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Forecasting time series with extreme events has been a challenging and prevalent research topic, especially when the time series data are affected by complicated uncertain factors, such as is the case in hydrologic prediction. Diverse traditional and deep learning models have been applied to discover the nonlinear relationships and recognize the complex patterns in these types of data. However, existing methods usually ignore the negative influence of imbalanced data, or severe events, on model training. Moreover, methods are usually evaluated on a small number of generally well-behaved time series, which does not show their ability to generalize. To tackle these issues, we propose a novel probability-enhanced neural network model, called NEC+, which concurrently learns extreme and normal prediction functions and a way to choose among them via selective back propagation. We evaluate the proposed model on the difficult 3-day ahead hourly water level prediction task applied to 9 reservoirs in California. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines and exhibits superior generalization ability on data with diverse distributions.

AAAI 2023

An Extreme-Adaptive Time Series Prediction Model Based on Probability-Enhanced LSTM Neural Networks

reservoir water level prediction

hydrologic prediction

multivariate time series analysis

deep learning models

extreme value theory

stages 

COLING, the International Conference on Computational Linguistics, is one of the premier conferences for natural language processing and computational linguistics. Often grouped within the field of artificial intelligence, but actually pre-dating the development of artificial intelligence, advances in computational linguistics and natural language processing are now some of the major drivers behind the use of artificial intelligence for commercial and social applications – for example, on-line search, machine translation and with voice-assisted conversational devices.

First established in 1965, the biennial COLING conference is held in diverse parts of the globe and attracts participants from both top-ranked research centers and emerging countries. Today, the most important developments in our field are taking place not only in universities and academic research institutes, but also in industrial research departments and in technological startups. COLING conferences provide opportunities for all these communities to showcase their exciting developments.

COLING 2020

COLING, the International Conference on Computational Linguistics, is one of the premier conferences for natural language processing and computational linguistics. Often grouped within the field of artificial intelligence, but actually pre-dating the development of artificial intelligence, advances in computational linguistics and natural language processing are now some of the major drivers behind the use of artificial intelligence for commercial and social applications – for example, on-line search, machine translation and with voice-assisted conversational devices.

poster

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
AAAI is providing you with a conference planner, which you can use to help organize your itinerary of activities. This includes talks to attend in person, talks to attend remotely, breaks with colleagues and your site seeing activities. To access this conference planner, please go to [https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io](https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io).

In order to access this site, you need to register. If you haven't already, please register [here](https://aaai.org/Conferences/AAAI-23/registration/).


The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

Many fundamental low-rank optimization problems, such as matrix completion, phase retrieval, and robust PCA, can be formulated as the matrix sensing problem. Two main approaches for solving matrix sensing are based on semidefinite programming (SDP) and Burer-Monteiro (B-M) factorization. The former suffers from high computational and space complexities, whereas the latter may return a spurious solution due to the non-convexity of the problem. The existing theoretical guarantees for the success of these methods have led to similar conservative conditions, which may wrongly imply that these methods have comparable performances. In this paper, we shed light on some major differences between these two methods. First, we present a class of structured matrix completion problems for which the B-M methods fail with an overwhelming probability, while the SDP method works correctly. Second, we identify a class of highly sparse matrix completion problems for which the B-M method works and the SDP method fails. Third, we prove that although the B-M method exhibits the same performance independent of the rank of the unknown solution, the success of the SDP method is correlated to the rank of the solution and improves as the rank increases. Unlike the existing literature that has mainly focused on those instances of matrix sensing for which both SDP and B-M work, this paper offers the first result on the unique merit of each method over the alternative approach. 


Semidefinite Programming Versus Burer-Monteiro Factorization for Matrix Sensing

Predicting the trajectories of pedestrians in crowded conditions is an important task for applications like autonomous navigation systems. Previous studies have tackled this problem using two strategies. They (1) infer all future steps recursively, or (2) predict the potential destinations of pedestrians at once and interpolate the intermediate steps to arrive there. However, these strategies often suffer from the accumulated errors of the recursive inference, or restrictive assumptions about social relations in the intermediate path. In this paper, we present a graph convolutional network-based trajectory prediction. Firstly, we propose a control point prediction that divides the future path into three sections and infers the intermediate destinations of pedestrians to reduce the accumulated error. To do this, we construct multi-relational weighted graphs to account for their physical and complex social relations. We then introduce a trajectory refinement step based on a spatio-temporal and multi-relational graph. By considering the social interactions between neighbors, better prediction results are achievable. In experiments, the proposed network achieves state-of-the-art performance on various real-world trajectory prediction benchmarks.

