United States

High-resolution daytime satellite imagery has become a promising source to study economic activities. These images display detailed terrain over large areas and allow zooming into smaller neighborhoods. Existing methods, however, have utilized images only in a single-level geographical unit. This research presents a deep learning model to predict economic indicators via aggregating traits observed from multiple levels of geographical units. The model first measures hyperlocal economy over small communities via ordinal regression. The next step extracts district-level features by summarizing interconnection among hyperlocal economies. In the final step, the model estimates economic indicators of districts via aggregating the hyperlocal and district information. Our new multi-level learning model substantially outperforms strong baselines in predicting key indicators such as population, purchasing power, and energy consumption. The model is also robust against data shortage; the trained features from one country can generalize to other countries when evaluated with data gathered from Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. We discuss the multi-level model&#39;s implications for measuring inequality, which is the essential first step in policy and social science research on inequality and poverty.

AAAI 2022

Learning Economic Indicators by Aggregating Multi-Level Geospatial Information

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

AAAI 2021

High-resolution daytime satellite imagery has become a promising source to study economic activities. These images display detailed terrain over large areas and allow zooming into smaller neighborhoods. Existing methods, however, have utilized images only in a single-level geographical unit. This research presents a deep learning model to predict economic indicators via aggregating traits observed from multiple levels of geographical units. The model first measures hyperlocal economy over small communities via ordinal regression. The next step extracts district-level features by summarizing interconnection among hyperlocal economies. In the final step, the model estimates economic indicators of districts via aggregating the hyperlocal and district information. Our new multi-level learning model substantially outperforms strong baselines in predicting key indicators such as population, purchasing power, and energy consumption. The model is also robust against data shortage; the trained features from one country can generalize to other countries when evaluated with data gathered from Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. We discuss the multi-level model's implications for measuring inequality, which is the essential first step in policy and social science research on inequality and poverty.

technical paper

Deep learning has the potential to automate many clinically useful tasks in medical imaging. However translation of deep learning into clinical practice has been hindered by issues such as lack of the transparency and interpretability in these ``black box'' algorithms compared to traditional statistical methods. Specifically, many clinical deep learning models lack rigorous and robust techniques for conveying certainty (or lack thereof) in their predictions -- ultimately limiting their appeal for extensive use in medical decision-making. Furthermore, numerous demonstrations of algorithmic bias have increased hesitancy towards deployment of deep learning for clinical applications. To this end, we explore how conformal predictions can complement existing deep learning approaches by providing an intuitive way of expressing uncertainty while facilitating greater transparency to clinical users. In this paper, we conduct field interviews with radiologists to assess possible use-cases for conformal predictors. Using insights gathered from these interviews, we devise two clinical use-cases and empirically evaluate several methods of conformal predictions on a dermatology photography dataset for skin lesion classification. We show how to modify conformal predictions to be more adaptive to subgroup differences in patient skin tones through equalized coverage. Finally, we compare conformal prediction against measures of epistemic uncertainty.

Fair Conformal Predictors for Applications in Medical Imaging

This work studies the task of glossification, of which the aim is to em transcribe natural spoken language sentences for the Deaf (hard-of-hearing) community to ordered sign language glosses. Previous sequence-to-sequence language models trained with paired sentence-gloss data often fail to capture the rich connections between the two distinct languages, leading to unsatisfactory transcriptions. We observe that despite different grammars, glosses effectively simplify sentences for the ease of deaf communication, while sharing a large portion of vocabulary with sentences. This has motivated us to implement glossification by executing a collection of editing actions, e.g. word addition, deletion, and copying, called editing programs, on their natural spoken language counterparts. Specifically, we design a new neural agent that learns to synthesize and execute editing programs, conditioned on sentence contexts and partial editing results. The agent is trained to imitate minimal editing programs, while exploring more widely the program space via policy gradients to optimize sequence-wise transcription quality. Results show that our approach outperforms previous glossification models by a large margin,  improving the BLEU-4 score from 16.45 to 18.89 on RWTH-PHOENIX-WEATHER-2014T and from 18.38 to 21.30 on CSL-Daily.

Transcribing Natural Languages for The Deaf via Neural Editing Programs

Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer worldwide. A robotic system performing autonomous breast palpation can make a significant impact on the related health sector worldwide. However, robot programming for breast palpating with different geometries is very complex and unsolved. Robot learning from demonstrations (LfD) reduces the programming time and cost. However, the available LfD are lacking the modelling of the manipulation path/trajectory as an explicit function of the visual sensory information. This paper presents a novel approach to manipulation path/trajectory planning called deep Movement Primitives that successfully generates the movements of a manipulator to reach a breast phantom and perform the palpation. We show the effectiveness of our approach by a series of real-robot experiments of reaching and palpating a breast phantom. The experimental results indicate our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art method.

