Canada

Financial forecasting has been an important and active area of machine learning research, as even the most modest advantages in predictive accuracy can be parlayed into significant financial gains. Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) bring the opportunity to leverage textual data, such as earnings reports of publicly traded companies, to predict the return rate for an asset. However, when dealing with such a sensitive task, the consistency of models -- their invariance under meaning-preserving alternations in input -- is a crucial property for building user trust. Despite this, current methods for financial forecasting do not take consistency into consideration. To address this issue, we propose FinTrust, an evaluation tool that assesses logical consistency in financial text. Using FinTrust, we show that the consistency of state-of-the-art NLP models for financial forecasting is poor. Our analysis of the performance degradation caused by meaning-preserving alternations suggests that current text-based methods are not suitable for robustly predicting market information.

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ACL 2023

Measuring Consistency in Text-based Financial Forecasting Models

financial forecasting

consistency

robustness

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

AAAI 2022

Financial forecasting has been an important and active area of machine learning research, as even the most modest advantages in predictive accuracy can be parlayed into significant financial gains. Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) bring the opportunity to leverage textual data, such as earnings reports of publicly traded companies, to predict the return rate for an asset. However, when dealing with such a sensitive task, the consistency of models -- their invariance under meaning-preserving alternations in input -- is a crucial property for building user trust. Despite this, current methods for financial forecasting do not take consistency into consideration. To address this issue, we propose FinTrust, an evaluation tool that assesses logical consistency in financial text. Using FinTrust, we show that the consistency of state-of-the-art NLP models for financial forecasting is poor. Our analysis of the performance degradation caused by meaning-preserving alternations suggests that current text-based methods are not suitable for robustly predicting market information.

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poster

### Welcome to ACL 2023, the 61st Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics! 
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##### **[Conference Handbook](https://2023.aclweb.org/downloads/acl2023-handbook.pdf)**
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The Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL) is the premier international scientific and professional society for people working on computational problems involving human language, a field often referred to as either computational linguistics or natural language processing.

In recent years, Multimodal Named Entity Recognition (MNER) on social media has attracted considerable attention. However, existing MNER studies only extract entity-type pairs in text, which is useless for multimodal knowledge graph construction and insufficient for entity disambiguation. To solve these issues, in this work, we introduce a Grounded Multimodal Named Entity Recognition (GMNER) task. Given a text-image social post, GMNER aims to identify the named entities in text, their entity types, and their bounding box groundings in image (i.e. visual regions). To tackle the GMNER task, we construct a Twitter dataset based on two existing MNER datasets. Moreover, we extend four well-known MNER methods to establish a number of baseline systems and further propose a Hierarchical Index generation framework named H-Index, which generates the entity-type-region triples in a hierarchical manner with a sequence-to-sequence model. Experiment results on our annotated dataset demonstrate the superiority of our H-Index framework over baseline systems on the GMNER task.

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Grounded Multimodal Named Entity Recognition on Social Media

The attention mechanism is a powerful and effective method utilized in natural language processing. However, it has been observed that this method is insensitive to positional information. Although several studies have attempted to improve positional encoding and investigate the influence of word order perturbation, it remains unclear how positional encoding impacts NLP models from the perspective of word order. In this paper, we aim to shed light on this problem by analyzing the working mechanism of the attention module and investigating the root cause of its inability to encode positional information. Our hypothesis is that the insensitivity can be attributed to the weight sum operation utilized in the attention module. To verify this hypothesis, we propose a novel weight concatenation operation and evaluate its efficacy in neural machine translation tasks. Our enhanced experimental results not only reveal that the proposed operation can effectively encode positional information but also confirm our hypothesis.

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Interpreting Positional Information in Perspective of Word Order

In work on AMR (Abstract Meaning Representation), similarity metrics are crucial as they are used to evaluate AMR systems such as AMR parsers. Current AMR metrics are all based on nodes or triples matching without considering the entire structures of AMR graphs. To address this problem, and inspired by learned similarity evaluation on plain text, we propose AMRSim, an automatic AMR graph similarity evaluation metric. To overcome the high cost of collecting human-annotated data, AMRSim automatically generates silver AMR graphs and utilizes self-supervised learning methods. We evaluated AMRSim on various datasets and found that AMRSim significantly improves the correlations with human semantic scores and remains robust under diverse challenges. We also discuss how AMRSim can be extended to multilingual cases.

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Evaluate AMR Graph Similarity via Self-supervised Learning

Traditional machine translation evaluation relies on reference written by humans. While reference-free evaluation gets rid of the constraints of labor-intensive annotations, which can pivot easily to new domains and is more scalable. In this paper, we propose a reference-free evaluation approach that characterizes evaluation as two aspects: (1) fluency: how well the translated text conforms to normal human language usage; (2) faithfulness: how well the translated text reflects the source data. We further split the faithfulness into word-level and sentence-level. Extensive experiments spanning WMT18/19/21 Metrics segment-level daRR and MQM datasets demonstrate that our proposed reference-free approach, ReFreeEval, outperforms SOTA reference-fee metrics like YiSi-2.

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A Holistic Approach to Reference-Free Evaluation of Machine Translation

We present EPIC (English Perspectivist Irony Corpus), the first annotated corpus for irony analysis based on the principles of data perspectivism. The corpus contains short conversations from social media in five regional varieties of English, and it is annotated by contributors from five countries corresponding to those varieties. We analyse the resource along the perspectives induced by the diversity of the annotators, in terms of origin, age, and gender, and the relationship between these dimensions, irony, and the topics of conversation. We validate EPIC by creating perspective-aware models that encode the perspectives of annotators grouped according to their demographic characteristics. Firstly, the performance of perspectivist models confirms that different annotators induce very different models. Secondly, in the classification of ironic and non-ironic texts, perspectivist models prove to be generally more confident than the non-perspectivist ones. Furthermore, comparing the performance on a perspective-based test set with those achieved on a gold standard test set, we can observe how perspectivist models tend to detect more precisely the positive class, showing their ability to capture the different perceptions of irony. Thanks to these models, we are moreover able to show interesting insights about the variation in the perception of irony by the different groups of annotators, such as among different generations and nationalities.

