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Variance in predictions across different trained models is a significant, under-explored source of error in fair binary classification. In practice, the variance on some data examples is so large that decisions can be effectively arbitrary. To investigate this problem, we take an experimental approach and make four overarching contributions. We: 1) Define a metric called self-consistency, derived from variance, which we use as a proxy for measuring and reducing arbitrariness; 2) Develop an ensembling algorithm that abstains from classification when a prediction would be arbitrary; 3) Conduct the largest to-date empirical study of the role of variance (vis-a-vis self-consistency and arbitrariness) in fair binary classification; and, 4) Release a toolkit that makes the US Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) datasets easily usable for future research. Altogether, our experiments reveal shocking insights about the reliability of conclusions on benchmark datasets. Most fair binary classification benchmarks are close-to-fair when taking into account the amount of arbitrariness present in predictions -- before we even try to apply any fairness interventions. This finding calls into question the practical utility of common algorithmic fairness methods, and in turn suggests that we should reconsider how we choose to measure fairness in binary classification.

AAAI 2024

Arbitrariness and Social Prediction: The Confounding Role of Variance in Fair Classification

peai: philosophical foundations of ai

ru: uncertainty representations

ml: classification and regression

fairness & equity

peai: bias

technical paper

We are pleased to announce the Thirty-Eighth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-24), which will be held in Vancouver, British Columbia at the Vancouver Convention Centre – West Building from 20-27 February, 2024.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-24 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

We expect for AAAI-24 to be an in-person conference – one author of all accepted papers will be expected to present work in person unless there are exceptional circumstances that prevent this.<br><br><br><br>

In order to access the AAAI-24 event page you need to register [here](https://aaai.org/aaai-conference/registration/)

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. 

Automatic Essay Scoring (AES) is a well-established educational pursuit that employs machine learning to evaluate student-authored essays. While much effort has been made in this area, current research primarily focuses on either (i) boosting the predictive accuracy of an AES model for a specific prompt (i.e., developing prompt-specific models), which often heavily relies on the use of the labeled data from the same target prompt; or (ii) assessing the applicability of AES models developed on non-target prompts to the intended target prompt (i.e., developing the AES models in a cross-prompt setting). Given the inherent bias in machine learning and its potential impact on marginalized groups, it is imperative to investigate whether such bias exists in current AES methods and, if identified, how it intervenes with an AES model's accuracy and generalizability. Thus, our study aimed to uncover the intricate relationship between an AES model's accuracy, fairness, and generalizability, contributing practical insights for developing effective AES models in real-world education. To this end, we meticulously selected nine prominent AES methods and evaluated their performance using seven distinct metrics on an open-sourced dataset, which contains over 25,000 essays and various demographic information about students such as gender, English language learner status, and economic status. Through extensive evaluations, we demonstrated that: (1) prompt-specific models tend to outperform their cross-prompt counterparts in terms of predictive accuracy; (2) prompt-specific models frequently exhibit a greater bias towards students of different economic statuses compared to cross-prompt models; (3) in the pursuit of generalizability, traditional machine learning models (e.g., SVM) coupled with carefully engineered features hold greater potential for achieving both high accuracy and fairness than complex neural network models.

Unveiling the Tapestry of Automated Essay Scoring: A Comprehensive Investigation of Accuracy, Fairness, and Generalizability

Medical insurance fraud has always been a crucial challenge in the field of healthcare industry. Existing fraud detection models mostly focus on offline learning scenes. However, fraud patterns are constantly evolving, making it difficult for models trained on past data to detect newly emerging fraud patterns, posing a severe challenge in medical fraud detection. Moreover, current incremental learning models are mostly designed to address catastrophic forgetting, but often exhibit suboptimal performance in fraud detection. To address this challenge, this paper proposes an innovative online learning method for medical insurance fraud detection, named POCL. This method combines contrastive learning pre-training with online updating strategies. In the pre-training stage, we leverage contrastive learning pre-training to learn on historical data, enabling deep feature learning and obtaining rich risk representations. In the online learning stage, we adopt a Temporal Memory Aware Synapses online updating strategy, allowing the model to perform incremental learning and optimization based on continuously emerging new data. This ensures timely adaptation to fraud patterns and reduces forgetting of past knowledge. Our model undergoes extensive experiments and evaluations on real-world insurance fraud datasets. The results demonstrate our model has significant advantages in accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art baseline methods, while also exhibiting lower running time and space consumption. Our sources are released at https://github.com/finint/POCL.