A Set of Control Points Conditioned Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction

High-resolution (HR) images are usually downscaled to lowresolution (LR) ones for better display and afterward upscaled back to the original size to recover details. Recent work in image rescaling formulates downscaling and upscaling as a unified task and learns a bijective mapping between HR and LR via invertible networks. However, in real-world applications (e.g., social media), most images are compressed for transmission. Lossy compression will lead to irreversible information loss on LR images, hence damaging the inverse upscaling procedure and degrading the reconstruction accuracy. In this paper, we propose the Self-Asymmetric Invertible Network (SAIN) for compression-aware image rescaling. To tackle the distribution shift, we first develop an end-toend asymmetric framework with two separate bijective mappings for high-quality and compressed LR images, respectively. Then, based on empirical analysis of this framework, we model the distribution of the lost information (including downscaling and compression) using isotropic Gaussian mixtures and propose the Enhanced Invertible Block to derive high-quality/compressed LR images in one forward pass. Besides, we design a set of losses to regularize the learned LR images and enhance the invertibility. Extensive experiments demonstrate the consistent improvements of SAIN across various image rescaling datasets in terms of both quantitative and qualitative evaluation under standard image compression formats (i.e., JPEG and WebP).

Self-Asymmetric Invertible Network for Compression-Aware Image Rescaling

The ability to combine learned knowledge and skills to solve novel tasks is a key aspect of generalization in humans that allows us to understand and perform tasks described by novel language utterances. While progress has been made in supervised learning settings, no work has yet studied compositional generalization of a reinforcement learning agent following natural language instructions in an embodied environment. We develop a set of tasks in a photo-realistic simulated kitchen environment that allow us to study the degree to which a behavioral policy captures the systematicity in language by studying its zero-shot generalization performance on held out natural language instructions. We show that our agent which leverages a novel additive action-value decomposition in tandem with attention based subgoal prediction is able to exploit composition in text instructions to generalize to unseen tasks.

Learning Compositional Tasks from Language Instructions

One-shot segmentation of brain tissues is typically a dual-model iterative learning: a registration model (reg-model) warps a carefully-labeled atlas onto unlabeled images to initialize their pseudo masks for training a segmentation model (seg-model); the seg-model revises the pseudo masks to enhance the reg-model for a better warping in the next iteration. However, there is a key weakness in such dual-model iteration that the spatial misalignment inevitably caused by the reg-model could misguide the seg-model, which makes it converge on an inferior segmentation performance eventually. In this paper, we propose a novel image-aligned style transformation to reinforce the dual-model iterative learning for robust one-shot segmentation of brain tissues. Specifically, we first utilize the reg-model to warp the atlas onto an unlabeled image, and then employ the Fourier-based amplitude exchange with perturbation to transplant the style of the unlabeled image into the aligned atlas. This allows the subsequent seg-model to learn on the aligned and style-transferred copies of the atlas instead of unlabeled images, which naturally guarantees the correct spatial correspondence of an image-mask training pair, without sacrificing the diversity of intensity patterns carried by the unlabeled images. Furthermore, we introduce a feature-aware content consistency in addition to the image-level similarity to constrain the reg-model for a promising initialization, which avoids the collapse of image-aligned style transformation in the first iteration. Experimental results on two public datasets demonstrate 1) a competitive segmentation performance of our method compared to the fully-supervised method, and 2) a superior performance over other state-of-the-art with an increase of average Dice by up to 4.67%. The source code is available at: https://github.com/JinxLv/One-shot-segmentation-via-IST.

Robust One-shot Segmentation of Brain Tissues via Image-aligned Style Transformation

In many applications we want to influence the decisions of independent agents by designing incentives for their actions. We revisit a fundamental problem in this area, called Game Implementation: Given a game in standard form and a set of desired strategies, can we design a set of payment promises such that, if the players take the payment promises into account, then all undominated strategies are desired? Furthermore, we aim to minimize the cost, that is, the worst-case amount of payments.

We study the tractability of computing such payment promises and determine more closely what obstructions we may have to overcome in doing so. We show that Game Implementation is NP-hard even for two players, solving in particular a long open question (Eidenbenz et al. 2011). This suggests more restrictions are necessary to obtain tractability. We thus study the regime in which players have only a small constant number of strategies and obtain the following. First, this case remains NP-hard even if each player's utility depends only on three others. Second, we repair a flawed efficient algorithm for the case of both small number of strategies and small number of players. Among further results, we characterize sets of desired strategies that can be implemented at zero cost as a kind of stable core of the game.

Game Implementation: What are the Obstructions?

Stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) are crucial for modelling dynamics with randomness in many areas including economics, physics, and atmospheric sciences. Recently, using deep learning approaches to learn the PDE solution for accelerating PDE simulation becomes increasingly popular. However, SPDEs have two unique properties that require new design on the models. First, the model to approximate the solution of SPDE should be generalizable over both initial conditions and the random sampled forcing term. Second, the random forcing terms usually have poor regularity whose statistics may diverge (e.g., the space-time white noise). To deal with the problems, in this work, we design a deep neural network called \emph{Deep Latent Regularity Net} (DLR-Net).  DLR-Net includes a regularity feature block as the main component, which maps the initial condition and the random forcing term to a set of regularity features. The processing of regularity features is inspired by regularity structure theory and the features provably compose a set of basis to represent the SPDE solution. The regularity features are then fed into a small backbone neural operator to get the output. We conduct experiments on various SPDEs including the dynamic $\Phi^4_1$ model and the stochastic 2D Navier-Stokes equation to predict their solutions, and the results demonstrate that the proposed DLR-Net can achieve SOTA accuracy compared with the baselines. Moreover, the inference time is over 20 times faster than the traditional numerical solver and is comparable with the baseline deep learning models.

Deep Latent Regularity Network for Modeling Stochastic Partial Differential Equations

Automatic medical report generation is an essential task in applying artificial intelligence to the medical domain, which can lighten the workloads of doctors and promote clinical automation. The state-of-the-art approaches employ Transformer-based encoder-decoder architectures to align images and reports. However, they do not fully explore the relationships between multi-modal medical data, and generate inaccurate and incoherent reports. To address these issues, this paper proposes a Multi-modal Memory Transformer Network (MMTN) to cope with multi-modal medical data (i.e., medical image, medical terminology knowledge, and medical report text) for generating coherent medical reports. On the one hand, MMTN reduces the occurrence of image-report inconsistencies by designing a unique encoder to associate and memorize the relationship between medical images and terminologies. On the other hand, MMTN learns the contributions of multi-modal features before word prediction, and further enhances the accuracy and consistency of generating medical reports by exploiting the cross-modal complementarity of multi-modal medical data. Extensive experiments on three real datasets show that MMTN achieves significant effectiveness over state-of-the-art approaches on both automatic metrics and human evaluation.

MMTN: Multi-modal Memory Transformer Network for Image-Report Consistent Medical Report Generation

It is imperative to accelerate the training of neural network force field such as Deep Potential, which usually requires thousands of images based on first-principles calculation and a couple of days to generate an accurate potential energy surface. To this end, we propose a novel optimizer named reorganized layer extended Kalman filtering (RLEKF), an optimized version of global extended Kalman filtering (GEKF) with a strategy of splitting big and gathering small layers to overcome the $O(N^2)$ computational cost of GEKF. This strategy provides an approximation of the dense weights error covariance matrix with a sparse diagonal block matrix for GEKF. We implement both RLEKF and the baseline Adam in our $\alpha$Dynamics package and numerical experiments are performed on 13 unbiased datasets. Overall, RLEKF converges faster with slightly better accuracy. For example, a test on a typical system, bulk copper, shows that RLEKF converges faster by both the number of training epochs ($\times$11.67) and wall-clock time ($\times$1.19). Besides, we theoretically prove that the updates of weights converge and thus are against the gradient exploding problem. Experimental results verify that RLEKF is not sensitive to the initialization of weights. The RLEKF sheds light on other AI-for-science applications where training a large neural network (with tons of thousands parameters) is a bottleneck.

RLEKF: An Optimizer for Deep Potential with Ab Initio Accuracy

Air pollution is a crucial issue affecting human health and livelihoods, as well as one of the barriers to economic and social growth. Forecasting air quality has become an increasingly important endeavor with significant social impacts, especially in emerging countries like China. In this paper, we present a novel Transformer architecture termed AirFormer to collectively predict nationwide air quality in China, with an unprecedented fine spatial granularity covering thousands of locations. AirFormer decouples the learning process into two stages -- 1) a bottom-up deterministic stage that contains two new types of self-attention mechanisms to efficiently learn spatio-temporal representations; 2) a top-down stochastic stage with latent variables to capture the intrinsic uncertainty of air quality data. We evaluate AirFormer with 4-year data from 1,085 stations in the Chinese Mainland. Compared to the state-of-the-art model, AirFormer reduces prediction errors by 5%~8% on 72-hour future predictions. Our source code is available at https://github.com/yoshall/airformer.

An Extreme-Adaptive Time Series Prediction Model Based on Probability-Enhanced LSTM Neural Networks

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