Canada

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient method and has been widely used for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Recently, there has been a considerable interest in BO literature in optimizing functions that are affected by context variable in the environment, which is uncontrollable by decision makers. In this paper, we focus on the optimization of functions&#39; expectations over continuous context variable, subject to an unknown distribution. To address this problem, we propose two algorithms that employ kernel density estimation to learn the probability density function (PDF) of continuous context variable online. The first algorithm is simpler, which directly optimizes the expectation under the estimated PDF. Considering that the estimated PDF may have high estimation error when the true distribution is complicated, we further propose the second algorithm that optimizes the distributionally robust objective. Theoretical results demonstrate that both algorithms have sub-linear Bayesian cumulative regret on the expectation objective. Furthermore, we conduct numerical experiments to empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms.

AAAI 2024

Stochastic Bayesian Optimization with Unknown Continuous Context Distribution via Kernel Density Estimation

stochastic models & probabilistic inference

stochastic optimization

optimization

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient method and has been widely used for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Recently, there has been a considerable interest in BO literature in optimizing functions that are affected by context variable in the environment, which is uncontrollable by decision makers. In this paper, we focus on the optimization of functions' expectations over continuous context variable, subject to an unknown distribution. To address this problem, we propose two algorithms that employ kernel density estimation to learn the probability density function (PDF) of continuous context variable online. The first algorithm is simpler, which directly optimizes the expectation under the estimated PDF. Considering that the estimated PDF may have high estimation error when the true distribution is complicated, we further propose the second algorithm that optimizes the distributionally robust objective. Theoretical results demonstrate that both algorithms have sub-linear Bayesian cumulative regret on the expectation objective. Furthermore, we conduct numerical experiments to empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms.

technical paper

We are pleased to announce the Thirty-Eighth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-24), which will be held in Vancouver, British Columbia at the Vancouver Convention Centre – West Building from 20-27 February, 2024.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-24 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

We expect for AAAI-24 to be an in-person conference – one author of all accepted papers will be expected to present work in person unless there are exceptional circumstances that prevent this.<br><br><br><br>

In order to access the AAAI-24 event page you need to register [here](https://aaai.org/aaai-conference/registration/)

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. 

Disease control experts inspect public health data streams daily for outliers worth investigating, like those corresponding to data quality issues or disease outbreaks. However, they can only examine a few of the thousands of maximally-tied outliers returned by univariate outlier detection methods applied to large-scale public health data streams. To help experts distinguish the most important outliers from these thousands of tied outliers, we propose a new task for algorithms to rank the outputs of any univariate method applied to each of many streams. Our novel algorithm for this task, which leverages hierarchical networks and extreme value analysis, performed the best across traditional outlier detection metrics in a human-expert evaluation using public health data streams. Most importantly, experts have used our open-source Python implementation since April 2023 and report identifying outliers worth investigating 9.1x faster than their prior baseline. Other organizations can readily adapt this implementation to create rankings from the outputs of their tailored univariate methods across large-scale streams.

Outlier Ranking for Large-Scale Public Health Data

As machine learning workloads are significantly increasing energy consumption, sustainable data centers with low carbon emissions are becoming a top priority for governments and corporations worldwide. This requires a paradigm shift in optimizing power consumption in cooling and IT loads, shifting flexible loads based on the availability of renewable energy in the power grid, and leveraging battery storage from the uninterrupted power supply in data centers, using collaborative agents. The complex association between these optimization strategies and their dependencies on variable external factors like weather and the power grid carbon intensity makes this a hard problem. Currently, a real-time controller to optimize all these goals simultaneously in a dynamic real-world setting is lacking. We propose a Data Center Carbon Footprint Reduction (DC-CFR) multi-agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) framework that optimizes data centers for the multiple objectives of carbon footprint reduction, energy consumption, and energy cost. The results show that the DC-CFR MARL agents effectively resolved the complex interdependencies in optimizing cooling, load shifting, and energy storage in real-time for various locations under real-world dynamic weather and grid carbon intensity conditions. DC-CFR significantly outperformed the industry-standard ASHRAE controller with a considerable reduction in carbon emissions (14.5%), energy usage (14.4%), and energy cost (13.7%) when evaluated over one year across multiple geographical regions.

