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Access to a representative sample from the population is an assumption that underpins all of machine learning. Selection effects can cause observations to instead come from a subpopulation, by which our inferences may be subject to bias. 
It is therefore important to know whether or not a sample is affected by selection effects. We study under which conditions we can identify selection bias and give results for both parametric and non-parametric families of distributions. Based on these results we develop two practical methods to determine whether or not an observed sample comes from a distribution subject to selection bias. Through extensive evaluation on synthetic and real world data we verify that our methods beat the state of the art both in detecting as well as characterizing selection bias.

AAAI 2023

Identifying Selection Bias from Observational Data

ru: bayesian networks

ru: causality

ml: causal learning

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
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The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

poster

Conditional independence (CI) tests underlie many approaches to model testing and structure learning in causal inference. Most existing CI tests for categorical and ordinal data stratify the sample by the conditioning variables, perform simple independence tests in each stratum, and combine the results. Unfortunately, the statistical power of this approach degrades rapidly as the number of conditioning variables increases. Here we propose a simple unified CI test for ordinal and categorical data that maintains reasonable calibration and power in high dimensions. We show that our test outperforms existing baselines in model testing and structure learning for dense directed graphical models while being comparable for sparse models. Our approach could be attractive for causal model testing because it is easy to implement, can be used with non-parametric or parametric probability models, has the symmetry property, and has reasonable computational requirements.

A Simple Unified Approach to Testing High-Dimensional Conditional Independences for Categorical and Ordinal Data

Self-supervised learning has demonstrated remarkable capability in representation learning for skeleton-based action recognition. Existing methods mainly focus on applying global data augmentation to generate different views of the skeleton sequence for contrastive learning. However, due to the rich action clues in the skeleton sequences, existing methods may only take a global perspective to learn to discriminate different skeletons without thoroughly leveraging the local relationship between different skeleton joints and video frames, which is essential for real-world applications. In this work, we propose a Partial Spatio-Temporal Learning (PSTL) framework to exploit the local relationship from a partial skeleton sequences built by a unique spatio-temporal masking strategy.  Specifically, we construct a negative-sample-free triplet steam structure that is composed of an anchor stream without any masking, a spatial masking stream with Central Spatial Masking (CSM), and a temporal masking stream with Motion Attention Temporal Masking (MATM). The feature cross-correlation matrix is measured between the anchor stream and the other two masking streams, respectively. (1) Central Spatial Masking discards selected joints from the feature calculation process, where the joints with a higher degree of centrality have a higher possibility of being selected.  (2) Motion Attention Temporal Masking leverages the motion of action and remove frames that move faster with a higher possibility. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on NTURGB+D 60, NTURGB+D 120 and PKU-MMD under various downstream tasks. Furthermore, to simulate the real-world scenarios, a practical evaluation is performed where some skeleton joints are lost in downstream tasks.In contrast to previous methods that suffer from large performance drops, our PSTL can still achieve remarkable results under this challenging setting, validating the robustness of our method.

Self-supervised Action Representation Learning from Partial Spatio-Temporal Skeleton Sequences

While federated learning has shown strong results in optimizing a machine learning model without direct access to the original data, 
While federated learning has shown strong results in opti- mizing a machine learning model without direct access to the original data, its performance may be hindered by in- termittent client availability which slows down the conver- gence and biases the final learned model. There are significant challenges to achieve both stable and bias-free training un- der arbitrary client availability. To address these challenges, we propose a framework named Federated Graph-based Sam- pling (FEDGS), to stabilize the global model update and mitigate the long-term bias given arbitrary client availabil- ity simultaneously. First, we model the data correlations of clients with a Data-Distribution-Dependency Graph (3DG) that helps keep the sampled clients data apart from each other, which is theoretically shown to improve the approximation to the optimal model update. Second, constrained by the far- distance in data distribution of the sampled clients, we fur- ther minimize the variance of the numbers of times that the clients are sampled, to mitigate long-term bias. To validate the effectiveness of FEDGS, we conduct experiments on three datasets under a comprehensive set of seven client availability modes. Our experimental results confirm FEDGS’s advantage in both enabling a fair client-sampling scheme and improving the model performance under arbitrary client availability. Our code is available at https://github.com/WwZzz/FedGS.

FedGS: Federated Graph-based Sampling with Arbitrary Client Availability

DatalogMTL is a powerful extension of Datalog with operators from metric temporal logic (MTL), which has received significant attention in recent years. In this paper, we investigate materialisation-based reasoning (a.k.a. forward chaining) in the context of DatalogMTL programs and datasets with bounded intervals, where partial representations of the canonical model are obtained through successive rounds of rule applications. Although materialisation does not naturally terminate in this setting, it is known that the structure of canonical models is ultimately periodic. Our first contribution in this paper is a detailed analysis of the periodic structure of canonical models; in particular, we formulate saturation conditions whose satisfaction by a partial materialisation implies an ability to recover the full canonical model via unfolding; this allows us to compute the actual periods describing the repeating parts of the canonical model as well as to establish concrete bounds on the number of rounds of rule applications required to achieve saturation. Based on these theoretical results, we propose a practical reasoning algorithm where saturation can be efficiently detected as materialisation progresses, and where the relevant periods used to evaluate entailment of queries via unfolding are efficiently computed. We have implemented our algorithm  and our experiments suggest that  our approach is both scalable and robust.

