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The Moran process is a classic stochastic process that models invasion dynamics on graphs. A single mutant (e.g., a new opinion, strain, social trait etc.) invades a population of residents spread over the nodes of a graph. The mutant fitness advantage Î´&gt;=0 determines how aggressively mutants propagate to their neighbors. The quantity of interest is the fixation probability, i.e., the probability that the initial mutant eventually takes over the whole population. However, in realistic settings, the invading mutant has an advantage only in certain locations. E.g., the ability to metabolize a certain sugar is an advantageous trait to bacteria only when the sugar is actually present in their surroundings. In this paper we introduce the positional Moran process, a natural generalization in which the mutant fitness advantage is only realized on specific nodes called active nodes, and study the problem of fixation maximization: given a budget k, choose a set of k active nodes that maximize the fixation probability of the invading mutant. We show that the problem is NP-hard, while the optimization function is not submodular, thus indicating strong computational hardness. We focus on two natural limits. In the limit of Î´ to infinity (strong selection), although the problem remains NP-hard, the optimization function becomes submodular and thus admits a constant-factor approximation using a simple greedy algorithm. In the limit of Î´ to 0 (weak selection), we show that we can obtain a tight approximation in O(n^{2Ã—Ï‰}) time, where Ï‰ is the matrix-multiplication exponent. An experimental evaluation of the new algorithms along with some proposed heuristics corroborates our results.

AAAI 2022

Fixation Maximization in the Positional Moran Process

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
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AAAI 2023

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

The Moran process is a classic stochastic process that models invasion dynamics on graphs. A single mutant (e.g., a new opinion, strain, social trait etc.) invades a population of residents spread over the nodes of a graph. The mutant fitness advantage Î´>=0 determines how aggressively mutants propagate to their neighbors. The quantity of interest is the fixation probability, i.e., the probability that the initial mutant eventually takes over the whole population. However, in realistic settings, the invading mutant has an advantage only in certain locations. E.g., the ability to metabolize a certain sugar is an advantageous trait to bacteria only when the sugar is actually present in their surroundings. In this paper we introduce the positional Moran process, a natural generalization in which the mutant fitness advantage is only realized on specific nodes called active nodes, and study the problem of fixation maximization: given a budget k, choose a set of k active nodes that maximize the fixation probability of the invading mutant. We show that the problem is NP-hard, while the optimization function is not submodular, thus indicating strong computational hardness. We focus on two natural limits. In the limit of Î´ to infinity (strong selection), although the problem remains NP-hard, the optimization function becomes submodular and thus admits a constant-factor approximation using a simple greedy algorithm. In the limit of Î´ to 0 (weak selection), we show that we can obtain a tight approximation in O(n^{2Ã—Ï‰}) time, where Ï‰ is the matrix-multiplication exponent. An experimental evaluation of the new algorithms along with some proposed heuristics corroborates our results.

technical paper

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

In recent years, joint text-image embeddings have significantly improved thanks to the development of transformer-based Vision-Language models. Despite these advances, we still need to better understand the representations produced by those models. In this paper, we compare pre-trained and fine-tuned representations at a vision, language and multimodal level. To that end, we use a set of probing tasks to evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art Vision-Language models and introduce new datasets specifically for multimodal probing. These datasets are carefully designed to address a range of multimodal capabilities while minimizing the potential for models to rely on bias. Although the results confirm the ability of Vision-Language models to understand color at a multimodal level, the models seem to prefer relying on bias in text data for object position and size. On semantically adversarial examples, we find that those models are able to pinpoint fine-grained multimodal differences. Finally, we also notice that fine-tuning a Vision-Language model on multimodal tasks does not necessarily improve its multimodal ability. We make all datasets and code available to replicate experiments.

Are Vision-Language Transformers Learning Multimodal Representations? A Probing Perspective.

Unsupervised video object segmentation (UVOS) is a per-pixel binary labeling problem which aims at separating the foreground object from the background in the video without using the ground truth (GT) mask of the foreground object. Most of the previous UVOS models use the first frame or the entire video as a reference frame to specify the mask of the foreground object. Our question is why the first frame should be selected as a reference frame or why the entire video should be used to specify the mask. We believe that we can select a better reference frame to achieve the better UVOS performance than using only the first frame or the entire video as a reference frame. In our paper, we propose Easy Frame Selector (EFS). The EFS enables us to select an "easy" reference frame that makes the subsequent VOS become easy, thereby improving the VOS performance. Furthermore, we propose a new framework named as Iterative Mask Prediction (IMP). In the framework, we repeat applying EFS to the given video and selecting an "easier" reference frame from the video than the previous iteration, increasing the VOS performance incrementally. The IMP consists of EFS, Bi-directional Mask Prediction (BMP), and Temporal Information Updating (TIU). From the proposed framework, we achieve state-of-the-art performance in three UVOS benchmark sets: DAVIS16, FBMS, and SegTrack-V2.

