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The Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection of the Italian National Research Council (IRPI CNR) has developed in cooperation with Civil Protection of Sardinia Region, a regional early warning system for the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides (SARF Sardinia), which currently compares the national rainfall thresholds with the rainfall measured by national and regional rain gauge networks and with rainfall forecasts provided by COSMO-I5 and BOLAM models. In the framework of the current Collaboration Agreement between the Sardinia Region and IRPI CNR, a catalogue containing meteorological and hydrogeological information related to rainfall-induced landslides in Sardinia has been compiled. The catalogue lists 261 landslides that occurred in the period 2007-2020. The information includes: (i) event identifier; (ii) rainfall data (name and geographic coordinates of the selected rain gauge, duration, rainfall mean intensity, and cumulated rainfall responsible for triggering); (iii) landslide geographic data (region, province, municipality, location affected by the event, geographic coordinates of the landslide, spatial accuracy of the landslide); (iv) landslide type; (v) landslide temporal data (year, month, day, time, temporal accuracy of the landslide); and (vi) source of data/information. Rainfall series used to reconstruct the landslide triggering conditions include measurements of 186 rain gauges from a Regional Agency network (SASI), 186 additional stations provided by the Environmental Protection Agency of the Region of Sardinia (ARPAS) and the former Hydrological Service (ExSI), and 96 rain gauges from the National Department for Civil Protection network. Information on rainfall-induced landslides comes from digital and printed newspapers, blogs, technical documents, landslide event reports, and fire fighter reports. The information in the catalogue is used to define regional rainfall thresholds to be implemented in the SARF Sardinia. Thresholds are defined using the frequentist method, which allows the calculation of cumulated event rainfall–rainfall duration (ED) threshold curves corresponding to different non-exceedance probability levels and including uncertainty in the parameters that define the thresholds. Currently, the Civil Protection of Sardinia Region is using the implemented system to support decisions in order to issue warning advices.

SGI 2021

Rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning system in Sardinia

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technical paper

The north-eastern sector of the Calabrian Arc includes the Sila Massif, Sibari plain and part of the Taranto gulf. It is a geologically complex area crossed by a system of active faults since the Middle Pleistocene that makes Calabria one of the regions with the highest seismic hazard in the Mediterranean. These faults are responsible for the morphology of the territory, characterized by high relieves and widespread landslides on a large scale, and they generated strong earthquakes in the past centuries. A first fault system is characterized by normal high-angle faults with a N-S direction which displaces the Sila batolith. Continuing towards the northern part of the area, NW-SE trending normal faults displace the Plio-Quaternary sediments. In the Corigliano-Rossano area, the Rossano Fault is the most important. It is a WNW-ESE neogenic tectonic structure characterized by a left normal-transcurrent kinematics and extending for about 12 Km with an en-èchelon arrangement. It puts the Sila Batolith in contact with Tortonian and Plio-Quaternary sediments and is responsible for the catastrophic earthquake of 1836. In this work we focused on a wide area comprised between 39.2°-39.9° N and 16.2°-17.4° E degrees, making a revision of the recent earthquakes occurred in it. We collected all focal mechanisms available in published papers and analyzing with great detail the seismicity of the last 15 years. During the last century only small to medium size earthquakes occurred in the area, both on land and offshore. The seismic catalog includes hundreds of earthquakes of magnitude M<5 recorded during the last few decades. This seismicity appears widespread through the area of our study, with depth in the range from 5 km to 40 km below sea level. Swarms of small events (M<4) are quite common in this seismogenetic area. The increased number of seismic stations available during the last decade allowed for detailed analysis of the local earthquakes. We performed a location as accurate as possible of recent earthquakes, including those occurred along the coast and offshore, and computed the focal mechanism of as many events as possible. To estimate the source kinematics of small earthquakes we applied the software FOCMEC (Snoke, 2003), based on the polarity of body waves, and the software HybridMT (Kwiatek et al., 2016), based on the area below the first P wave pulse. We obtained reliable results for more than 30 earthquakes occurred during the last 15 years (2.5 <= M <= 4.4). Results show a variety of solutions, with predominance of transtensive and reverse kinematics. The location and kinematics of recent earthquakes are in good agreement with the known faults, showing a significant correlation between the computed focal mechanisms and the direction of the tectonic structures. The source analysis of recent seismicity gives interesting insight about the offshore faults.