Materialisation-based Reasoning in DatalogMTL with Bounded Intervals

Most existing deblurring methods focus on removing global blur caused by camera shake, while they cannot well handle local blur caused by object movements. To fill the vacancy of local deblurring in real scenes, we establish the first real local motion blur dataset (ReLoBlur), which is captured by a synchronized beam-splitting photographing system and corrected by a post-progressing pipeline. Based on ReLoBlur, we propose a Local Blur-Aware Gated network (LBAG) and several local blur-aware techniques to bridge the gap between global and local deblurring: 1) a blur detection approach based on background subtraction to localize blurred regions; 2) a gate mechanism to guide our network to focus on blurred regions; and 3) a blur-aware patch cropping strategy to address data imbalance problem. Extensive experiments prove the reliability of ReLoBlur dataset, and demonstrate that LBAG achieves better performance than state-of-the-art global deblurring methods and our proposed local blur-aware techniques are effective.

Real-world Deep Local Motion Deblurring

Many AI-related reasoning problems are based on the problem of satisfiability of propositional formulas with some cardinality-minimality condition. While the complexity of the satisfiability problem (SAT) is well understood when considering systematically all fragments of propositional logic within Schaefer’s framework (STOC 1978) this is not the case when such minimality condition is added. We consider the CardMinSat problem, which asks, given a formula φ and an atom x, whether x is true in some cardinality-minimal model of φ. We completely classify the computational complexity of the CardMinSat problem within Schaefer’s framework, thus paving the way for a better understanding of the tractability frontier of many AI-related reasoning problems. To this end we use advanced algebraic tools developped by (Schnoor & Schnoor 2008) and (Lagerkvist 2014).

Complexity of Reasoning with Cardinality Minimality Conditions

The world is currently seeing frequent local outbreaks of epidemics, such as COVID-19 and Monkeypox. Preventing further propagation of the outbreak requires prompt implementation of control measures, and a critical step is to quickly infer patient zero. This backtracking task is challenging for two reasons. First, due to the sudden emergence of local epidemics, information recording the spreading process is limited. Second, the spreading process has strong randomness. To address these challenges, we tailor a gnn-based model to establish the inverse statistical association between the current and initial state implicitly. This model uses contact topology and the current state of the local population to determine the possibility that each individual could be patient zero. We benchmark our model on data from important epidemiological models on five real temporal networks, showing performance significantly superior to previous methods. We also demonstrate that our method is robust to missing information about contact structure or current state. Further, we find the individuals assigned higher inferred possibility by model are closer to patient zero in terms of core number and the activity sequence recording the times at which the individual had contact with other nodes.

Inferring Patient Zero on Temporal Networks via Graph Neural Networks

Embedding tables are usually huge in click-through rate (CTR) prediction models. To train and deploy the CTR models efficiently and economically, it is necessary to compress their embedding tables at the training stage. To this end, we formulate a novel quantization training framework to compress the embeddings from the training stage, termed low-precision training. Further, we provide theoretical analysis on its convergence. The results show that stochastic weight quantization is more suitable for low-precision training than deterministic weight quantization. To reduce the accuracy degradation, we propose adaptive low-precision training (ALPT) to learn the step size (i.e., the quantization resolution) adaptively. Experiments with CTR models on two real-world datasets confirm our analysis and show that ALPT can significantly improve prediction accuracy, especially at extremely low bit widths. For the first time in CTR models, we successfully train 8-bit embeddings without sacrificing prediction accuracy. The code of ALPT is publicly available.

Adaptive Low-Precision Training for Embeddings in Click-Through Rate Prediction

Adversarial attacks on thermal infrared imaging expose the risk of related applications. Estimating the security of these systems is essential for safely deploying them in the real world. In many cases, realizing the attacks in the physical space requires elaborate special perturbations. These solutions are often \emph{impractical} and \emph{attention-grabbing}. To address the need for a physically practical and stealthy adversarial attack, we introduce \textsc{HotCold} Block, a novel physical attack for infrared detectors that hide persons utilizing the wearable Warming Paste and Cooling Paste. By attaching these readily available temperature-controlled materials to the body, \textsc{HotCold} Block evades human eyes efficiently. Moreover, unlike existing methods that build adversarial patches with complex texture and structure features, \textsc{HotCold} Block utilizes an SSP-oriented adversarial optimization algorithm that enables attacks with pure color blocks and explores the influence of size, shape, and position on attack performance. Extensive experimental results in both digital and physical environments demonstrate the performance of our proposed \textsc{HotCold} Block. \emph{Code is available: https://github.com/weihui1308/HOTCOLDBlock}.

Identifying Selection Bias from Observational Data

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