Deep Movement Primitives: Toward Breast Cancer Examination Robot

Our research aims to reduce the cost of pressure sensor calibration through machine learning. Pressure sensor calibration is a standard process whereby freshly manufactured pressure sensors are subjected to various controlled temperature and pressure setpoints to compute a mapping between the sensor's output and true pressure. Traditionally this mapping is calculated by fitting a polynomial with calibration data. Obtaining this data is costly since a large spectrum of temperature and pressure setpoints are required to model the sensor's behavior.
 
 We present a machine learning approach to predict a pre-defined calibration polynomial's parameters while requiring only one-third of the calibration data. Our method learns a pattern from past calibration sessions to predict the calibration polynomial's parameters from partial calibration setpoints for any newly manufactured sensor. We design a novel polynomial hypernetwork coupled with Fourier features and a weighted loss to solve this problem. We perform extensive evaluations and show that the current industry-standard method fails under similar conditions. In contrast, our approach saves two-thirds of the calibration time and cost. Furthermore, we conduct comprehensive ablations to study the effect of Fourier mapping and weighted loss. Code and a novel calibration dataset validated by calibration engineers are also made public.

Reducing Energy Consumption of Pressure Sensor Calibration Using Polynomial HyperNetworks with Fourier Features

Expert finding, a popular service provided by many online websites such as Expertise Finder, LinkedIn, and AMiner, is beneficial to seeking candidate qualifications, consultants, and collaborators. However, its quality is suffered from lack of ample sources of expert information. This paper employs AMiner as the basis with an aim at linking any external experts to the counterparts on AMiner. As it is infeasible to acquire sufficient linkages from arbitrary external sources, we explore the problem of zero-shot expert linking. In this paper, we propose CODE, which first pre-trains an expert linking model by contrastive learning on AMiner such that it can capture the representation and matching patterns of experts without supervised signals, then it is fine-tuned between AMinerand external sources to enhance the model's transferability in an adversarial manner. For evaluation, we first design two intrinsic tasks, author identification and paper clustering, to validate the representation and matching capability endowed by contrastive learning. Then the final external expert linking performance on two genres of external sources also implies the superiority of adversarial fine-tuning method. Additionally, we show the online deployment of CODE, and continuously improve its online performance via active learning.

CODE: Contrastive Pre-Training with Adversarial Fine-Tuning for Zero-Shot Expert Linking

A key challenge for decision makers when incorporating black box machine learned models into practice is being able to understand the predictions provided by these models. One set of methods proposed to address this challenge is that of training surrogate explainer models which approximate how the more complex model is computing its predictions. Explainer methods are generally classified as either local or global explainers depending on what portion of the data space they are purported to explain. The improved coverage of global explainers usually comes at the expense of explainer fidelity (i.e., how well the explainer's predictions match that of the black box model). One way of trading off the advantages of both approaches is to aggregate several local explainers into a single explainer model with improved coverage. However, the problem of aggregating these local explainers is computationally challenging, and existing methods only use heuristics to form these aggregations.
  
 In this paper, we propose a local explainer aggregation method which selects local explainers using non-convex optimization. In contrast to other heuristic methods, we use an integer optimization framework to combine local explainers into a near-global aggregate explainer. Our framework allows a decision-maker to directly tradeoff coverage and fidelity of the resulting aggregation through the parameters of the optimization problem. We also propose a novel local explainer algorithm based on information filtering. We evaluate our algorithmic framework on two healthcare datasets: the Parkinson's Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI) data set and a geriatric mobility dataset from the UCI machine learning repository. Our choice of these healthcare-related datasets is motivated by the anticipated need for explainable precision medicine. We find that our method outperforms existing local explainer aggregation methods in terms of both fidelity and coverage of classification. It also improves on fidelity over existing global explainer methods, particularly in multi-class settings, where state-of-the-art methods achieve 70% and ours achieves 90%.

