Hindsight bias is exhibited when knowledge of an outcome (i.e., an anchor) affects subsequent recollections of previous predictions (i.e., an estimate). Hindsight bias usually leads to estimates being remembered as closer to the anchor than they actually were. The exact amount of hindsight bias exhibited depends on the anchor value and the anchor plausibility, with experimental results showing that hindsight bias is elicited only when the anchor is perceived to be plausible. In this paper we present a Bayesian model that captures the relationship between hindsight bias and anchor plausibility. This model provides a rational account of hindsight bias by considering memory recall as a statistical problem, where the goal is to reconstruct the original estimate using the anchor as new evidence. Simulations show that the modeled trends align closely with previously published human data.

A Rational Account of Anchor Effects in Hindsight Bias

How people represent categories—and how those representations change over time—is a basic question about human cognition. Previous research has suggested that people categorize objects by comparing them to category prototypes in early stages of learning but use strategies that consider the individual exemplars within each category in later stages. However, many category learning experiments do not accurately reflect the environmental statistics of the real world, where the probability that we encounter an object changes over time. Our goal in this study was to introduce memory constraints by presenting each stimulus at intervals corresponding to the power-law function of memory decay. Since the exemplar model relies on the individual’s ability to store and retrieve previously seen exemplars, we hypothesized that adding memory constraints that better reflect real environments would favor the exemplar model more early on compared with later. Confirming our hypothesis, the results illustrate that under realistic environmental statistics with memory constraints, the exemplar model’s advantage over the the prototype model decreases over time.

The Dynamics of Exemplar and Prototype Representations Depend on Environmental Statistics


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Poster Session 1 -  C : Cognitive Science

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**Dear Colleagues,**

Welcome to the 43rd Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society! 

This year’s conference brings together the latest research from all Cognitive Science and also highlights this year’s theme **Comparative Cognition: Animal Minds.** 

The program features four plenary speakers: Friederike Range (University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna), Onur Güntürkün (Ruhr University Bochum), Julia Fischer (University of Göttingen), and Erich Jarvis (The Rockefeller University). The keynotes and invited symposia showcase the broad spectrum of ideas that encompass the conference theme of comparative cognition. 

Further, the program includes the Rumelhart Prize keynote presentation by Susan Goldin-Meadow (University of Chicago), and symposia to celebrate the winner of the Elman Prize: Wei Ji Ma (New York University), the Heineken Award winner Robert Zatorre (McGill University), and the Robert J. Glushko Dissertation Prizes session.

The program committee for CogSci 2021 received 1,025 submissions, including 710 full papers, 275 member abstracts, 8 publication-based talks, as well as 15 proposals for symposia, and 17 for workshops and tutorials. After a rigorous review process, the committee selected 152 papers for oral presentation and inclusion in the conference proceedings (14.8%), 332 papers for poster presentation and inclusion in the proceedings (32.4%), and 175 papers for poster presentation with inclusion of abstracts in the proceedings (17.1%) We also selected 275 submitted member abstracts. In addition, we accepted 6 publication-based talks, 12 symposia, and 9 workshops and tutorials to make for an exciting and inclusive program.

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CogSci 2021

The Cognitive Science Society brings together researchers from around the world who hold a common goal: understanding the nature of the human mind. The mission of the Society is to promote Cognitive Science as a discipline, and to foster scientific interchange among researchers in various areas of study, including Artificial Intelligence, Linguistics, Anthropology, Psychology, Neuroscience, Philosophy, and Education. The Society is a non-profit professional organization and its activities include sponsoring an annual conference and publishing the journals Cognitive Science and TopiCS.

**Session Chair: **Gary Lupyan 
**Technical Session Chair: **Raihyung Lee 
**Session Description: ** The session is comprised of 15 minute talks followed by up to 5 minutes of live Q&A time for each presenter.

Qiong Zhang

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14

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SHORT BIO

Presentations

A Rational Account of Anchor Effects in Hindsight Bias

The Dynamics of Exemplar and Prototype Representations Depend on Environmental Statistics

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