United States

This paper revisits building  machine learning algorithms that involve interactions between entities, such as those between financial assets in an actively managed portfolio, or interactions between users in a social network. Our goal is to forecast the future evolution of ensembles of multivariate time series in such applications (e.g., the future return of a financial asset or the future popularity of a Twitter account). Designing ML algorithms for such systems requires addressing the challenges of high-dimensional interactions and non-linearity. Existing approaches usually adopt an ad-hoc approach to integrating high-dimensional techniques into non-linear models and recent studies have shown these approaches have questionable efficacy in time-evolving interacting systems. 


To this end, we propose a novel framework, which we dub as the additive influence model. Under our modeling assumption, we show that it is possible to decouple the learning of high-dimensional interactions from the learning of non-linear feature interactions. To learn the high-dimensional interactions, we leverage kernel-based techniques, with provable guarantees, to embed the entities in a low-dimensional latent space. To learn the non-linear feature-response interactions, we generalize prominent machine learning techniques, including designing a new statistically sound non-parametric method and an ensemble learning algorithm optimized for vector regressions. 
Extensive experiments on two common applications demonstrate that our new algorithms deliver significantly stronger forecasting power compared to standard and recently proposed methods. 

AAAI 2023

Symphony in the Latent Space: Provably Integrating High-dimensional Techniques with Non-linear Machine Learning Models

high-dimensional techniques; non-linearity; multivariate time series

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
AAAI is providing you with a conference planner, which you can use to help organize your itinerary of activities. This includes talks to attend in person, talks to attend remotely, breaks with colleagues and your site seeing activities. To access this conference planner, please go to [https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io](https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io).

In order to access this site, you need to register. If you haven't already, please register [here](https://aaai.org/Conferences/AAAI-23/registration/).


The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

poster

Human trajectory Prediction (HTP) in complex social environments plays a crucial and fundamental role in artificial intelligence systems. Conventional methods make use of both history behaviors and social interactions to forecast future trajectories. However, we demonstrate that the social environment is a confounder that misleads the model to learn spurious correlations between history and future trajectories. To end this, we first formulate the social environment, history and future trajectory variables into a structural causal model to analyze the causalities among them. Based on causal intervention rather than conventional likelihood, we propose a Social Environment ADjustment (SEAD) method, to remove the confounding effect of the social environment. The core of our method is implemented by a Social Cross Attention (SCA) module, which is universal, simple and effective. Our method has consistent improvements on ETH-UCY datasets with three baseline models and achieves competitive performances with existing methods.

Causal Intervention for Human Trajectory Prediction with Cross Attention Mechanism

Safe Interval Path Planning (SIPP) is a powerful algorithm for solving single-agent pathfinding problems when the agent is confined to a graph and certain vertices/edges of this graph are blocked at certain time intervals due to dynamic obstacles that populate the environment. Original SIPP algorithm relies on the assumption that the agent is able to stop instantaneously. However, this assumption often does not hold in practice, e.g. a mobile robot moving with a cruising speed is not able to stop immediately but rather requires gradual deceleration to a full stop that takes time. In other words, the robot is subject to kinodynamic constraints. Unfortunately, as we show in this work, in such a case original SIPP is incomplete. To this end, we introduce a novel variant of SIPP that is provably complete and optimal for planning with acceleration/deceleration. In the experimental evaluation we show that the key property of the original SIPP still holds for the modified version -- it performs much less expansions compared to A* and, as a result, is notably faster. 

Safe Interval Path Planning With Kinodynamic Constraints

Regression trees are one of the oldest forms of AI models, and their predictions can be made without a calculator, which makes them broadly useful, particularly for high-stakes applications. Within the large literature on regression trees, there has been little effort towards full provable optimization, mainly due to the computational hardness of the problem. This work proposes a dynamic programming-with-bounds approach to the construction of provably-optimal sparse regression trees. We leverage a novel lower bound based on an optimal solution to the k-Means clustering algorithm on one dimensional data. We are often able to find optimal sparse trees in seconds, even for challenging datasets that involve large numbers of samples and highly-correlated features.

Optimal Sparse Regression Trees

Constraint-based applications attempt to identify a solution that meets all defined user requirements. If the requirements are inconsistent with the underlying constraint set, algorithms that compute diagnoses for inconsistent constraints should be implemented to help users resolve the “no solution could be found” dilemma. FastDiag is a typical direct diagnosis algorithm that supports diagnosis calculation without pre-determining conflicts. However, this approach faces runtime performance issues, especially when analyzing complex and large-scale knowledge bases. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm, so-called FastDiagP, which is based on the idea of speculative programming. This algorithm extends FastDiag by integrating a parallelization mechanism that anticipates and pre-calculates consistency checks requested by FastDiag. This mechanism helps to provide consistency checks with fast answers and boosts the algorithm’s runtime performance. The performance improvements of our proposed algorithm have been shown through empirical results using the Linux-2.6.3.33 configuration knowledge base.