Optimal Local Explainer Aggregation for Interpretable Prediction

Background: At the onset of a pandemic, such as COVID-19, data with proper labeling/attributes corresponding to the new disease might be unavailable or sparse. Machine Learning (ML) models trained with the available data, which is limited in quantity and poor in diversity, will often be biased and inaccurate. At the same time, ML algorithms designed to fight pandemics must have good performance and be developed in a time-sensitive manner. To tackle the challenges of limited data, and label scarcity in the available data, we propose generating conditional synthetic data, to be used alongside real data for developing robust ML models. Methods: We present a hybrid model consisting of a conditional generative flow and a classifier for conditional synthetic data generation. The classifier decouples the feature representation for the condition, which is fed to the flow to extract the local noise. We generate synthetic data by manipulating the local noise with fixed conditional feature representation. We also propose a semi-supervised approach to generate synthetic samples in the absence of labels for a majority of the available data. Results: We performed conditional synthetic generation for chest computed tomography (CT) scans corresponding to normal, COVID-19, and pneumonia afflicted patients. We show that our method significantly outperforms existing models both on qualitative and quantitative performance, and our semi-supervised approach can efficiently synthesize conditional samples under label scarcity. As an example of downstream use of synthetic data, we show improvement in COVID-19 detection from CT scans with conditional synthetic data augmentation.

Conditional Synthetic Data Generation for Robust Machine Learning Applications with Limited Pandemic Data

Climate change is posing new challenges to crop-related concerns, including food insecurity, supply stability, and economic planning. Accurately predicting crop yields is crucial for addressing these challenges. However, this prediction task is exceptionally complicated since crop yields depend on numerous factors such as weather, land surface, and soil quality, as well as their interactions. In recent years, machine learning models have been successfully applied in this domain. However, these models either restrict their tasks to a relatively small region, or only study over a single or few years, which makes them hard to generalize spatially and temporally. In this paper, we introduce a novel graph-based recurrent neural network for crop yield prediction, to incorporate both geographical and temporal knowledge in the model, and further boost predictive power. Our method is trained, validated, and tested on over 2000 counties from 41 states in the US mainland, covering years from 1981 to 2019. As far as we know, this is the first machine learning method that embeds geographical knowledge in crop yield prediction and predicts crop yields at the county level nationwide. We also laid a solid foundation by comparing our model on a nationwide scale with other well-known baseline methods, including linear models, tree-based models, and deep learning methods. Experiments show that our proposed method consistently outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods on various metrics, validating the effectiveness of geospatial and temporal information.

A GNN-RNN Approach for Harnessing Geospatial and Temporal Information: Application to Crop Yield Prediction

Infectious disease forecasting has been a key focus in the recent past owing to the COVID-19 pandemic and has proved to be an important tool in controlling the pandemic. With the advent of reliable spatiotemporal data, graph neural network models have been able to successfully model the inter-relation between the cross-region signals to produce quality forecasts, but like most deep-learning models they do not explicitly incorporate the underlying causal mechanisms. In this work, we employ a causal mechanistic model to guide the learning of the graph embeddings and propose a novel learning framework -- Causal-based Graph Neural Network (CausalGNN) that learns spatiotemporal embedding in a latent space where graph input features and epidemiological context are combined via a mutually learning mechanism using graph-based non-linear transformations. We design an attention-based dynamic GNN module to capture spatial and temporal disease dynamics. A causal module is added to the framework to provide epidemiological context for node embedding via ordinary differential equations. Extensive experiments on forecasting daily new cases of COVID-19 at global, US state, and US county levels show that the proposed method outperforms a broad range of baselines. The learned model which incorporates epidemiological context organizes the embedding in an efficient way by keeping the parameter size small leading to robust and accurate forecasting performance across various datasets.

CausalGNN: Causal-Based Graph Neural Networks for Spatio-Temporal Epidemic Forecasting

Detecting depression based on non-verbal behaviors has received great attention. However, most prior work on detecting depression mainly focused on detecting depressed individuals in laboratory settings, which are difficult to be generalized in practice. In addition, little attention has been paid to analyzing the non-verbal behaviors of depressed individuals in the wild. Therefore, in this paper, we present a multimodal depression dataset, D-Vlog, which consists of 961 vlogs (i.e., around 160 hours) collected from YouTube, which can be utilized in developing depression detection models based on the non-verbal behavior of individuals in real-world scenario. We develop a multimodal deep learning model that uses acoustic and visual features extracted from collected data to detect depression. Our proposed model employs the cross-attention mechanism to effectively capture the relationship across acoustic and visual features, and generates useful multimodal representations for depression detection. The extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model significantly outperforms other baseline models. We believe our dataset and the proposed model are useful for analyzing and detecting depressed individuals based on non-verbal behavior.

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