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The Conditional Neural Process (CNP) family of models offer a promising direction to tackle few-shot problems by achieving better scalability and competitive predictive performance. However, the current CNP models only capture the overall uncertainty for the prediction made on a target data point. They lack a systematic fine-grained quantification on the distinct sources of uncertainty that are essential for model training and decision-making under the few-shot setting. We propose Evidential Conditional Neural Processes (ECNP), which replace the standard Gaussian distribution used by CNP with a much richer hierarchical Bayesian structure through evidential learning to achieve epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition. The evidential hierarchical structure also leads to a theoretically justified robustness over noisy training tasks. Theoretical analysis on the proposed ECNP establishes the relationship with CNP while offering deeper insights on the roles of the evidential parameters. Extensive experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model in various few-shot settings.

AAAI 2023

Evidential Conditional Neural Processes

conditional neural processes

uncertainty quantification

meta learning

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
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The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

poster

Learning discriminative features for effectively separating abnormal events from normality is crucial for weakly supervised video anomaly detection (WS-VAD) tasks. Existing approaches, both video and segment level label oriented, mainly focus on extracting representations for anomaly data while neglecting the implication of normal data. We observe that such a scheme is sub-optimal, i.e., for better distinguishing anomaly one needs to understand what is a normal state, and may yield a higher false alarm rate. To address this issue, we propose an Uncertainty Regulated Dual Memory Units (UR-DMU) model to learn both the representations of normal data and discriminative features of abnormal data. To be specific, inspired by the traditional global and local structure on graph convolutional networks, we introduce a Global and Local Multi-Head Self Attention (GL-MHSA) module for the Transformer network to obtain more expressive embeddings for capturing associations in videos. Then, we use two memory banks, one additional abnormal memory for tackling hard samples, to store and separate abnormal and normal prototypes and maximize the margins between the two representations. Finally, we propose an uncertainty learning scheme to learn the normal data latent space, that is robust to noise from camera switching, object changing, scene transforming, etc. Extensive experiments on XD-Violence and UCF-Crime datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by a sizable margin.

Dual Memory Units with Uncertainty Regulation for Weakly Supervised Video Anomaly Detection

Streams of irregularly occurring events are commonly modeled as a marked temporal point process. Many real-world datasets such as e-commerce transactions and electronic health records often involve events where multiple event types co-occur, e.g. multiple items purchased or multiple diseases diagnosed simultaneously. In this paper, we tackle multi-label prediction in such a problem setting, and propose a novel Transformer-based Conditional Mixture of Bernoulli Network (TCMBN) that leverages neural density estimation to capture complex temporal dependence as well as probabilistic dependence between concurrent event types. We also propose potentially incorporating domain knowledge in the objective by regularizing the predicted probability. To represent probabilistic dependence of concurrent event types graphically, we design a two-step approach that first learns the mixture of Bernoulli network and then solves a least-squares semi-definite constrained program to numerically approximate the sparse precision matrix from a learned covariance matrix. This approach proves to be effective for event prediction while also providing an interpretable and possibly non-stationary structure for insights into event co-occurrence. We demonstrate the superior performance of our approach compared to existing baselines on multiple synthetic and real benchmarks.

Concurrent Multi-Label Prediction in Event Streams

The co-adaptation of robots has been a long-standing research endeavour with the goal of adapting both body and behaviour of a robot for a given task, inspired by the natural evolution of animals. Co-adaptation has the potential to eliminate costly manual hardware engineering as well as improve the performance of systems.
The standard approach to co-adaptation is to use a reward function for optimizing behaviour and morphology. However, defining and constructing such reward functions is notoriously difficult and often a significant engineering effort.
This paper introduces a new viewpoint on the co-adaptation problem, which we call co-imitation: finding a morphology and a policy that allow an imitator to closely match the behaviour of a demonstrator. To this end we propose a co-imitation methodology for adapting behaviour and morphology by matching state-distributions of the demonstrator. Specifically, we focus on the challenging scenario with mismatched state- and action-spaces between both agents. We find that co-imitation increases behaviour similarity across a variety of tasks and settings, and demonstrate co-imitation by transferring human walking, jogging and kicking skills onto a simulated humanoid.

Co-Imitation: Learning Design and Behaviour by Imitation

Personalized learning is a promising educational approach that aims to provide high-quality personalized services for each student with minimum demands for practice data. The key to achieving that lies in the cognitive diagnosis task, which estimates the cognitive state of the student through his/her logged data of doing practice quizzes. Nevertheless, in the personalized learning scenario, existing cognitive diagnosis models suffer from the inability to (1) quickly adapt to new students using a small amount of data, and (2) measure the reliability of the diagnosis result to avoid improper services that mismatch the student's actual state. In this paper, we propose a general Bayesian mETA-learned Cognitive Diagnosis framework (BETA-CD), which addresses the two challenges by prior knowledge exploitation and model uncertainty quantification, respectively. Specifically, we firstly introduce Bayesian hierarchical modeling to associate each student's cognitive state with a shared prior distribution encoding prior knowledge and a personal posterior distribution indicating model uncertainty. Furthermore, we formulate a meta-learning objective to automatically exploit prior knowledge from historical students, and efficiently solve it with a gradient-based variational inference method. Extensive experiments upon various real-world datasets and models show the effectiveness and generality of the proposed BETA-CD.

