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This paper deals with the identification problem of causal effects in randomized trials with noncompliance. In this problem, generally, causal effects are not identifiable and thus have been evaluated under some strict assumptions, or through the bounds. Different from existing studies, we propose novel identification conditions of joint probabilities of potential outcomes, which allow us to derive a consistent estimator of the causal effect. Regarding the identification conditions of joint probabilities of potential outcomes, the assumptions of monotonicity (Pearl, 2009), independence between potential outcomes (Robins &amp; Richardson, 2011), gain equality (Li &amp; Pearl, 2019) and specific functional relationships between cause and effect (Pearl, 2009) have been utilized. In contrast, without such assumptions, the proposed conditions enable us to evaluate joint probabilities of potential outcomes using an instrumental variable and a proxy variable of potential outcomes. The results of this paper extend the range of solvable identification problems in causal inference.

AAAI 2021

Instrumental Variable-Based Identification for Causal Dffects Using Covariate Information

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
AAAI is providing you with a conference planner, which you can use to help organize your itinerary of activities. This includes talks to attend in person, talks to attend remotely, breaks with colleagues and your site seeing activities. To access this conference planner, please go to [https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io](https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io).

In order to access this site, you need to register. If you haven't already, please register [here](https://aaai.org/Conferences/AAAI-23/registration/).


AAAI 2023

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

This paper deals with the identification problem of causal effects in randomized trials with noncompliance. In this problem, generally, causal effects are not identifiable and thus have been evaluated under some strict assumptions, or through the bounds. Different from existing studies, we propose novel identification conditions of joint probabilities of potential outcomes, which allow us to derive a consistent estimator of the causal effect. Regarding the identification conditions of joint probabilities of potential outcomes, the assumptions of monotonicity (Pearl, 2009), independence between potential outcomes (Robins & Richardson, 2011), gain equality (Li & Pearl, 2019) and specific functional relationships between cause and effect (Pearl, 2009) have been utilized. In contrast, without such assumptions, the proposed conditions enable us to evaluate joint probabilities of potential outcomes using an instrumental variable and a proxy variable of potential outcomes. The results of this paper extend the range of solvable identification problems in causal inference.

technical paper

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

The need to replan arises in many applications. However, in the context of planning as heuristic search, it raises an annoying problem: if the previous plan is still executing, what should the new plan search take as its initial state? If it were possible to accurately predict how long replanning would take, it would be easy to find the appropriate state at which control will transfer from the previous plan to the new one. But as planning problems can vary enormously in their difficulty, this prediction can be difficult. Many current systems merely use a manually chosen constant duration. In this paper, we show how such ad hoc solutions can be avoided by integrating the choice of the appropriate initial state into the search process itself. The search is initialized with multiple candidate initial states and a time-aware evaluation function is used to prefer plans whose total goal achievement time is minimal. Experimental results show that this approach yields better behavior than either guessing a constant or trying to predict replanning time in advance. By making replanning more effective and easier to implement, this work aids in creating planning systems that can better handle the inevitable exigencies of real-world execution.

Choosing the Initial State for Online Replanning

We study fundamental problems in learning nonstationary time-series: how to effectively regularize time-series models and how to adaptively tune forgetting rates.  The effectiveness of L2 regularization depends on the choice of coordinates, and the variables need to be appropriately normalized.  In nonstationary environment, however, what is appropriate can vary over time.  Proposed regularization is invariant to the invertible linear transformation of coordinates, eliminating the necessity of normalization.  We also propose an ensemble learning approach to adaptively tuning the forgetting rate and regularization-coefficient.  We train multiple models with varying hyperparameters and evaluate their performance by the use of multiple hyper forgetting rates.  At each step, we choose the best performing model on the basis of the best performing hyper forgetting rate.  The effectiveness of the proposed approaches is demonstrated with real time-series.

Second Order Techniques for Learning Time-Series with Structural Breaks

Motion segmentation aims at separating motions of different moving objects in a video sequence. Facing the complicated real-world scenes, recent studies reveal that combining multiple geometric models would be a more effective way than just employing a single one. This motivates a new wave of model-fusion based motion segmentation methods. However, the vast majority of models of this kind merely seek consensus in spectral embeddings. We argue that a simple consensus might be insufficient to filter out the harmful information which is either unreliable or semantically unrelated to the segmentation task. Therefore, how to automatically select valuable patterns across multiple models should be regarded as a key challenge here. In this paper, we present a novel geometric-model-fusion framework for motion segmentation, which targets at constructing a consistent affinity matrix across all the geometric models. Specifically, it incorporates the structural information shared by affinity matrices to select those semantically consistent entries. Meanwhile, a multiplicative decomposition scheme is adopted to ensure structural consistency among multiple affinities. To solve this problem, an alternative optimization scheme is proposed, together with a proof of its global convergence. Experiments on four real-world benchmarks show the superiority of the proposed method.

What to Select: Pursuing Consistent Motion Segmentation from Multiple Geometric Models

Most previous works on neural sentence simplification exploit seq2seq model to rewrite a sentence without explicitly considering the semantic information of the sentence. This may lead to the semantic deviation of the simplified sentence. In this paper, we leverage semantic dependency graph to aid neural sentence simplification system. We propose a new sentence simplification model with semantic dependency information, called SDISS (as shorthand for Semantic Dependency Information guided Sentence Simplification), which incorporates semantic dependency graph to guide sentence simplification. We evaluate SDISS on three benchmark datasets and it outperforms a number of strong baseline models on the SARI and FKGL metrics. Human evaluation also shows SDISS can produce simplified sentences with better quality.

