United States

Climate change is posing new challenges to crop-related concerns, including food insecurity, supply stability, and economic planning. Accurately predicting crop yields is crucial for addressing these challenges. However, this prediction task is exceptionally complicated since crop yields depend on numerous factors such as weather, land surface, and soil quality, as well as their interactions. In recent years, machine learning models have been successfully applied in this domain. However, these models either restrict their tasks to a relatively small region, or only study over a single or few years, which makes them hard to generalize spatially and temporally. In this paper, we introduce a novel graph-based recurrent neural network for crop yield prediction, to incorporate both geographical and temporal knowledge in the model, and further boost predictive power. Our method is trained, validated, and tested on over 2000 counties from 41 states in the US mainland, covering years from 1981 to 2019. As far as we know, this is the first machine learning method that embeds geographical knowledge in crop yield prediction and predicts crop yields at the county level nationwide. We also laid a solid foundation by comparing our model on a nationwide scale with other well-known baseline methods, including linear models, tree-based models, and deep learning methods. Experiments show that our proposed method consistently outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods on various metrics, validating the effectiveness of geospatial and temporal information.

AAAI 2022

A GNN-RNN Approach for Harnessing Geospatial and Temporal Information: Application to Crop Yield Prediction

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
AAAI is providing you with a conference planner, which you can use to help organize your itinerary of activities. This includes talks to attend in person, talks to attend remotely, breaks with colleagues and your site seeing activities. To access this conference planner, please go to [https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io](https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io).

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AAAI 2023

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

technical paper

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

Infectious disease forecasting has been a key focus in the recent past owing to the COVID-19 pandemic and has proved to be an important tool in controlling the pandemic. With the advent of reliable spatiotemporal data, graph neural network models have been able to successfully model the inter-relation between the cross-region signals to produce quality forecasts, but like most deep-learning models they do not explicitly incorporate the underlying causal mechanisms. In this work, we employ a causal mechanistic model to guide the learning of the graph embeddings and propose a novel learning framework -- Causal-based Graph Neural Network (CausalGNN) that learns spatiotemporal embedding in a latent space where graph input features and epidemiological context are combined via a mutually learning mechanism using graph-based non-linear transformations. We design an attention-based dynamic GNN module to capture spatial and temporal disease dynamics. A causal module is added to the framework to provide epidemiological context for node embedding via ordinary differential equations. Extensive experiments on forecasting daily new cases of COVID-19 at global, US state, and US county levels show that the proposed method outperforms a broad range of baselines. The learned model which incorporates epidemiological context organizes the embedding in an efficient way by keeping the parameter size small leading to robust and accurate forecasting performance across various datasets.

CausalGNN: Causal-Based Graph Neural Networks for Spatio-Temporal Epidemic Forecasting

Detecting depression based on non-verbal behaviors has received great attention. However, most prior work on detecting depression mainly focused on detecting depressed individuals in laboratory settings, which are difficult to be generalized in practice. In addition, little attention has been paid to analyzing the non-verbal behaviors of depressed individuals in the wild. Therefore, in this paper, we present a multimodal depression dataset, D-Vlog, which consists of 961 vlogs (i.e., around 160 hours) collected from YouTube, which can be utilized in developing depression detection models based on the non-verbal behavior of individuals in real-world scenario. We develop a multimodal deep learning model that uses acoustic and visual features extracted from collected data to detect depression. Our proposed model employs the cross-attention mechanism to effectively capture the relationship across acoustic and visual features, and generates useful multimodal representations for depression detection. The extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model significantly outperforms other baseline models. We believe our dataset and the proposed model are useful for analyzing and detecting depressed individuals based on non-verbal behavior.

D-Vlog: Multimodal Vlog Dataset for Depression Detection

Wearable devices that integrate multiple sensors, processors, and communication technologies have the potential to transform mobile health for remote monitoring of health parameters. However, the small form factor of the wearable devices limits the battery size and operating lifetime. As a result, the devices require frequent recharging, which has limited their widespread adoption. Energy harvesting has emerged as an effective method towards sustainable operation of wearable devices. Unfortunately, energy harvesting alone is not sufficient to fulfill the energy requirements of wearable devices. This paper studies the novel problem of adaptive energy management towards the goal of self-sustainable wearables by using harvested energy to supplement the battery energy and to reduce manual recharging by users. To solve this problem, we propose a principled algorithm referred as AdaEM. There are two key ideas behind AdaEM. First, it uses machine learning (ML) methods to learn predictive models of user activity and energy usage patterns. These models allow us to estimate the potential of energy harvesting in a day as a function of the user activities. Second, it reasons about the uncertainty in predictions and estimations from the ML models to optimize the energy management decisions using a dynamic robust optimization (DyRO) formulation. We propose a light-weight solution for DyRO to meet the practical needs of deployment. We validate the AdaEM approach on a wearable device prototype consisting of solar and motion energy harvesting using real-world data of user activities. Experiments show that AdaEM achieves solutions that are within 5% of the optimal with less than 0.005% execution time and energy overhead.