Pre-trained Online Contrastive Learning for Insurance Fraud Detection

Depression detection is a challenging and crucial task in psychological illness diagnosis. Utilizing online user posts to predict whether a user suffers from depression seems an effective and promising direction. However, existing methods suffer from either poor interpretability brought by the black-box models or underwhelming performance caused by the completely separate two-stage model structure. To alleviate these limitations, we propose a novel capsule network integrated with contrastive learning for depression detection (DeCapsNet). The highlights of DeCapsNet can be summarized as follows. First, it extracts symptom capsules from user posts by leveraging meticulously designed symptom descriptions, and then distills them into class-indicative depression capsules. The overall workflow is in an explicit hierarchical reasoning manner and can be well interpreted by the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ9), which is one of the most widely adopted questionnaires for depression diagnosis. Second, it integrates with contrastive learning, which can facilitate the embeddings from the same class to be pulled closer, while simultaneously pushing the embeddings from different classes apart. In addition, by adopting the end-to-end training strategy, it does not necessitate additional data annotation, and mitigates the potential adverse effects from the upstream task to the downstream task. Extensive experiments on three widely-used datasets show that in both within-dataset and cross-dataset scenarios our proposed method outperforms other strong baselines significantly.

Depression Detection via Capsule Networks with Contrastive Learning

This paper analyzes the privacy of traditional Statistical Disclosure Control (SDC) systems under a differential privacy interpretation. SDCs, such as cell suppression and swapping, promise to safeguard the confidentiality of data and are routinely adopted in data analyses with profound societal and economic impacts. Through a formal analysis and empirical evaluation of demographic data from real households in the U.S., the paper shows that widely adopted SDC systems not only induce vastly larger privacy losses than classical differential privacy mechanisms, but, they may also come at a cost of larger accuracy and fairness.

Finding $\epsilon$ and $\delta$ of Traditional Disclosure Control Systems

Due to the significance of its various applications, source localization has garnered considerable attention as one of the most important means to confront diffusion hazards. Multi-source localization from a single-snapshot observation is especially relevant due to its prevalence. However, the inherent complexities of this problem, such as limited information, interactions among sources, and dependence on diffusion models, pose challenges to resolution. Current methods typically utilize heuristics and greedy selection, and they are usually bonded with one diffusion model. Consequently, their effectiveness is constrained. To address these limitations, we propose a simulation-based method termed BOSouL. Bayesian optimization (BO) is adopted to approximate the results for its sample efficiency. A surrogate function models uncertainty from the limited information. It takes sets of nodes as the input instead of individual nodes.BOSouL can incorporate any diffusion model in the data acquisition process through simulations. Empirical studies demonstrate that its performance is robust across graph structures and diffusion models. The code is available at https://github.com/XGraph-Team/BOSouL.

Multiple-Source Localization from a Single-Snapshot Observation Using Graph Bayesian Optimization

The open streets initiative "opens" streets to pedestrians and bicyclists by closing them to cars and trucks. The initiative, adopted by many cities across North America, increases community space in urban environments. But could open streets also make cities safer and less congested? We study this question by framing the choice of which streets to open as a reinforcement learning problem. In order to simulate the impact of opening streets, we first compare models for predicting vehicle collisions given network and temporal data. We find that a recurrent graph neural network, leveraging the graph structure and the short-term temporal dependence of the data, gives the best predictive performance. Then, with the ability to simulate collisions and traffic, we frame a reinforcement learning problem to find which streets to open. We compare the streets in the open streets initiative to those proposed by a Q-learning algorithm. We find that the streets proposed by the Q-learning algorithm have reliably better outcomes, while streets already selected by the open streets initiative have similar outcomes to randomly selected streets. We present our work as a step toward principally choosing which streets to open for safer and less congested cities. All our code and data are available in the supplementary material.

