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Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, including quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inherent limitation of the encoder-decoder architecture. To address these issues, we design an efficient transformer-based model for LSTF, named Informer, with three distinctive characteristics: (i) a ProbSparse self-attention mechanism, which achieves O(L log L) in time complexity and memory usage, and has comparable performance on sequences&#39; dependency alignment. (ii) the self-attention distilling highlights dominating attention by halving cascading layer input, and efficiently handles extreme long input sequences. (iii) the generative style decoder, while conceptually simple, predicts the long time-series sequences at one forward operation rather than a step-by-step way, which drastically improves the inference speed of long-sequence predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets demonstrate that Informer significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to the LSTF problem.

AAAI 2021

Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting

We are pleased to announce the Thirty-Ninth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-25), which will be held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania at the Pennsylvania Convention Center from February 25 to March 4, 2025.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-25 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

### [Invited Speakers](https://aaai.org/conference/aaai/aaai-25/aaai-25-invited-speakers/)

Register [here](https://aaai.org/conference/aaai/aaai-25/registration/)

AAAI 2025

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-25 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.



Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, including quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inherent limitation of the encoder-decoder architecture. To address these issues, we design an efficient transformer-based model for LSTF, named Informer, with three distinctive characteristics: (i) a ProbSparse self-attention mechanism, which achieves O(L log L) in time complexity and memory usage, and has comparable performance on sequences' dependency alignment. (ii) the self-attention distilling highlights dominating attention by halving cascading layer input, and efficiently handles extreme long input sequences. (iii) the generative style decoder, while conceptually simple, predicts the long time-series sequences at one forward operation rather than a step-by-step way, which drastically improves the inference speed of long-sequence predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets demonstrate that Informer significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to the LSTF problem.

technical paper

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

We expand the literature on the price of anarchy (PoA) of simultaneous item auctions by considering settings with correlated values; we do this via the fundamental economic model of interdependent values (IDV).
	It is well-known that in multi-item settings with private values, correlated values can lead to bad PoA, which can be polynomially large in the number of agents~n.
	In the more general model of IDV, we show that the PoA can be polynomially large even in single-item settings.
	On the positive side, we identify a natural condition on information dispersion in the market, which enables good PoA guarantees. 
	Under this condition, we show that for single-item settings, the PoA of standard mechanisms degrades gracefully.
	For settings with multiple items we show a separation between two domains: 
	If there are more buyers, we devise a new simultaneous item auction with good PoA, under limited information asymmetry.
	To the best of our knowledge, this is the first positive PoA result for correlated values in multi-item settings.
	The main technical difficulty in establishing this result is that the standard tool for establishing PoA results --- the smoothness framework --- is unsuitable for IDV settings, and so we must introduce new techniques to address the unique challenges imposed by such settings.
	In the domain of more items, we establish impossibility results even for surprisingly simple scenarios.

PoA of Simple Auctions with Interdependent Values

Understanding model performance on unlabeled data is a fundamental challenge of developing, deploying, and maintaining AI systems. Model performance is typically evaluated using test sets or periodic manual quality assessments, both of which require laborious manual data labeling. Automated performance prediction techniques aim to mitigate this burden, but potential inaccuracy and a lack of trust in their predictions has prevented their widespread adoption. We address this core problem of performance prediction uncertainty with a method to compute prediction intervals for model performance. Our methodology uses transfer learning to train an uncertainty model to estimate the uncertainty of model performance predictions. We evaluate our approach across a wide range of drift conditions and show substantial improvement over competitive baselines. We believe this result makes prediction intervals, and performance prediction in general, significantly more practical for real-world use.