Adaptive Energy Management for Self-Sustainable Wearables in Mobile Health

With widening deployments of natural language processing (NLP) in daily life, inherited social biases from NLP models have become more severe and problematic. Previous studies have shown that word embeddings trained on human-generated corpora have strong gender biases that can produce discriminative results in downstream tasks. Previous debiasing methods focus mainly on modeling bias and only implicitly consider semantic information while completely overlooking the complex underlying causal structure among bias and semantic components. To address these issues, we propose a novel methodology that leverages a causal inference framework to effectively remove gender bias. The proposed method allows us to construct and analyze the complex causal mechanisms facilitating gender information flow while retaining oracle semantic information within word embeddings. Our comprehensive experiments show that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art results in gender-debiasing tasks. In addition, our methods yield better performance in word similarity evaluation and various extrinsic downstream NLP tasks.

Word Embeddings via Causal Inference: Gender Bias Reducing and Semantic Information Preserving

The widespread availability of cell phones has enabled non-profits to deliver critical health information to their beneficiaries in a timely manner. This paper describes our work to assist non-profits that employ automated messaging programs to deliver timely preventive care information to beneficiaries (new and expecting mothers) during pregnancy and after delivery. Unfortunately, a key challenge in such information delivery programs is that a significant fraction of beneficiaries drop out of the program. Yet, non-profits often have limited health-worker resources (time) to place crucial service calls for live interaction with beneficiaries to prevent such engagement drops. To assist non-profits in optimizing this limited resource, we developed a Restless Multi-Armed Bandits (RMABs) system. One key technical contribution in this system is a novel clustering method of offline historical data to infer unknown RMAB parameters. Our second major contribution is evaluation of our RMAB system in collaboration with an NGO, via a real-world service quality improvement study. The study compared strategies for optimizing service calls to 23003 participants over a period of 7 weeks to reduce engagement drops. We show that the RMAB group provides statistically significant improvement over other comparison groups, reducing ~30% engagement drops. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating the utility of RMABs in real world public health settings. We are transitioning our RMAB system to the NGO for real-world use.

Field Study in Deploying Restless Multi-Armed Bandits: Assisting Non-Profits in Improving Maternal and Child Health

Structural Equation/Causal Models (SEMs/SCMs) are widely used in epidemiology and social sciences to identify and analyze the average causal effect (ACE) and conditional ACE (CACE). Traditional causal effect estimation methods such as Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) and more recently Regression-With-Residuals (RWR) are widely used - as they avoid the challenging task of identifying the SCM parameters - to estimate ACE and CACE. However, much work remains before traditional estimation methods can be used for counterfactual inference, and for the benefit of Personalized Public Policy Analysis (P3A) in the social sciences. While doctors rely on personalized medicine to tailor treatments to patients in laboratory settings (relatively closed systems), P3A draws inspiration from such tailoring but adapts it for open social systems. In this article, we develop a method for counterfactual inference that we name causal-Graphical Normalizing Flow (c-GNF), facilitating P3A. A major advantage of c-GNF is that it suits the open system in which P3A is conducted. First, we show how c-GNF captures the underlying SCM without making any assumption about functional forms. This capturing capability is enabled by the deep neural networks that model the underlying SCM via observational data likelihood maximization using gradient descent. Second, we propose a novel dequantization trick to deal with discrete variables, which is a limitation of normalizing flows in general. Third, we demonstrate in experiments that c-GNF performs on-par with IPW and RWR in terms of bias and variance for estimating the ATE, when the true functional forms are known, and better when they are unknown. Fourth and most importantly, we conduct counterfactual inference with c-GNFs, demonstrating promising empirical performance. Because IPW and RWR, like other traditional methods, lack the capability of counterfactual inference, c-GNFs will likely play a major role in tailoring personalized treatment, facilitating P3A, optimizing social interventions - in contrast to the current `one-size-fits-all' approach of existing methods.