Iteratively Selecting an Easy Reference Frame Makes Unsupervised Video Object Segmentation Easier

Knowledge Distillation (KD), which is an effective model compression and acceleration technique, has been successfully applied to graph neural networks (GNNs) recently. Existing approaches utilize a single GNN model as the teacher to distill knowledge. However, we notice that GNN models with different number of layers demonstrate different classification abilities on nodes with different degrees. On the one hand, for nodes with high degrees, their local structures are dense and complex, hence more message passing is needed. Therefore, GNN models with more layers perform better. On the other hand, for nodes with low degrees, whose local structures are relatively sparse and simple, the repeated message passing can easily lead to over-smoothing. Thus, GNN models with less layers are more suitable. However, existing single-teacher GNN knowledge distillation approaches which are based on a single GNN model, are sub-optimal. To this end, we propose a novel approach to distill multi-scale knowledge, which learns from multiple GNN teacher models with different number of layers to capture the topological semantic at different scales. Instead of learning from the teacher models equally, the proposed method automatically assigns proper weights for each teacher model via an attention mechanism which enables the student to select teachers for different local structures. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate the proposed method on four public datasets. The experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method over state-of-the-art methods. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/NKU-IIPLab/MSKD.

Multi-Scale Distillation from Multiple Graph Neural Networks

Automated fact-checking is a needed technology to curtail the spread of online misinformation. One current framework for such solutions proposes to verify claims by retrieving supporting or refuting evidence from related textual sources. However, the realistic use cases for fact-checkers will require verifying claims against evidence sources that could be affected by the same misinformation. Furthermore, the development of modern NLP tools that can produce coherent, fabricated content would allow malicious actors to systematically generate adversarial disinformation for fact-checkers.
  
In this work, we explore the sensitivity of automated fact-checkers to synthetic adversarial evidence in two simulated settings: ADVERSARIAL ADDITION, where we fabricate documents and add them to the evidence repository available to the fact-checking system, and ADVERSARIAL MODIFICATION, where existing evidence source documents in the repository are automatically altered. Our study across multiple models on three benchmarks demonstrates that these systems suffer significant performance drops against these attacks. Finally, we discuss the growing threat of modern NLG systems as generators of disinformation in the context of the challenges they pose to automated fact-checkers.

Synthetic Disinformation Attacks on Automated Fact Verification Systems

Despite the remarkable performance of graph neural networks (GNNs) in semi-supervised learning, it is criticized for not making full use of unlabeled data and suffering from over-fitting. Recently, graph data augmentation, used to improve both accuracy and generalization of GNNs, has received considerable attentions. However, one fundamental question is how to evaluate the quality of graph augmentations in principle? In this paper, we propose two metrics, Consistency and Diversity, from the aspects of augmentation correctness and generalization. Moreover, we discover that existing augmentations fall into a dilemma between these two metrics. Can we find a graph augmentation satisfying both consistency and diversity? A well-informed answer can help us understand the mechanism behind graph augmentation and improve the performance of GNNs. To tackle this challenge, we analyze two representative semi-supervised learning algorithms: label propagation (LP) and consistency regularization (CR). We find that LP utilizes the prior knowledge of graphs to improve consistency and CR adopts variable augmentations to promote diversity. Based on this discovery, we treat neighbors as augmentations to capture the prior knowledge embodying homophily assumption, which promises a high consistency of augmentations. To further promote diversity, we randomly replace the immediate neighbors of each node with its remote neighbors. After that, a neighbor-constrained regularization is proposed to enforce the predictions of the augmented neighbors to be consistent with each other. Extensive experiments on five real-world graphs validate the superiority of our method in improving the accuracy and generalization of GNNs.

Regularizing Graph Neural Networks via Consistency-Diversity Graph Augmentations

We study online task assignment problem with reusable resources, motivated by practical applications such as ridesharing, crowdsourcing and job hiring. In the problem, we are given a set of offline vertices (agents), and, at each time, an online vertex (task) arrives randomly according to a known time-dependent distribution. Upon arrival, we assign the task to agents immediately and irrevocably. The goal of the problem is to maximize the expected total profit produced by completed tasks. The key features of our problem are (1) an agent is reusable, i.e., an agent comes back to the market after completing the assigned task, (2) an agent may reject the assigned task to stay the market, and (3) a task may accommodate multiple agents. The setting generalizes that of existing work in which an online task is assigned to one agent under (1).

In this paper, we propose an online algorithm that is 1/2-competitive for the above setting, which is tight. Moreover, when each agent can reject assigned tasks at most Î” times, the algorithm is shown to have the competitive ratio Î”/(3Î”-1), which is at least 1/3. We also evaluate our proposed algorithm with numerical experiments.

