Canada

Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility forecasting: the stochastic approach and the neural network (NN) approach. Despite their individual strengths, these methodologies have conventionally evolved in separate research trajectories with little interaction between them. This study endeavors to bridge this gap by establishing an equivalence relationship between models of the GARCH family and their corresponding NN counterparts. With the equivalence relationship established, we introduce an innovative approach, named GARCH-NN, for constructing NN-based volatility models. It obtains the NN counterparts of GARCH models and integrates them as components into an established NN architecture, thereby seamlessly infusing volatility stylized facts (SFs) inherent in the GARCH models into the neural network. We develop the GARCH-LSTM model to showcase the power of GARCH-NN approach. Experiment results validate that amalgamating the NN counterparts of the GARCH family models into established NN models leads to enhanced outcomes compared to employing the stochastic and NN models in isolation.

AAAI 2024

From GARCH to Neural Network for Volatility Forecast | VIDEO

forecast

garch-nn

equivalence

volatility

technical paper

We are pleased to announce the Thirty-Eighth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-24), which will be held in Vancouver, British Columbia at the Vancouver Convention Centre – West Building from 20-27 February, 2024.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-24 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

We expect for AAAI-24 to be an in-person conference – one author of all accepted papers will be expected to present work in person unless there are exceptional circumstances that prevent this.<br><br><br><br>

In order to access the AAAI-24 event page you need to register [here](https://aaai.org/aaai-conference/registration/)

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. 

Learning from open-world noisy data, where both closed-set and open-set noise co-exist in the dataset, is a realistic but underexplored setting. Only recently, several efforts have been initialized to tackle this problem. However, these works assume the classes are balanced when dealing with open-world noisy data. This assumption often violates the nature of real-world large-scale datasets, where the label distributions are generally long-tailed, i.e. class-imbalanced. In this paper, we study the problem of robust visual recognition with class-imbalanced open-world noisy data. We propose a probabilistic graphical model-based approach: iMRF to achieve label noise correction that is robust to class imbalance via an efficient iterative inference of a Markov Random Field (MRF) in each training mini-batch. Furthermore, we design an agreement-based thresholding strategy to adaptively collect clean samples from all classes that includes corrected closed-set noisy samples while rejecting open-set noisy samples. We also introduce a noise-aware balanced cross-entropy loss to explicitly eliminate the bias caused by class-imbalanced data. Extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets including synthetic and real-world noisy datasets demonstrate the superior performance robustness of our method over existing methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/Na-Z/LIOND.

Robust Visual Recognition with Class-Imbalanced Open-World Noisy Data

We address the challenging problem of Long-Tailed Semi-Supervised Learning (LTSSL) where labeled data exhibit imbalanced class distribution and unlabeled data follow an unknown distribution. Unlike in balanced SSL, the generated pseudo-labels are skewed towards head classes, intensifying the training bias. Such a phenomenon is even amplified as more unlabeled data will be mislabeled as head classes when the class distribution of labeled and unlabeled datasets are mismatched. To solve this problem, we propose a novel method named ComPlementary Experts (CPE). Specifically, we train multiple experts to model various class distributions, each of them yielding high-quality pseudo-labels within one form of class distribution. Besides, we introduce Classwise Batch Normalization for CPE to avoid performance degradation caused by feature distribution mismatch between head and non-head classes. CPE achieves state-of-the-art performances on CIFAR-10-LT, CIFAR-100-LT, and STL-10-LT dataset benchmarks. For instance, on CIFAR-10-LT, CPE improves test accuracy by over >2.22% compared to baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/machengcheng2016/CPE-LTSSL.

Three Heads Are Better than One: Complementary Experts for Long-Tailed Semi-supervised Learning | VIDEO

Interactive segmentation methods rely on user inputs to iteratively update the selection mask. A click specifying the object of interest is arguably the most simple and intuitive interaction type, and thereby the most common choice for interactive segmentation. However, user clicking patterns in the interactive segmentation context remain unexplored. Accordingly, interactive segmentation evaluation strategies rely more on intuition and common sense rather than empirical studies (e.g., assuming that users tend to click in the center of the area with the largest error). In this work, we conduct a real-user study to investigate real user clicking patterns. This study reveals that the intuitive assumption made in the common evaluation strategy may not hold. As a result, interactive segmentation models may show high scores in the standard benchmarks, but it does not imply that they would perform well in a real world scenario. To assess the applicability of interactive segmentation methods, we propose a novel evaluation strategy providing a more comprehensive analysis of a model's performance. To this end, we propose a methodology for finding extreme user inputs by a direct optimization in a white-box adversarial attack on the interactive segmentation model. Based on the performance with such adversarial user inputs, we assess the robustness of interactive segmentation models w.r.t click positions. Besides, we introduce a novel benchmark for measuring the robustness of interactive segmentation, and report the results of an extensive evaluation of dozens of models.

