach for the urban adaptation policy to climate change (SECAP): an application to some geological hazards

Stay up to date with the latest Underline news!

PRESENTATIONS

CONFERENCES

COMPANY

RESOURCES