BETA-CD: A Bayesian Meta-learned Cognitive Diagnosis Framework for Personalized Learning

Submodular maximization arises in many applications, and has attracted a lot of research attentions from various areas such as artificial intelligence, finance and operations research. Previous studies mainly consider only one kind of constraint, while many real-world problems often involve several constraints. In this paper, we consider the problem of submodular maximization under the intersection of two commonly used constraints, i.e., $k$-matroid constraint and $m$-knapsack constraint, and propose a new algorithm SPROUT by incorporating partial enumeration into the simultaneous greedy framework. We prove that SPROUT can achieve a polynomial-time approximation guarantee better than the state-of-the-art algorithms. Then, we introduce the random enumeration and smooth techniques into SPROUT to improve its efficiency, resulting in the SPROUT++ algorithm, which can keep a similar approximation guarantee. Experiments on the applications of movie recommendation and weighted max-cut demonstrate the superiority of SPROUT++ in practice.

Submodular Maximization Under the Intersection of Matroid and Knapsack Constraints

The Condorcet criterion (CC) is a classical and well-accepted criterion for voting. Unfortunately, it is incompatible with many other desiderata including participation (PAR), half- way monotonicity (HM), Maskin monotonicity (MM), and strategy-proofness (SP). Such incompatibilities are often known as impossibility theorems, and are proved by worst-case analysis. Previous work has investigated the likelihood for these impossibilities to occur under certain models, which are often criticized of being unrealistic.

We strengthen previous work by proving the first set of semi-
random impossibilities for voting rules to satisfy CC and the
more general, group versions of the four desiderata: for any sufficiently large number of voters $n$, any size of the group $1\le B\le \sqrt n$, any voting rule $r$, and under a large class of {\em semi-random} models that include Impartial Culture, the likelihood for $r$ to satisfy CC and PAR, CC and HM, CC
and MM, or CC and SP  is $1-\Omega(\frac{B}{\sqrt n})$. This matches existing lower bounds for CC&PAR ($B=1$) and CC&SP and CC&HM ($B\le \sqrt n$), showing that many commonly-studied voting rules  are already asymptotically optimal in such cases.

Semi-Random Impossibilities of Condorcet Criterion

Two-player zero-sum {\em graph games} are central in logic, verification, and multi-agent systems. The game proceeds by placing a token on a vertex of a graph, and allowing the players to move it to produce an infinite path, which determines the winner or payoff of the game. Traditionally, the players alternate turns in moving the token. In {\em bidding games}, however, the players have budgets and in each turn, an auction (bidding) determines which player moves the token. So far, bidding games have only been studied as full-information games. 
In this work we initiate the study of partial-information bidding games: we study bidding games in which a player's initial budget is drawn from a known probability distribution. 
We show that while for some bidding mechanisms and objectives, it is straightforward to adapt the results from the full-information setting to the partial-information setting, for others, the analysis is significantly more challenging, requires new techniques, and gives rise to interesting results. 
Specifically, we study games with {\em mean-payoff} objectives in combination with {\em poorman} bidding. We construct optimal strategies for a partially-informed player who plays against a fully-informed adversary. We show that, somewhat surprisingly, the {\em value} under pure strategies does not necessarily exist in such games. 

Bidding Graph Games with Partially-Observable Budgets

Traffic forecasting as a canonical task of multivariate time series forecasting has been a significant research topic in AI community. To address the spatio-temporal heterogeneity and non-stationarity implied in the traffic stream, in this study, we propose Spatio-Temporal Meta-Graph Learning as a novel Graph Structure Learning mechanism on spatio-temporal data. Specifically, we implement this idea into Meta-Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (MegaCRN) by plugging the Meta-Graph Learner powered by a Meta-Node Bank into GCRN encoder-decoder. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation on two benchmark datasets (METR-LA and PEMS-BAY) and a new large-scale traffic speed dataset in which traffic incident information is contained. Our model outperformed the state-of-the-arts to a large degree on all three datasets (over 27% MAE and 34% RMSE). Besides, through a series of qualitative evaluations, we demonstrate that our model can explicitly disentangle the road links and time slots with different patterns and be robustly adaptive to any anomalous traffic situations. Codes and datasets are available at https://github.com/deepkashiwa20/MegaCRN.

Spatio-Temporal Meta-Graph Learning for Traffic Forecasting

The popularity of on-demand ride pooling is owing to the benefits offered to customers (lower prices), taxi drivers (higher revenue), environment (lower carbon footprint due to fewer vehicles) and aggregation companies like Uber (higher revenue). To achieve these benefits, two key interlinked challenges have to be solved effectively: (a) pricing -- setting prices to customer requests for taxis; and (b) matching -- assignment of customers (that accepted the prices) to taxis/cars. Traditionally, both these challenges have been studied individually and using myopic approaches (considering only current requests), without considering the impact of current matching on addressing future requests. In this paper, we develop a novel framework that handles the pricing and matching problems together, while also considering the future impact of the pricing and matching decisions. In our experimental results on a real-world taxi dataset, we demonstrate that our framework can significantly improve revenue (up to 17\% and on average 6.4\%) in a sustainable manner by reducing the number of vehicles  (up to 14\% and on average 10.6\%) required to obtain a given fixed revenue and the overall distance travelled by vehicles (up to 11.1\% and on average 3.7\%). That is to say, we are able to provide an ideal win-win scenario for all stakeholders (customers, drivers, aggregator, environment) involved by obtaining higher revenue for customers, drivers, aggregator (ride pooling company) while being good for the environment (due to fewer number of vehicles on the road and lesser fuel consumed).

Evidential Conditional Neural Processes

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