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EPIC: Multi-Perspective Annotation of a Corpus of Irony

Ontological knowledge, which comprises classes and properties and their relationships, is integral to world knowledge. It is significant to explore whether Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) know and understand such knowledge. However, existing PLM-probing studies focus mainly on factual knowledge, lacking a system- atic probing of ontological knowledge. In this paper, we focus on probing whether PLMs store ontological knowledge and have a semantic un- derstanding of the knowledge rather than rote memorization of the surface form. To probe whether PLMs know ontological knowledge, we investigate how well PLMs memorize: (1) types of entities; (2) hierarchical relationships among classes and properties, e.g., Person is a subclass of Animal and Member of Sports Team is a subproperty of Member of ; (3) domain and range constraints of properties, e.g., the subject of Member of Sports Team should be a Person and the object should be a Sports Team. To further probe whether PLMs truly understand ontological knowledge beyond memorization, we comprehensively study whether they can reliably perform logical reasoning with given knowledge according to ontological entailment rules. Our probing results show that PLMs can memorize certain ontological knowledge and utilize implicit knowledge in reasoning. How- ever, both the memorizing and reasoning per- formances are less than perfect, indicating in- complete knowledge and understanding.

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Do PLMs Know and Understand Ontological Knowledge?

Emotion Recognition in Conversations (ERC) is an increasingly popular task in the Natural Language Processing community, which seeks to achieve accurate emotion classifications of utterances expressed by speakers during a conversation. Most existing approaches focus on modeling speaker and contextual information based on the textual modality, while the complementarity of multimodal information has not been well leveraged, few current methods have sufficiently captured the complex correlations and mapping relationships across different modalities. Furthermore, existing state-of-the-art ERC models have difficulty classifying minority and semantically similar emotion categories. To address these challenges, we propose a novel attention-based correlation-aware multimodal fusion framework named MultiEMO, which effectively integrates multimodal cues by capturing cross-modal mapping relationships across textual, audio and visual modalities based on bidirectional multi-head cross-attention layers. The difficulty of recognizing minority and semantically hard-to-distinguish emotion classes is alleviated by our proposed Sample-Weighted Focal Contrastive (SWFC) loss. Extensive experiments on two benchmark ERC datasets demonstrate that our MultiEMO framework consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches in all emotion categories on both datasets, the improvements in minority and semantically similar emotions are especially significant.

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MultiEMO: An Attention-Based Correlation-Aware Multimodal Fusion Framework for Emotion Recognition in Conversations

In this paper, we study the task of instructional dialogue and focus on the cooking domain. Analyzing the generated output of the GPT-J model, we reveal that the primary challenge for a recipe-grounded dialog system is how to provide the instructions in the correct order. We hypothesize that this is due to the model's lack of understanding of user intent and inability to track the instruction state (i.e., which step was last instructed). Therefore, we propose to explore two auxiliary subtasks, namely User Intent Detection and Instruction State Tracking, to support Response Generation with improved instruction grounding. Experimenting with our newly collected dataset, ChattyChef, shows that incorporating user intent and instruction state information helps the response generation model mitigate the incorrect order issue. Furthermore, to investigate whether ChatGPT has completely solved this task, we analyze its outputs and find that it also makes mistakes (10.7% of the responses), about half of which are out-of-order instructions. We will release ChattyChef to facilitate further research in this area at: https://github.com/octaviaguo/ChattyChef.

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Improved Instruction Ordering in Recipe-Grounded Conversation

The increasing number of benchmarks for Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks in the computational job market domain highlights the demand for methods that can handle job-related tasks such as skill extraction, skill classification, job title classification, and de-identification. While some approaches have been developed that are specific to the job market domain, there is a lack of generalized, multilingual models and benchmarks for these tasks. In this study, we introduce a language model called ESCOXLM-R, based on XLM-R-large, which uses domain-adaptive pre-training on the European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO) taxonomy, covering 27 languages. The pre-training objectives for ESCOXLM-R include dynamic masked language modeling and a novel additional objective for inducing multilingual taxonomical ESCO relations. We comprehensively evaluate the performance of ESCOXLM-R on 6 sequence labeling and 3 classification tasks in 4 languages and find that it achieves state-of-the-art results on 6 out of 9 datasets. Our analysis reveals that ESCOXLM-R performs better on short spans and outperforms XLM-R-large on entity-level and surface-level span-F1, likely due to ESCO containing short skill and occupation titles, and encoding information on the entity-level.

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ESCOXLM-R: Multilingual Taxonomy-driven Pre-training for the Job Market Domain

In quantitative question answering, compositional generalization is one of the main challenges of state of the art models, especially when longer sequences of reasoning steps are required. In this paper we propose CounterComp, a method that uses counterfactual scenarios to generate samples with compositional contrast. Instead of a data augmentation approach, CounterComp is based on metric learning, which allows for direct sampling from the training set and circumvents the need for additional human labels. Our proposed auxiliary metric learning loss improves the performance of three state of the art models on four recently released datasets. We also show how the approach can improve OOD performance on unseen domains, as well as unseen compositions. Lastly, we demonstrate how the method can lead to better compositional attention patterns during training.

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