Learning Prediction Intervals for Model Performance

The NP-hard Material Consumption Scheduling Problem and closely related problems have been thoroughly studied since the 1980's. Roughly speaking, the problem deals with minimizing the makespan when scheduling jobs that consume non-renewable resources. We focus on the single-machine case without preemption: from time to time, the resources of the machine are (partially) replenished, thus allowing for meeting a necessary pre-condition for processing further jobs, each of which having individual resource demands. We initiate a systematic exploration of the parameterized computational complexity landscape of the problem, providing parameterized tractability as well as intractability results. Doing so, we mainly investigate how parameters related to the resource supplies influence the computational complexity. Thereby, we get a deepened understanding of this fundamental scheduling problem.

A Multivariate Complexity Analysis of the Material Consumption Scheduling Problem

The missing values, widely existed in multivariate time series data, hinder the effective data analysis. Existing time series imputation methods do not make full use of the label information in real-life time series data. In this paper, we propose a novel semi-supervised generative adversarial network model, named SSGAN, for missing value imputation in multivariate time series data. It consists of three players, i.e., a generator, a discriminator, and a classifier. The classifier predicts labels of time series data, and thus it drives the generator to estimate the missing values (or components), conditioned on observed components and data labels at the same time. We introduce a temporal reminder matrix to help the discriminator better distinguish the observed components from the imputed ones. Moreover, we theoretically prove that, SSGAN using the temporal reminder matrix and the classifier does learn to estimate missing values converging to the true data distribution when the Nash equilibrium is achieved. Extensive experiments on three public real-world datasets demonstrate that, SSGAN yields a more than 15% gain in performance, compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

Generative Semi-Supervised Learning for Multivariate Time Series Imputation

Protecting privacy in gradient-based learning has become increasingly critical as more sensitive information is being used. Many existing solutions seek to protect the sensitive gradients by constraining the overall privacy cost within a constant budget, where the protection is hand-designed and empirically calibrated to boost the utility of the resulting model. However, it remains challenging to choose the proper protection adapted for specific constraints so that the utility is maximized. To this end, we propose a novel Learning-to-Protect algorithm that automatically learns a model-based protector from a set of non-private learning tasks. The learned protector can be applied to private learning tasks to improve utility within the specific privacy budget constraint. Our empirical studies on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can achieve a superior utility with a given privacy constraint and generalize well to new private datasets distributed differently as compared to the hand-designed competitors.

Learning Model-Based Privacy Protection under Budget Constraints

With the prevalence of location based services, activity trajectories are being generated at a rapid pace. The activity trajectory data enriches traditional trajectory data with semantic activities of users, which not only shows where the users have been, but also the preference of users. However, the large volume of data is expensive for people to explore. To address this issue, we study the problem of Diversity-aware Activity Trajectory Selection (DaATS). Given a region of interest for a user, it finds a small number of representative activity trajectories that can provide the user with a broad coverage of different aspects of the region. The problem is challenging in both the efficiency of trajectory similarity computation and subset selection. To tackle the two challenges, we propose a novel solution by: (1) exploiting a deep metric learning method to speedup the similarity computation; and (2) proving that DaATS is an NP-hard problem, and developing an efficient approximation algorithm with performance guarantees. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that our proposal significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

Towards Efficient Selection of Activity Trajectories Based on Diversity and Coverage

Human intelligence exhibits compositional generalization (i.e., the capacity to
understand and produce unseen combinations of seen components), but current neural seq2seq models lack such ability. In this paper, we revisit iterative back-translation, a simple yet effective semi-supervised method, to investigate whether and how it can improve compositional generalization. In this work:
(1) We first empirically show that iterative back-translation substantially improves the performance on compositional generalization benchmarks (CFQ and SCAN).
(2) To understand why iterative back-translation is useful, we carefully examine the performance gains and find that iterative back-translation can increasingly correct errors in pseudo-parallel data.
(3) To further encourage this mechanism, we propose curriculum iterative back-translation, which better improves the quality of pseudo-parallel data, thus further improving the performance.