TETRIS: Towards Exploring the Robustness of Interactive Segmentation | VIDEO

In this paper, we study an underexplored, yet important and challenging problem: counting the number of distinct sounds in raw audio characterized by a high degree of polyphonicity. We do so by systematically proposing a novel end-to-end trainable neural network~(which we call DyDecNet, consisting of a dyadic decomposition front-end and backbone network), and quantifying the difficulty level of counting depending on sound polyphonicity. The dyadic decomposition front-end progressively decomposes the raw waveform dyadically along the frequency axis to obtain time-frequency representation in multi-stage, coarse-to-fine manner. Each intermediate waveform convolved by a parent filter is further processed by a pair of child filters that evenly split the parent filter's carried frequency response, with the higher-half child filter encoding the detail and lower-half child filter encoding the approximation. We further introduce an energy gain normalization to normalize sound loudness variance and spectrum overlap, and apply it to each intermediate parent waveform before feeding it to the two child filters. To better quantify sound counting difficulty level, we further design three polyphony-aware metrics: polyphony ratio, max polyphony and mean polyphony. We test DyDecNet on various datasets to show its superiority, and we further show dyadic decomposition network can be used as a general front-end to tackle other acoustic tasks.

SoundCount: Sound Counting from Raw Audio with Dyadic Decomposition Neural Network

Samplers are the backbone of the implementations of any randomised algorithm. Unfortunately, obtaining an efficient algorithm to test the correctness of samplers is very hard to find. Recently, in a series of works, testers like $\mathsf{Barbarik}$, $\mathsf{Teq}$, $\mathsf{Flash}$ for testing of some particular kinds of samplers, like CNF-samplers and Horn-samplers, were obtained. But their techniques have a significant limitation because one can not expect to use their methods to test for other samplers, such as perfect matching samplers or samplers for sampling linear extensions in posets. 
In this paper, we present a new testing algorithm that works for such samplers and can estimate the distance of a new sampler from a known sampler (say, uniform sampler).  

Testing the identity of distributions is the heart of testing the correctness of samplers. This paper's main technical contribution is developing a new distance estimation algorithm for distributions over high-dimensional cubes using the recently proposed sub-cube conditioning sampling model. Given subcube conditioning access to an unknown distribution $P$, and a known distribution $Q$ defined over $\{0,1\}^n$, our algorithm $\mathsf{CubeProbeEst}$ estimates the variation distance between $P$ and $Q$ within additive error $\zeta$ using $\mathcal{O}({n^2}/{\zeta^4})$ subcube conditional samples from $P$.  Following the testing-via-learning paradigm, we also get a tester which distinguishes between the cases when $P$ and $Q$ are $\varepsilon$-close or $\eta$-far in variation distance with probability at least $0.99$ using $\mathcal{O}({n^2}/{(\eta-\varepsilon)^4})$ subcube conditional samples.

The estimation algorithm in the subcube conditioning sampling model helps us to design the first tester for self-reducible samplers. The correctness of the testers is formally proved. Moreover, we implement $\mathsf{CubeProbeEst}$ to test the quality of three samplers for sampling linear extensions in posets.

Testing Self-Reducible Samplers

We study the fair division of indivisible items with subsidies among $n$ agents, where the absolute marginal valuation of each item is at most one. Under monotone valuations (where each item is a good), Brustle et al. demonstrated that a maximum subsidy of $2(n-1)$ and a total subsidy of $2(n-1)^2$ are sufficient to guarantee the existence of an envy-freeable allocation. In this paper, we improve upon these bounds, even in a wider model. Namely, we show that, given an EF1 allocation, we can compute in polynomial time an envy-free allocation with a subsidy of at most $n-1$ per agent and a total subsidy of at most $n(n-1)/2$. Moreover, we present further improved bounds for monotone valuations.

