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Time series data appears in many real-world fields such as energy, transportation, communication systems. Accurate modelling and forecasting of time series data can be of significant importance to improve the efficiency of these systems. Extensive research efforts have been taken for time series problems. Different types of approaches, including both statistical-based methods and machine learning-based methods, have been investigated. Among these methods, ensemble learning has shown to be effective and robust. However, it is still an open question that how we should determine weights for base models in the ensemble. Sub-optimal weights may prevent the final model from reaching its full potential. To deal with this challenge, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) based model combination (RLMC) framework for determining model weights in an ensemble for time series forecasting tasks. By formulating model selection as a sequential decision-making problem, RLMC learns a deterministic policy to output dynamic model weights for non-stationary time series data. RLMC further leverages deep learning to learn hidden features from raw time series data to adapt fast to the changing data distribution. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets have been implemented to showcase the effectiveness of the proposed method.

AAAI 2022

Reinforcement Learning based Dynamic Model Combination for Time Series Forecasting

## Welcome to EMNLP 2024! 
We are excited to welcome you to one of the most prominent conferences in the field of Natural Language Processing. This year, EMNLP 2024 is being held in a hybrid format,
offering both virtual and in-person participation in beautiful Miami. Due to a record-breaking number of submissions, we've expanded the total number of accepted papers to accommodate more cutting-edge research from around the globe.
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EMNLP 2024

EMNLP 2024 will take place in Miami, Florida from Nov 12th to Nov 16th, 2024, at the Hyatt Regency Miami Hote and on Underline for remote participants.

technical paper

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

Consider a bank that uses an AI system to decide which loan applications to approve. We want to ensure that the system is fair, that is, it does not discriminate against applicants based on a predefined list of sensitive attributes, such as gender and ethnicity. We expect there to be a regulator whose job it is to certify the bank's system as fair or unfair. We consider issues that the regulator will have to confront when making such a decision, including the precise definition of fairness, dealing with proxy variables, and dealing with what we call allowed variables, that is, variables such as salary on which the decision is allowed to depend, despite being correlated with sensitive variables. We show (among other things) that the problem of deciding fairness as we have defined it is co-NP-complete, but then argue that, despite that, in practice the problem should be manageable.

On Testing for Discrimination Using Causal Models

We present Nonparametric Approximation of Inter-Trace returns (NAIT), a Reinforcement Learning algorithm for discrete action, pixel-based environments that is both highly sample and computation efficient. NAIT is a lazy-learning approach with an update that is equivalent to episodic Monte-Carlo on episode completion, but that allows the stable incorporation of rewards while an episode is ongoing. We make use of a fixed domain-agnostic representation, simple distance based exploration and a proximity graph-based lookup to facilitate extremely fast execution. We empirically evaluate NAIT on both the 26 and 57 game variants of ATARI100k where, despite its simplicity, it achieves competitive performance in the online setting with greater than 100x speedup in wall-time.

Fast and Data Efficient Reinforcement Learning from Pixels via Non-Parametric Value Approximation

Creating what-if stories requires reasoning about prior statements and possible outcomes of the changed conditions. One can easily generate coherent endings under new conditions, but it would be challenging for current systems to do it with minimal changes to the original story. Therefore, one major challenge is the trade-off between generating a logical story and rewriting with minimal-edits. In this paper, we propose EDUCAT, an editing-based unsupervised approach for counterfactual story rewriting. EDUCAT includes a target position detection strategy based on estimating causal effects of the what-if conditions, which keeps the causal invariant parts of the story. EDUCAT then generates the stories under fluency, coherence and minimal-edits constraints. We also propose a new metric to alleviate the shortcomings of current automatic metrics and better evaluate the trade-off. We evaluate EDUCAT on a public counterfactual story rewriting benchmark. Experiments show that EDUCAT achieves the best trade-off over unsupervised SOTA methods according to both automatic and human evaluation. The resources of EDUCAT are available at: https://github.com/jiangjiechen/EDUCAT.

Unsupervised Editing for Counterfactual Stories

We consider a variant of the standard Bayesian mechanism, where players evaluate their outcomes and constraints in an ex-ante manner. Such a model captures a major form of modern online advertising where an advertiser is concerned with her/his expected utility over a time period and her/his type may change over time. We are interested in the incentive compatibility (IC) problem of such Bayesian mechanism. Under very mild conditions on the mechanism environments, we give a full characterization of IC via the taxation principle and show, perhaps surprisingly, that such IC mechanisms are fully characterized by the so-called auto-bidding mechanisms, which are pervasively fielded in the online advertising industry.

Characterization of Incentive Compatibility of an Ex-Ante Constrained Player

Over the last few years, researchers have put significant effort into understanding of the notion of proportional representation in committee election. In particular, recently they have proposed the notion of proportionality degree. We study the complexity of computing committees with a given proportionality degree and of testing if a given committee provides a particular one. This way, we complement recent studies that mostly focused on the notion of (extended) justified representation.  We also study the problems of testing if a cohesive group of a given size exists and of counting such groups.

The Complexity of Proportionality Degree in Committee Elections

There are two key issues that limit further improvements in the performance of existing rotational detectors: 1) Periodic sudden change of the parameters in the rotating bounding box (RBBox) definition causes a numerical discontinuity in the loss (such as smoothL1 loss). 2) There is a gap of optimization asynchrony between the loss in the RBBox regression and evaluation metrics. In this paper, we define a new distance formulation between two convex polygons describing the overlapping degree and non-overlapping degree. Based on this smooth distance, we propose a loss called Polygon-to-Polygon distance loss (P2P Loss). The distance is derived from the area sum of triangles specified by the vertexes of one polygon and the edges of the other. Therefore, the P2P Loss is continuous, differentiable, and inherently free from any RBBox definition. Our P2P Loss is not only consistent with the detection metrics but also able to measure how far, as well as how similar, a RBBox is from another one even when they are completely non-overlapping. These features allow the RetinaNet using the P2P Loss to achieve 79.15% mAP on the DOTA dataset, which is quite competitive compared with many state-of-the-art rotated object detectors.