Carbon Footprint Reduction for Sustainable Data Centers in Real-Time

Marine mammals and their ecosystem face significant threats from, for example, military active sonar and marine transportation. To mitigate this harm, early detection and classification of marine mammals are essential. While recent efforts have utilized spectrogram analysis and machine learning techniques, there remain challenges in their efficiency. Therefore, we propose a novel knowledge distillation framework, named XCFSMN, for this problem. We construct a teacher model that fuses the features extracted from an X-vector extractor, a DenseNet and Cross-Covariance attended compact Feed-Forward Sequential Memory Network (cFSMN). The teacher model transfers knowledge to a simpler cFSMN model through a temperature-cooling strategy for efficient learning. Compared to multiple convolutional neural network backbones and transformers, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art efficiency and performance. The improved model size is approximately 20 times smaller and the inference time can be 10 times shorter without affecting the model’s accuracy.

Hear You Say You: An Effcient Framework for Marine Mammal Sounds’ Classification

Sea-level rise is a well-known consequence of climate change. Several studies have estimated the social and economic impact of the increase in extreme flooding. An efficient way to mitigate its consequences is the development of a flood alert and prediction system, based on high-resolution numerical models and robust sensing networks. However, current models use various simplifying assumptions that compromise accuracy to ensure solvability within a reasonable timeframe, hindering more regular and cost-effective forecasts for various locations along the shoreline. To address these issues, this work proposes a hybrid model for multimodal data processing that combines physics-based numerical simulations, data obtained from a network of sensors, and satellite images to provide refined wave and sea-surface height forecasts, with real results obtained in a critical location within the Port of Santos (the largest port in Latin America). Our approach exhibits faster convergence than data-driven models while achieving more accurate predictions. Moreover, the model handles irregularly sampled time series and missing data without the need for complex preprocessing mechanisms or data imputation while keeping low computational costs through a combination of time encoding, recurrent and graph neural networks. Enabling raw sensor data to be easily combined with existing physics-based models opens up new possibilities for accurate extreme storm tide events forecast systems that enhance community safety and aid policymakers in their decision-making processes.

Early Detection of Extreme Storm Tide Events Using Multimodal Data Processing

Accurate prediction of water quality and quantity is crucial for sustainable development and human well-being. However, existing data-driven methods often suffer from spatial biases in model performance due to heterogeneous data, limited observations, and noisy sensor data. To overcome these challenges, we propose Fair-Graph, a novel graph-based recurrent neural network that leverages interrelated knowledge from multiple rivers to predict water flow and temperature within large-scale stream networks. Additionally, we introduce node-specific graph masks for information aggregation and adaptation to enhance prediction over heterogeneous river segments. To reduce performance disparities across river segments, we introduce a centralized coordination strategy that adjusts training priorities for segments. We evaluate the prediction of water temperature within the Delaware River Basin, and the prediction of streamflow using simulated data from U.S. National Water Model in the Houston River network. The results showcase improvements in predictive performance and highlight the proposed model's ability to maintain spatial fairness over different river segments.

Fair Graph Learning Using Constraint-Aware Priority Adjustment and Graph Masking in River Networks

Indirect surveys, in which respondents provide information about other people they know, have been proposed for estimating (nowcasting) the size of a hidden population where privacy is important or the hidden population is hard to reach. Examples include estimating casualties in an earthquake, conditions among female sex workers, and the prevalence of drug use and infectious diseases. The Network Scale-up Method (NSUM) is the classical approach to developing estimates from indirect surveys, but it was designed for one-shot surveys. Further, it requires certain assumptions and asking for or estimating the number of individuals in each respondent's network. In recent years, surveys have been increasingly deployed online and can collect data continuously (e.g., COVID-19 surveys on Facebook during much of the pandemic). Conventional NSUM can be applied to these scenarios by analyzing the data independently at each point in time, but this misses the opportunity of leveraging the temporal dimension. We propose to use the responses from indirect surveys collected over time and develop analytical tools (i)  to prove that indirect surveys can provide better estimates for the trends of the hidden population over time, as compared to direct surveys and (ii) to identify appropriate temporal aggregations to improve the estimates. We demonstrate through extensive simulations that our approach outperforms traditional NSUM and direct surveying methods. We also empirically demonstrate the superiority of our approach on a real indirect survey dataset of COVID-19 cases.