Towards Optimal Subsidy Bounds for Envy-Freeable Allocations

Dynamics model learning deals with the task of inferring unknown dynamics from measurement data and predicting the future behavior of the system. A typical approach to address this problem is to train recurrent models. However, predictions with these models are often not physically meaningful. Further, they suffer from deteriorated behavior over time due to accumulating errors. Often, simulators building on first principles are available being physically meaningful by design. However, modeling simplifications typically cause inaccuracies in these models. Consequently, hybrid modeling is an emerging trend that aims to combine the best of both worlds. In this paper, we propose a new approach to hybrid modeling, where we inform the latent states of a learned model via a black-box simulator. This allows to control the predictions via the simulator preventing them from accumulating errors. This is especially challenging since, in contrast to previous approaches, access to the simulator's latent states is not available. We tackle the task by leveraging observers, a well-known concept from control theory, inferring unknown latent states from observations and dynamics over time. In our learning-based setting, we jointly learn the dynamics and an observer that infers the latent states via the simulator. Thus, the simulator constantly corrects the latent states, compensating for modeling mismatch caused by learning. To maintain flexibility, we train an RNN-based residuum for the latent states that cannot be informed by the simulator.

Learning Hybrid Dynamics Models with Simulator-Informed Latent States

Algebraic data types (ADTs) are a construct classically found in functional programming languages that capture data structures like enumerated types, lists, and trees. In recent years, interest in ADTs has increased. For example, popular programming languages, like Python, have added support for ADTs. Automated reasoning about ADTs can be done using satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) solving, an extension of the Boolean satisfiability problem with first-order logic and associated background theories. Unfortunately, SMT solvers that support ADTs do not scale as state-of-the-art approaches all use variations of the same lazy approach. In this paper, we present an SMT solver that takes a fundamentally different approach, an eager approach. Specifically, our solver reduces ADT queries to a simpler logical theory, uninterpreted functions (UF), and then uses an existing solver on the reduced query. We prove the soundness and completeness of our approach and demonstrate that it outperforms the state of the art on existing benchmarks, as well as a new, more challenging benchmark set from the planning domain.

An Eager Satisfiability Modulo Theories Solver for Algebraic Datatypes

We investigate a two-stage competitive model involving multiple contests. In this model, each contest designer chooses two participants from a pool of candidate contestants and determines the biases. Contestants strategically distribute their efforts across various contests within their budget. We first show the existence of a pure strategy Nash equilibrium (PNE) for the contestants, and propose a polynomial-time algorithm to compute an $\epsilon$-approximate PNE. In the scenario where designers simultaneously decide the participants and biases, the subgame perfect equilibrium (SPE) may not exist. Nonetheless, when designers' decisions are made in two substages, the existence of SPE is established. In the scenario where designers can hold multiple contests, we show that the SPE always exists under mild conditions and can be computed efficiently.

Competition among Pairwise Lottery Contests

With the boom of Large Language Models (LLMs), the research of solving Math Word Problem (MWP) has recently made great progress. However, there are few studies to examine the robustness of LLMs in math solving ability. Instead of attacking prompts in the use of LLMs, we propose a MathAttack model to attack MWP samples which are closer to the essence of robustness in solving math problems. Compared to traditional text adversarial attack, it is essential to preserve the mathematical logic of original MWPs during the attacking. To this end, we propose logical entity recognition to identify logical entries which are then frozen. Subsequently, the remaining text are attacked by adopting a word-level attacker. Furthermore, we propose a new dataset RobustMath to evaluate the robustness of LLMs in math solving ability. Extensive experiments on our RobustMath and two another math benchmark datasets GSM8K and MultiAirth show that MathAttack could effectively attack the math solving ability of LLMs. In the experiments, we observe that (1) Our adversarial samples from higher-accuracy LLMs are also effective for attacking LLMs with lower accuracy (e.g., transfer from larger to smaller-size LLMs, or from few-shot to zero-shot prompts); (2) Complex MWPs (such as more solving steps, longer text, more numbers) are more vulnerable to attack; (3) We can improve the robustness of LLMs by using our adversarial samples in few-shot prompts. Finally, we hope our practice and observation can serve as an important attempt towards enhancing the robustness of LLMs in math solving ability. The code and dataset is available at: https://github.com/zhouzihao501/MathAttack.

From GARCH to Neural Network for Volatility Forecast | VIDEO

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Robust Visual Recognition with Class-Imbalanced Open-World Noisy Data

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From GARCH to Neural Network for Volatility Forecast | VIDEO

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Robust Visual Recognition with Class-Imbalanced Open-World Noisy Data

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PRESENTATIONS

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RESOURCES

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