Online Task Assignment Problems with Reusable Resources

As an asset pricing model in economics and finance, factor model has been widely used in quantitative investment. Towards building more effective factor models, recent years have witnessed the paradigm shift from linear models to more flexible nonlinear data-driven machine learning models. However, due to low signal-to-noise ratio of the financial data, it is quite challenging to learn effective factor models. In this paper, we propose a novel factor model, FactorVAE, as a probabilistic model with inherent randomness for noise modeling. Essentially, our model integrates the dynamic factor model (DFM) with the variational autoencoder (VAE) in machine learning, and we propose a prior-posterior learning method based on VAE, which can effectively guide the learning of model by approximating an optimal posterior factor model with future information. Particularly, considering that risk modeling is important for the noisy stock data, FactorVAE can estimate the variances from the distribution over the latent space of VAE, in addition to predicting returns. The experiments on the real stock market data demonstrate the effectiveness of FactorVAE, which outperforms various baseline methods.

FactorVAE: A Probabilistic Dynamic Factor Model Based on Variational Autoencoder for Predicting Cross-Sectional Stock Returns

The goal of the crime forecasting problem is to predict different types of crimes for each geographical region (like a neighborhood or censor tract) in the near future. Since nearby regions usually have similar socioeconomic characteristics which indicate similar crime patterns, recent state-of-the-art solutions constructed a distance-based region graph and utilized Graph Neural Network (GNN) techniques for crime forecasting, because the GNN techniques could effectively exploit the latent relationships between neighboring region nodes in the graph if the edges reveal high dependency or correlation. However, this distance-based pre-defined graph can not fully capture crime correlation between regions that are far from each other but share similar crime patterns. Hence, to make a more accurate crime prediction, the main challenge is to learn a better graph that reveals the dependencies between regions in crime occurrences and meanwhile captures the temporal patterns from historical crime records. To address these challenges, we propose an end-to-end graph convolutional recurrent network called HAGEN with several novel designs for crime prediction. Specifically, our framework could jointly capture the crime correlation between regions and the temporal crime dynamics by combining an adaptive region graph learning module with the Diffusion Convolution Gated Recurrent Unit (DCGRU). Based on the homophily assumption of GNN (i.e., graph convolution works better where neighboring nodes share the same label), we propose a homophily-aware constraint to regularize the optimization of the region graph so that neighboring region nodes on the learned graph share similar crime patterns, thus fitting the mechanism of diffusion convolution. Empirical experiments and comprehensive analysis on two real-world datasets showcase the effectiveness of HAGEN.

HAGEN: Homophily-Aware Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Crime Forecasting

Student assessment is one of the most fundamental tasks in the field of AI Education (AIEd). One of the most common approach to student assessment is Knowledge Tracing (KT), which evaluates a student's knowledge state by predicting whether the student will answer a given question correctly or not. However, in the context of multiple choice (polytomous) questions, conventional KT approaches are limited in that they only consider the binary (dichotomous) correctness label (i.e., correct or incorrect), and disregard the specific option chosen by the student. 
 Meanwhile, Option Tracing (OT) attempts to model a student by predicting which option they will choose for a given question, but overlooks the correctness information. In this paper, we propose Dichotomous-Polytomous Multi-Task Learning (DP-MTL), a multi-task learning framework that combines KT and OT for more precise student assessment. In particular, we show that the KT objective acts as a regularization term for OT in the DP-MTL framework, and propose an appropriate architecture for applying our method on top of existing deep learning-based KT models. We experimentally confirm that DP-MTL significantly improves both KT and OT performances, and also benefits downstream tasks such as Score Prediction (SP).

No Task Left Behind: Multi-Task Learning of Knowledge Tracing and Option Tracing for Better Student Assessment

Classical matrix completion methods focus on data with stationary latent structure and hence are not effective in missing value imputation when the latent structure changes with time.  This paper proposes a dynamic nonlinear matrix completion (D-NLMC) method, which is able to recover the missing values of streaming data when the low-dimensional nonlinear latent structure of the data changes with time.  The paper provides an efficient approach to updating the nonlinear model dynamically.  D-NLMC incorporates the information of new data and remove the information of earlier data recursively.  The paper shows that the missing data can be estimated if the change of latent structure is slow enough.  Different from existing online or adaptive low-rank matrix completion methods,  D-NLMC does not require the local low-rank assumption and is able to adaptively recover high-rank matrices with low-dimensional latent structures. Note that existing high-rank matrix completion methods have high-computational costs and are not applicable to streaming data with varying latent structures, which fortunately can be handled by D-NLMC efficiently and accurately.  Numerical results show that D-NLMC outperforms the baselines in real applications.

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Are Vision-Language Transformers Learning Multimodal Representations? A Probing Perspective.

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Are Vision-Language Transformers Learning Multimodal Representations? A Probing Perspective.

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Maximizing the Probability of Fixation in the Positional Voter Model

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