Personalized Public Policy Analysis In Social Sciences Using Causal-Graphical Normalizing Flows

Early detection of lung cancer is crucial for five-year survival of patients. Compared with the pathological analysis and CT scans, the circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) methylation based approach is noninvasive and cost-effective, and thus is one of the most promising methods for early detection of lung cancer. Existing studies on ctDNA methylation data measure the methylation level of each region with a predefined metric, ignoring the positions of methylated CpG sites and methylation patterns, thus are not able to capture the early cancer signals. In this paper, we propose a blood-based lung cancer detection method, and present the first ever study to represent methylation regions by continuous vectors. Specifically, we propose DeepMeth to regard each region as a one-channel image and develop an auto-encoder model to learn its representation. For each ctDNA methylation sample, DeepMeth achieves its representation via concatenating the region vectors. We evaluate DeepMeth on a multicenter clinical dataset collected from 14 hospitals. The experiments show that DeepMeth achieves about 5%-8% improvements compared with the baselines in terms of Area Under the Curve (AUC). Moreover, the experiments also demonstrate that DeepMeth can be combined with traditional scalar metrics to enhance the diagnostic power of ctDNA methylation classifiers. DeepMeth has been clinically deployed and applied to 450 patients from 94 hospitals nationally since April 2020.

Noninvasive Lung Cancer Early Detection via Deep Methylation Representation Learning

Electricity forecasting has important implications for the key decisions in modern electricity systems, ranging from power generation, transmission, distribution and so on. In the literature, traditional statistic approaches, machine-learning methods and deep learning (e.g., recurrent neural network) based models are utilized to model the trends and patterns in electricity time-series data. However, they are restricted either by their deterministic forms or by independence in probabilistic assumptions -- thereby neglecting the uncertainty or significant correlations between distributions of electricity data. Ignoring these, in turn, may yield error accumulation, especially when relying on historical data and aiming at multi-step prediction. To overcome these, we propose a novel method named Probabilistic Electricity Forecasting (PrEF) by proposing a non-linear neural state space model (SSM) and incorporating copula-augmented mechanism into that, which can learn uncertainty-dependencies knowledge and understand interactive relationships between various factors from large-scale electricity time-series data. Our method distinguishes itself from existing models by its traceable inference procedure and its capability of providing high-quality probabilistic distribution predictions. Extensive experiments on two real-world electricity datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms the alternatives.

PrEF: Probabilistic Electricity Forecasting via Copula-Augmented State Space Model

According to the official adult literacy report conducted in 24 highly-developed countries, more than 50% adults, on average, can only understand basic vocabulary, short sentences, and basic syntactic constructions. Everyday information found in news articles is thus inaccessible to many people, impeding their social inclusion and informed decision-making. Systems for automatic sentence simplification aim to provide scalable solution to this problem. In this paper, we propose new state-of-the-art sentence simplification systems for English and Spanish, and specifications for expert evaluation that are in accordance with well-established easy-to-read guidelines. We conduct expert evaluation of our new systems and the previous state-of-the-art systems for English and Spanish, and discuss strengths and weaknesses of each of them. Finally, we draw conclusions about the capabilities of the state-of-the-art sentence simplification systems and give some directions for future research.

Sentence Simplification Capabilities of Transfer-Based Models

Masked Language Models (MLMs) have shown superior performances in numerous downstream Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks.
 Unfortunately, MLMs also demonstrate significantly worrying levels of social biases.
 We show that the previously proposed evaluation metrics for quantifying the social biases in MLMs are problematic due to the following reasons:
 (1) prediction accuracy of the masked tokens itself tend to be low in some MLMs,
 which leads to unreliable evaluation metrics, and 
 (2) in most downstream NLP tasks, masks are not used; therefore prediction of the mask is not directly related to them, and 
 (3) high-frequency words in the training data are masked more often, introducing noise due to this selection bias in the test cases.
 Therefore, we propose All Unmasked Likelihood (AUL), a bias evaluation measure that predicts all tokens in a test case given the MLM embedding of the unmasked input and AUL with Attention weights (AULA) to evaluate tokens based on their importance in a sentence.
 Our experimental results show that the proposed bias evaluation measures accurately detect different types of biases in MLMs, and unlike AUL and AULA, previously proposed measures for MLMs systematically overestimate the measured biases and are heavily influenced by the unmasked tokens in the context.

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CausalGNN: Causal-Based Graph Neural Networks for Spatio-Temporal Epidemic Forecasting

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Physics Guided Neural Networks for Time-aware Fairness: An Application in Crop Yield Prediction

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