Revisiting Iterative Back-Translation from the Perspective of Compositional Generalization

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has crushed daily routines and is still rampaging through the world. Existing solution for nonpharmaceutical interventions usually needs to timely and precisely select a subset of residential urban areas for containment or even quarantine, where the spatial distribution of confirmed cases has been considered as a key criterion for the subset selection. While such containment measure has successfully stopped or slowed down the spread of COVID-19 in some countries, it is criticized for being inefficient or ineffective, as the statistics of confirmed cases are usually time-delayed and coarse-grained. To tackle the issues, we propose C-Watcher, a novel data-driven framework that aims at screening every neighborhood in a target city and predicting infection risks, prior to the spread of COVID-19 from epicenters to the city. In terms of design, C-Watcher collects large-scale long-term human mobility data from Baidu Maps, then characterizes every residential neighborhood in the city using a set of features based on urban mobility patterns. Furthermore, to transfer the firsthand knowledge (witted in epicenters) to the target city before local outbreaks, we adopt a novel adversarial encoder framework to learn â€œcity-invariantâ€ representations from the mobility-related features for precise early detection of high-risk neighborhoods, even before any confirmed cases known, in the target city. We carried out extensive experiments on C-Watcher using the real-data records in the early stage of COVID-19 outbreaks, where the results demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of C-Watcher for early detection of high-risk neighborhoods from a large number of cities.

C-Watcher: A Framework for Early Detection of High-Risk Neighborhoods Ahead of COVID-19 Outbreak

Given access to accurate dynamical models, modern planning approaches are effective in computing feasible and optimal plans for repetitive robotic tasks. However, it is difficult to model the true dynamics of the real world before execution, especially for tasks requiring interactions with objects whose parameters are unknown. A recent planning approach, CMAX, tackles this problem by adapting the planner online during execution to bias the resulting plans away from inaccurately modeled regions. CMAX, while being provably guaranteed to reach the goal, requires strong assumptions on the accuracy of the model used for planning and fails to improve the quality of the solution over repetitions of the same task. In this paper we propose CMAX++, an approach that leverages real-world experience to improve the quality of resulting plans over successive repetitions of a robotic task. CMAX++ achieves this by integrating model-free learning using acquired experience with model-based planning using the potentially inaccurate model. We provide provable guarantees on the completeness and asymptotic convergence of CMAX++ to the optimal path cost as the number of repetitions increases. CMAX++ is also shown to outperform baselines in simulated robotic tasks including 3D mobile robot navigation where the track friction is incorrectly modeled, and a 7D pick-and-place task where the mass of the object is unknown leading to discrepancy between true and modeled dynamics.

CMAX++ : Leveraging Experience in Planning and Execution Using Inaccurate Models

Continual learning has been a major problem in the deep learning community, where the main challenge is how to effectively learn a series of newly arriving tasks without forgetting the knowledge of previous tasks. Initiated by Learning without Forgetting (LwF), many of the existing works report that knowledge distillation is effective to preserve the previous knowledge, and hence they commonly use a soft label for the old task, namely a knowledge distillation (KD) loss, together with a class label for the new task, namely a cross entropy (CE) loss, to form a composite loss for a single neural network. However, this approach suffers from learning the knowledge by a CE loss as a KD loss often more strongly influences the objective function when they are in a competitive situation within a single network. This could be a critical problem particularly in a class incremental scenario, where the knowledge across tasks as well as within the new task, both of which can only be acquired by a CE loss, is essentially learned due to the existence of a unified classifier. In this paper, we propose a novel continual learning method, called Split-and-Bridge, which can successfully address the above problem by partially splitting a neural network into two partitions for training the new task separated from the old task and re-connecting them for learning the knowledge across tasks. In our thorough experimental analysis, our Split-and-Bridge method outperforms the state-of-the-art competitors in KD-based continual learning.

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PoA of Simple Auctions with Interdependent Values

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Sequence Complementor: Complementing Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Learnable Sequences

Stay up to date with the latest Underline news!

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RESOURCES

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