Seismotectonic analysis of the north-east sector of Calabrian Arc

The topic of my work is a seismic tomography which has as object the investigation of Southern Tyrrhenian. This tomography was obtained by means of inversion of teleseismic data and an iterative computation of them to obtain the so-called residual that is the difference between the observed travel times and these theoretical travel times. The final tridimensional velocity model corresponds to that having the minimum residual. The entire process of operation of a seismic tomography is very relevant in order to investigate subduction zones. This is the case of the Southern Tyrrhenian oceanic back-arc basin. The subducting lithosphere has been mostly consumed along the Tyrrhenian-Apennine system has been consumed with the exception of the Calabrian arc sector. The new seismic tomography, which derived from the inversion of travel times of teleseismic ray paths, travelling in the upper mantle at high depths. The adopted database consists of 1929 teleseisms  recorded in period 1990-2012 by 122 southern Italian seismic station directly connected to ISC (International Seismological Centre). The software FMTT was employed for the inversion of these arrival times. I have made 10 horizontal sections of final model from 50 km of depth to 500 km of depth, with an interval of 50 km of depth from each other. I have made 8 vertical sections and 3 transversal sections, choosing as traces the same illustrated by Montuori (2007), for her teleseismic tomography of Southern Tyrrhenian. This work, together with contributions of Chiarabba (2008) and Calò (2012). Summarising, the horizontal sections show an evolution of the high velocity body that represents the Ionian slab. At depth of 250 km, the tomography evidences a sort of “transition” due to the absence of the Southern Tyrrhenian HVA and the occurrence of a low velocity region with maximum of -0.5 km/s scattered between the Aeolian Islands and Calabria. This low velocity region practically splits the Tyrrhenian slab into two parts, in Neapolitan region and in the southern Calabria-northern Sicily region. The presence of this “window slab” could be interpreted as a tear in which unperturbed mantle insert itself.

Seismic Tomography of Southern Tyrrhenian by means of teleseismic data

Tsunami deposits are the main evidence of past tsunami wave inundations but are inherently difficult to identify in coastal sediment sequences. The complexity of the process and the multiple interactions with the ground generate a plethora of sedimentary features such as layers of sand and gravel that were typically interpreted in the past as marine transgression events or as storm surges of extraordinary magnitude. Only in the eighties, seminal works highlighted some specific features that allow identification of their origin. Among the variety of triggering mechanisms, ﻿landslides occurring on steeply sloped coastal areas, coastal volcanoes or volcanic islands, have been shown to produce devastating tsunamis. Surprisingly, there are only a few clear examples worldwide of the relationship between volcanic activity and landslides. Based on radiocarbon ages, on stratigraphic, volcanological and archaeological evidence, three well-preserved medieval tsunami deposits were recently discovered along the coast of Stromboli volcano (Aeolian Islands, southern Italy) as shown by Rosi et al. (2019), who suggested that the destructive power of one of these events is also possibly related to a huge marine storm that devastated the port of Naples in 1343 (200 km north of Stromboli). The sedimentological study of the deposits has allowed a detailed characterization of the tsunami sequences intercalated with volcaniclastic deposits and primary tephra and allowed reconstruction of the likely sequence of the volcanic events (Pistolesi et al., 2020). In one case, a violent explosion possibly preceded the tsunami, whereas in the youngest event, the lateral collapse of the volcano flank triggered a tsunami wave that was rapidly followed by sustained explosive magmatic activity and ensuing prolonged ash venting. The hypothesized tsunami-triggering dynamics suggests a close link between volcanic activity and flank collapse, further confirming that the persistent activity at Stromboli makes the volcano particularly susceptible to tsunami generation, confirming the hazard of these phenomena at a regional scale. New stratigraphic trenches carried out in late 2020 also revealed that deeper, older tsunami deposits may be present, suggesting that tsunami and tephra deposits have recorded interactions between past eruptive activity and landslides at Stromboli volcano even further back in the past.