I Open at the Close: A Deep Reinforcement Learning Evaluation of Open Streets Initiatives | VIDEO

Fairness is becoming a rising concern in machine learning. Recent research has discovered that state-of-the-art models are amplifying social bias by making biased prediction towards some population groups (characterized by sensitive features like race or gender). Such unfair prediction among groups renders trust issues and ethical concerns in machine learning, especially for sensitive fields such as employment, criminal justice, and trust score assessment. In this paper, we introduce a new framework to improve machine learning fairness. The goal of our model is to minimize the influence of sensitive feature from the perspectives of both data input and predictive model. To achieve this goal, we reformulate the data input by eliminating the sensitive information and strengthen model fairness by minimizing the marginal contribution of the sensitive feature. We propose to learn the sensitive-irrelevant input via sampling among features and design an adversarial network to minimize the dependence between the reformulated input and the sensitive information. Empirical results validate that our model achieves comparable or better results than related state-of-the-art methods w.r.t. both fairness metrics and prediction performance.

Adversarial Fairness Network

This paper studies long-term fair machine learning which aims to mitigate group disparity over the long term in sequential decision-making systems. To define long-term fairness, we leverage the temporal causal graph and use the 1-Wasserstein distance between the interventional distributions of different demographic groups at a sufficiently large time step as the quantitative metric. Then, we propose a three-phase learning framework where the decision model is trained on high-fidelity data generated by a deep generative model. We formulate the optimization problem as a performative risk minimization and adopt the repeated gradient descent algorithm for learning. The empirical evaluation shows the efficacy of the proposed method using both synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.

Long-Term Fair Decision Making through Deep Generative Models | VIDEO

Social media sites have become a popular platform for individuals to seek and share health information. Despite the progress in natural language processing for social media mining, a gap remains in analyzing health-related texts on social discourse in the context of events. Event-driven analysis can offer insights into different facets of healthcare at an individual and collective level, including treatment options, misconceptions, knowledge gaps, etc. This paper presents a paradigm to characterize health-related information-seeking in social discourse through the lens of events. Events here are board categories defined with domain experts that capture the trajectory of the treatment/medication. To illustrate the value of this approach, we analyze Reddit posts regarding medications for Opioid Use Disorder (OUD), a critical global health concern. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to define event categories for characterizing information-seeking in OUD social discourse. Guided by domain experts, we develop TREAT-ISE, a novel multilabel treatment information-seeking event dataset to analyze online discourse on an event-based framework. This dataset contains Reddit posts on information-seeking events related to recovery from OUD, where each post is annotated based on the type of events. We also establish a strong performance benchmark (77.4% F1 score) for the task by employing several machine learning and deep learning classifiers. Finally, we thoroughly investigate the performance and errors of ChatGPT on this task, providing valuable insights into the LLM's capabilities and ongoing characterization efforts.

Characterizing Information Seeking Events in Health-Related Social Discourse | VIDEO

The aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic saw more severe outcomes for racial minority groups and economically-deprived communities. Such disparities can be explained by several factors, including unequal access to healthcare, as well as the inability of low income groups to reduce their mobility due to work or social obligations. Moreover, senior citizens were found to be more susceptible to severe symptoms, largely due to age-related health reasons. Adapting vaccine distribution strategies to consider a range of demographics is therefore essential to address these disparities. In this study, we propose a novel approach that utilizes influence maximization (IM) on mobility networks to develop vaccination strategies which incorporate demographic fairness. By considering factors such as race, social status, age, and associated risk factors, we aim to optimize vaccine distribution to achieve various fairness definitions for one or more protected attributes at a time. Through extensive experiments conducted on Covid-19 spread in three major metropolitan areas across the United States, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach in reducing disease transmission and promoting fairness in vaccination distribution.

Arbitrariness and Social Prediction: The Confounding Role of Variance in Fair Classification

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Unveiling the Tapestry of Automated Essay Scoring: A Comprehensive Investigation of Accuracy, Fairness, and Generalizability

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Arbitrariness and Social Prediction: The Confounding Role of Variance in Fair Classification

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Next from AAAI 2024

Unveiling the Tapestry of Automated Essay Scoring: A Comprehensive Investigation of Accuracy, Fairness, and Generalizability

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CONFERENCES

COMPANY

RESOURCES

Downloads