Neural Sentence Simplification with Semantic Dependency Information

Natural language inference (NLI) is a fundamental NLP task, investigating the entailment relationship between two texts.â€¨ Popular NLI datasets present the task at sentence-level. While adequate for testing semantic representations, they fall short for testing contextual reasoning over long texts, which is a natural part of the human inference process. We introduce ConTRoL, a new dataset for ConTextual Reasoning over Long texts. Consisting of 8,325 expert-designed "context-hypothesis" pairs with gold labels, ConTRoL is a passage-level NLI dataset with a focus on complex contextual reasoning types such as logical reasoning. It is derived from competitive selection and recruitment test (verbal reasoning test) for police recruitment, with expert level quality. Compared with previous NLI benchmarks, the materials in ConTRoL are much more challenging, involving a range of reasoning types. Empirical results show that state-of-the-art language models perform by far worse than educated humans. Our dataset can also serve as a testing-set for downstream tasks like checking the factual correctness of summaries.

Natural Language Inference in Context - Investigating Contextual Reasoning over Long Texts

Although Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is useful for generating samples from the posterior distribution, it often suffers from intractability when dealing with large-scale datasets. To address this issue, we propose Hierarchical Initialized Alternating Back-propagation (HiABP) for efficient Bayesian inference. Especially, we endow Alternating Backpropagation (ABP) method with a well-designed initializer and hierarchical structure, composing the pipeline of Initializing, Improving, and Learning back-propagation. It saves much time for the generative model to initialize the latent variable by constraining a sampler to be close to the true posterior distribution. The initialized latent variable is then improved significantly by an MCMC sampler. Thus the proposed method has the strengths of both methods, i.e., the effectiveness of MCMC and the efficiency of variational inference. Experimental results validate our framework can outperform other popular deep generative models in modeling natural images and learning from incomplete data. We further demonstrate the unsupervised disentanglement of hierarchical latent representation with controllable image synthesis.

HiABP: Hierarchical Initialized ABP for Unsupervised Representation Learning

Many recent invertible neural architectures are based on coupling block designs where variables are divided in two subsets which serve as inputs of an easily invertible (usually affine) triangular transformation. While such a transformation is invertible, its Jacobian is very sparse and thus may lack expressiveness. This work presents a simple remedy by noting that subdivision and (affine) coupling 
can be repeated recursively within the resulting subsets, leading to an efficiently invertible block with dense, triangular Jacobian. By formulating our recursive coupling scheme via a hierarchical architecture, HINT allows sampling from a joint distribution p(y,x) and the corresponding posterior p(x|y) using a single invertible network. We evaluate our method on some standard data sets and benchmark its full power for density estimation and Bayesian inference on a novel data set of 2D shapes in Fourier parameterization, which enables consistent visualization of samples for different dimensionalities.

HINT: Hierarchical Invertible Neural Transport for Density Estimation and Bayesian Inference

Given the ubiquity of negative campaigning in recent political elections, we find it important to study its properties from a computational perspective. To this end, we present a model where elections can be manipulated by convincing voters to demote specific non-favored candidates, and study its properties in the classic setting of scoring rules.

When the goal is constructive (making a preferred candidate win),  we prove that finding such a demotion strategy is easy for Plurality and Veto, while generally hard for t-approval and Borda. We also provide a t-factor approximation for t-approval for every fixed t, and a 3-factor approximation algorithm for Borda. Interestingly enough - following recent trends in political science that show that the effectiveness of negative campaigning depends on the type of candidate and demographic - when assigning varying prices to different possible demotion operations, we are able to provide inapproximability results. 

When the goal is destructive (making the leading opponent lose), we show that the problem is easy for a broad class of scoring rules.

Targeted Negative Campaigning: Complexity and Approximations

Model quantization helps to reduce model size and latency of deep neural networks. Mixed precision quantization is favorable with customized hardwares supporting arithmetic operations at multiple bit-widths to achieve maximum efficiency. We propose a novel learning-based algorithm to derive mixed precision models end-to-end under target computation constraints and model sizes. During the optimization, the bit-width of each layer / kernel in the model is at a fractional status of two consecutive bit-widths which can be adjusted gradually. With a differentiable regularization term, the resource constraints can be met during the quantization-aware training which results in an optimized mixed precision model. Our final models achieve comparable or better performance than previous quantization methods with mixed precision on MobilenetV1/V2, ResNet18 under different resource constraints on ImageNet dataset.

FracBits: Mixed Precision Quantization via Fractional Bit-Widths

Although few-shot learning and one-class classification (OCC), i.e., learning a binary classifier with data from only one class, have been separately well studied, their intersection remains rather unexplored. Our work addresses the few-shot OCC problem and presents a method to modify the episodic data sampling strategy of the model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm to learn a model initialization particularly suited for learning few-shot OCC tasks. This is done by explicitly optimizing for an initialization which only requires few gradient steps with one-class minibatches to yield a performance increase on class-balanced test data. We provide a theoretical analysis that explains why our approach works in the few-shot OCC scenario, while other meta-learning algorithms fail, including the unmodified MAML. Our experiments on eight datasets from the image and time-series domains show that our method leads to better results than classical OCC and few-shot classification approaches, and demonstrate the ability to learn unseen tasks from only few normal class samples. Moreover, we successfully train anomaly detectors for a real-world application on sensor readings recorded during industrial manufacturing of workpieces with a CNC milling machine, by using few normal examples. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that the proposed data sampling technique increases the performance of more recent meta-learning algorithms in few-shot OCC and yields state-of-the-art results in this problem setting.

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Choosing the Initial State for Online Replanning

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Probabilities of Potential Outcome Types in Experimental Studies: Identification and Estimation Based on Proxy Covariate Information

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