FastDiagP: An Algorithm for Parallelized Direct Diagnosis

Video captioning aims to generate natural language sentences that describe the given video accurately. Existing methods obtain favorable generation by exploring richer visual representations in encode phase or improving the decoding ability. However, the long-tailed problem hinders these attempts at low-frequency tokens, which rarely occur but carry critical semantics, playing a vital role in the detailed generation. In this paper, we introduce a novel Refined Semantic enhancement method towards Frequency Diffusion (RSFD), a captioning model that constantly perceives the linguistic representation of the infrequent tokens. Concretely, a Frequency-Aware Diffusion (FAD) module is proposed to comprehend the semantics of low-frequency tokens to break through generation limitations. In this way, the caption is refined by promoting the absorption of tokens with insufficient occurrence. Based on FAD, we design a Divergent Semantic Supervisor (DSS) module to compensate for the information loss of high-frequency tokens brought by the diffusion process, where the semantics of low-frequency tokens is further emphasized to alleviate the long-tailed problem. Extensive experiments indicate that RSFD outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on two benchmark datasets, i.e., MSR-VTT and MSVD, demonstrate that the enhancement of low-frequency tokens semantics can obtain a competitive generation effect. Code is available at https://github.com/lzp870/RSFD.

Refined Semantic Enhancement towards Frequency Diffusion for Video Captioning

In this paper, for the first time, we study the formal verification of Bayesian mechanisms through strategic reasoning. We rely on the framework of Probabilistic Strategy Logic (PSL), which is well-suited for representing and verifying multi-agent systems with incomplete information. We take advantage of the recent results on the decidability of PSL model checking under memoryless strategies, and reduce the problem of formally verifying Bayesian mechanisms to PSL model checking. We show how to encode Bayesian-Nash equilibrium and economical properties, and illustrate our approach with different kinds of mechanisms.

Formal Verification of Bayesian Mechanisms

Current approaches to multi-agent cooperation rely heavily on centralized mechanisms or explicit communication protocols to ensure convergence. This paper studies the problem of distributed multi-agent learning without resorting to centralized components or explicit communication. It examines the use of distribution matching to facilitate the coordination of independent agents. In the proposed scheme, each agent independently minimizes the distribution mismatch to the corresponding component of a target visitation distribution. The theoretical  analysis shows that under certain conditions, each agent minimizing its individual  distribution mismatch allows the convergence to the joint policy that generated the target distribution. Further, if the target distribution is from a joint policy that optimizes a cooperative task, the optimal policy for a combination of this task reward and the distribution matching reward is the same joint policy. This insight is used to formulate a practical algorithm (\textsc{dm$^2$}), in which each individual agent matches a target distribution derived from concurrently sampled trajectories from a joint expert policy. Experimental validation on the StarCraft domain shows that combining (1) a task reward, and (2) a distribution matching reward for expert demonstrations for the same task, allows agents to outperform a naive distributed baseline. Additional experiments probe the conditions under which expert demonstrations need to be sampled to obtain the learning benefits.

DM$^2$: Decentralized Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning via Distribution Matching

Question answering (QA) models often rely on large-scale training datasets, which necessitates the development of a data generation framework to reduce the cost of manual annotations. Although several recent studies have aimed to generate synthetic questions with single-span answers, no study has been conducted on the creation of list questions with multiple, non-contiguous spans as answers. To address this gap, we propose LIQUID, an automated framework for generating list QA datasets from unlabeled corpora. We first convert a passage from Wikipedia or PubMed into a summary and extract named entities from the summarized text as candidate answers. This allows us to select answers that are semantically correlated in context and is, therefore, suitable for constructing list questions. We then create questions using an off-the-shelf question generator with the extracted entities and original passage. Finally, iterative filtering and answer expansion are performed to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the answers. Using our synthetic data, we significantly improve the performance of the previous best list QA models by exact-match F1 scores of 5.0 on MultiSpanQA, 1.9 on Quoref, and 2.4 averaged across three BioASQ benchmarks.

LIQUID: A Framework for List Question Answering Dataset Generation

Conditional mean embedding (CME) operators encode conditional probability densities within reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). In this paper, we present a decentralized algorithm for a collection of agents to cooperatively approximate CME over a network. Communication constraints limit the agents from sending all data to their neighbors; we only allow sparse representations of covariance operators to be exchanged among agents, compositions of which defines CME. Using a coherence-based compression scheme, we present a consensus-type algorithm that preserves the average of the approximations of the covariance operators across the network. We theoretically prove that the iterative dynamics in RKHS is stable. We then empirically study our algorithm to estimate CMEs to learn spectra of Koopman operators for Markovian dynamical systems and to execute approximate value iteration for Markov decision processes (MDPs).

Compressed Decentralized Learning of Conditional Mean Embedding Operators in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces

Modeling what makes an advertisement persuasive, i.e.,
eliciting the desired response from consumer, is critical to
the study of propaganda, social psychology, and marketing.
Despite its importance, computational modeling of persuasion
in computer vision is still in its infancy, primarily
due to the lack of benchmark datasets that can provide
persuasion-strategy labels associated with ads. Motivated by
persuasion literature in social psychology and marketing, we
introduce an extensive vocabulary of persuasion strategies
and build the first ad image corpus annotated with persuasion
strategies. We then formulate the task of persuasion strategy
prediction with multi-modal learning, where we design a
multi-task attention fusion model that can leverage other
ad-understanding tasks to predict persuasion strategies. Further,
we conduct a real-world case study on 1600 advertising
campaigns of 30 Fortune-500 companies where we use our
model’s predictions to analyze which strategies work with
different demographics (age and gender). The dataset also
provides image segmentation masks, which marks persuasion
strategies in the corresponding ad images on the test split.
We publicly release our code and dataset.

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