Nowcasting Temporal Trends Using Indirect Surveys

Many individuals are likely to face a legal dispute at some point in their lives, but their lack of understanding of how to navigate these complex issues often renders them vulnerable. The advancement of natural language processing opens new avenues for bridging this legal literacy gap through the development of automated legal aid systems. However, existing legal question answering (LQA) approaches often suffer from a narrow scope, being either confined to specific legal domains or limited to brief, uninformative responses. In this work, we propose an end-to-end methodology designed to generate long-form answers to any statutory law questions, utilizing a "retrieve-then-read" pipeline. To support this approach, we introduce and release the Long-form Legal Question Answering (LLeQA) dataset, comprising 1,868 expert-annotated legal questions in the French language, complete with detailed answers rooted in pertinent legal provisions. Our experimental results demonstrate promising performance on automatic evaluation metrics, but a qualitative analysis uncovers areas for refinement. As one of the only comprehensive, expert-annotated long-form LQA dataset, LLeQA has the potential to not only accelerate research towards resolving a significant real-world issue, but also act as a rigorous benchmark for evaluating NLP models in specialized domains. We publicly release our code, data, and models.

Interpretable Long-Form Legal Question Answering with Retrieval-Augmented Large Language Models

Predictive analytics has been widely used in various domains, including education, to inform decision-making and improve outcomes. However, many predictive models are proprietary and inaccessible for evaluation or modification by researchers and practitioners, limiting their accountability and ethical design. Moreover, predictive models are often opaque and incomprehensible to the officials who use them, reducing their trust and utility. Furthermore, predictive models may introduce or exacerbate bias and inequity, as they have done in many sectors of society. Therefore, there is a need for transparent, interpretable, and fair predictive models that can be easily adopted and adapted by different stakeholders. In this paper, we propose a fair predictive model based on multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) that incorporates fairness measures in the learning process. MARS is a non-parametric regression model that performs feature selection, handles non-linear relationships, generates interpretable decision rules, and derives optimal splitting criteria on the variables. Specifically, we integrate fairness into the knot optimization algorithm and provide theoretical and empirical evidence of how it results in a fair knot placement. We apply our fair MARS model to real-world data and demonstrate its effectiveness in terms of accuracy and equity. Our paper contributes to the advancement of responsible and ethical predictive analytics for social good.

FairMARS: A Statistical Model That Prioritizes Equity and Transparency | VIDEO

Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, and early diagnosis of lung cancer is critical for improving the survival rate of patients. Performing annual low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening among high-risk populations is the primary approach for early diagnosis. However, after each screening, whether to continue monitoring (with follow-up screenings) or to order a biopsy for diagnosis remains a challenging decision to make. Continuing with follow-up screenings may lead to delayed diagnosis but ordering a biopsy without sufficient evidence incurs unnecessary risk and cost. In this paper, we tackle the problem by an optimal stopping approach. Our proposed algorithm, called EarlyStop-RL, utilizes the structure of the Snell envelope for optimal stopping, and model-free deep reinforcement learning for making diagnosis decisions. Through evaluating our algorithm on a commonly used clinical trial dataset (the National Lung Screening Trial), we demonstrate that EarlyStop-RL has the potential to greatly enhance risk assessment and early diagnosis of lung cancer, surpassing the performance of two widely adopted clinical models, namely the Lung-RADS and the Brock model.

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Early Diagnosis of Lung Cancer

Rental assistance programs provide individuals with financial assistance to prevent housing instabilities caused by evictions and avert homelessness. Since these programs operate under resource constraints, they must decide who to prioritize. Typically, funding is distributed by a reactive allocation process that does not systematically consider risk of future homelessness. We partnered with Anonymous County (PA) to explore a proactive and preventative allocation approach that prioritizes individuals facing eviction based on their risk of future homelessness. Our ML models, trained on state and county administrative data accurately identify at-risk individuals, outperforming simpler prioritization approaches by at least 20% while meeting our equity and fairness goals across race and gender. Furthermore, our approach would reach 28% of individuals who are overlooked by the current process and end up homeless. Beyond improvements to the rental assistance program in Anonymous County, this study can inform the development of evidence-based decision support tools in similar contexts, including lessons about data needs, model design, evaluation, and field validation.

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Stochastic Bayesian Optimization with Unknown Continuous Context Distribution via Kernel Density Estimation

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Outlier Ranking for Large-Scale Public Health Data

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