Polygon-to-Polygon Distance Loss for Rotated Object Detection

Fine-grained visual classification (FGVC) which aims at recognizing objects from subcategories is a very challenging task due to the inherently subtle inter-class differences. Most existing works mainly tackle this problem by reusing the backbone network to extract features of detected discriminative regions. However, this strategy inevitably complicates the pipeline and pushes the proposed regions to contain most parts of the objects thus fails to locate the really important parts. Recently, vision transformer (ViT) shows its strong performance in the traditional classification task. The self-attention mechanism of the transformer links every patch token to the classification token. In this work, we first evaluate the effectiveness of the ViT framework in the fine-grained recognition setting. Then motivated by the strength of the attention link can be intuitively considered as an indicator of the importance of tokens, we further propose a novel Part Selection Module that can be applied to most of the transformer architectures where we integrate all raw attention weights of the transformer into an attention map for guiding the network to effectively and accurately select discriminative image patches and compute their relations. A contrastive loss is applied to enlarge the distance between feature representations of confusing classes. We name the augmented transformer-based model TransFG and demonstrate the value of it by conducting experiments on five popular fine-grained benchmarks where we achieve state-of-the-art performance. Qualitative results are presented for better understanding of our model.

TransFG: A Transformer Architecture for Fine-Grained Recognition

The paper proposes a probabilistic generalization of the well-known Strong Backdoor Set (SBS) concept applied to the Boolean Satisfiability Problem (SAT). We call a set of Boolean variables B a Ï-backdoor, if for a fraction of at least Ï of possible assignments of variables from B, assigning their values to variables in a Boolean formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF) results in polynomially solvable formulas. Clearly, a Ï-backdoor with Ï=1 is an SBS. For a given set B it is possible to efficiently construct an (Îµ, Î´)-approximation of parameter Ï using the Monte Carlo method. Thus, we define an (Îµ, Î´)-SBS as such a set B for which the conclusion "parameter Ï deviates from 1 by no more than Îµ" is true with probability no smaller than 1 - Î´. We consider the problems of finding the minimum SBS and the minimum (Îµ, Î´)-SBS. To solve the former problem, one can use the algorithm described by R. Williams, C. Gomes and B. Selman in 2003. In the paper we propose a new probabilistic algorithm to solve the latter problem, and show that the asymptotic estimation of the worst-case complexity of the proposed algorithm is significantly smaller than that of the algorithm by Williams et al. For practical applications, we suggest a metaheuristic optimization algorithm based on the penalty function method to seek the minimal (Îµ, Î´)-SBS. Results of computational experiments show that the use of (Îµ, Î´)-SBSes found by the proposed algorithm allows speeding up solving of test problems related to equivalence checking and hard crafted and combinatorial benchmarks compared to state-of-the-art SAT solvers.

On Probabilistic Generalization of Backdoors in Boolean Satisfiability

Inferring spatial relations in natural language is a crucial ability an intelligent system should possess. The bAbI dataset tries to capture tasks relevant to this domain (task 17 and 19). However, these tasks have several limitations. Most importantly, they are limited to fixed expressions, they are limited in the number of reasoning steps required to solve them, and they fail to test the robustness of models to input that contains irrelevant or redundant information. In this paper, we present a new Question-Answering dataset called StepGame for robust multi-step spatial reasoning in texts. Our experiments demonstrate that state-of-the-art models on the bAbI dataset struggle on the StepGame dataset. Moreover, we propose a Tensor-Product based Memory-Augmented Neural Network (TP-MANN) specialized for spatial reasoning tasks. Experimental results on both datasets show that our model outperforms all the baselines with superior generalization and robustness performance.

StepGame: A New Benchmark for Robust Multi-Hop Spatial Reasoning in Texts

Learning effective representations of entities and relations for knowledge graphs (KGs) is critical to the success of many multi-relational learning tasks. Existing methods based on graph neural networks learn a deterministic embedding function, which lacks sufficient flexibility to explore better choices when dealing with the imperfect and noisy KGs such as the scarce labeled nodes and noisy graph structure. To this end, we propose a novel multi-relational graph Gaussian Process network (GGPN), which aims to improve the flexibility of deterministic methods by simultaneously learning a family of embedding functions, i.e., a stochastic embedding function. Specifically, a Bayesian Gaussian Process (GP) is proposed to model the distribution of this stochastic function and the resulting representations are obtained by aggregating stochastic function values, i.e., messages, from neighboring entities. The two problems incurred when leveraging GP in GGPN are the proper choice of kernel function and the cubic computational complexity. To address the first problem, we further propose a novel kernel function that can explicitly take the diverse relations between each pair of entities into account and be adaptively learned in a data-driven way. We address the second problem by reformulating GP as a Bayesian linear model, resulting in a linear computational complexity. With these two solutions, our GGPN can be efficiently trained in an end-to-end manner. We evaluate our GGPN in link prediction and entity classification tasks, and the experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/sysu-gzchen/GGPN.

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On Testing for Discrimination Using Causal Models

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Language Models Still Struggle to Zero-shot Reason about Time Series

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Next from AAAI 2022

On Testing for Discrimination Using Causal Models

Similar lecture

Language Models Still Struggle to Zero-shot Reason about Time Series

Stay up to date with the latest Underline news!

PRESENTATIONS

CONFERENCES

COMPANY

RESOURCES

Downloads