Eruptive activity and tsunamigenic landslides at Stromboli volcano (Italy): clues from deposits and future perspectives

2 does change owing to the volcanic degassing. Although the flux and gas composition allowed tracking the fumarolic-solfataric degassing, the emissions of carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide caused gas hazards. The isotopic signature allows distinguishing among various CO2 (i.e., volcanic, air, and exhaust gas derived from the burning of fossil fuel). Therefore, the stable isotopes in CO2 can help to identify the dominant gas sources at district scale based on mobile surveying, and tracking the volcanic gas hazard at Vulcano. Anomalous soil CO2 emissions were found near Faraglione settlements in addition to Palizzi, which is far enough the inhabited zone. Significant changes occurred in the CO2 degassing from these zones, because of the volcanic gas addition. This study shows the results of the survey aimed to identify four sites suitable for deployment of a monitoring system of the gas hazard at Faraglione. The survey was performed in summer 2020 and enabled collecting stable isotope composition measurements of the air CO2 and CO2 concentration indoor. The investigation targeted several types of environments including outdoor sites for a direct comparison with the indoor environment. Both the 13C/12C and 18O/16O of the air CO2 were determined by using a laser-based isotope mass spectrophotometer. A four-wheel car hosted the instrument, enabling isotopic measurements at 1 Hz, and meter-size spatial resolution. During the indoor survey, an infrared spectrophotometer enabled the air CO2 concentration measurements in the range of 0 - 10% vol. At least four measurements were performed at each site, with 2 minutes sampling frequency. The results allowed evaluating the CO2 concentration patterns in a time window (i.e., 10 minutes) comparable with the Permissible Exposure Limit (PEL). The results show that indoor air CO2 concentration was above the current average air CO2 concentration (415 ppm vol) in several selected sites. Multiple sources of gases contributed to the CO2 level in the various sites as shown by the isotope signature of the air CO2. In a few specific sites, the air CO2 concentration achieved 6% vol after a few minutes of measurement, owing to the combination of high soil CO2 emissions and reduced air circulation. This value is higher than the Immediately Dangerous to Life and Health exposure limit (IDLH = 4% vol).  The results of this study show that gas hazard mitigation includes several actions in the settled zones of Vulcano Porto. The soil CO2 flux and the air CO2 monitoring (i.e., concentration and stable isotope composition) are compelling actions to decrease the volcanic risk.

Design and implementation of the gas hazard early warning system at Vulcano - Aeolian Islands

In the past, volcanic hazard assessment was typically based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, using a specific combination for the values of the parameters related to the eruptive size and intensity to represent a particular eruptive size class. Recently, in modelling tephra load hazard, the natural variability in terms of eruptive size and intensity, vent position and meteorological conditions, has been taken into account (e.g., Sandri et al., 2016; Selva et al., 2018). Here, we adopted a probabilistic methodology for a novel long-term volcanic hazard analysis which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variability, to quantify tephra load hazard in Southern Italy, from Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, on a regional target domain (ca. 600km x 600km, covering Campania, Basilicata, Apulia, Calabria, Sicily) at a 3-km resolution. Numerical simulations were performed by FALL3D model (Folch et al., 2020) in which the values for the eruption parameters are sampled within plausible ranges for given vents and size classes (Small, Medium, Large). Wind profiles have been collected from the ECMWF ERA5 from 1991 to 2020, with a spatial resolution of 0.03° x 0.03°. The results of this tephra fallout hazard scheme provided absolute hazard curves showing how the tephra load exceedance probability varies on the target domain, in 50 years. The results achieved are perfectly similar, in format. To those commonly achieved with the classic approach for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, and perfectly compatible with fragility analysis in order to compute and rank the associated tephra load risk with the seismic and other natural risks whose hazards are calculated in the same way. Moreover, the proposed method can be extended to larger temporal intervals to quantify the volcanic hazard due to less frequent events that are relevant for the risk quantification on critical infrastructures.

Assessing long-term tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes on Southern Italy  

Volcanic ash is the result of extensive magma fragmentation during eruptions. It depends upon a combination of magma properties (rheology, vesicularity, permeability, gas overpressure) and the possible involvement of external fluids during magma ascent. However, fragmentation processes during the ash-dominated, low-to-mid intensity eruptions are still a matter of debate. Combination of morpho-textural data of the erupted ash with geophysical data on the activity can inform about the energy of the activity as well as on the mechanisms of ash production and dispersal. The phase of heavy ash emission occurred during March 2016 at Copahue volcano (Argentina) generated a very low infrasonic amplitude, corresponding to low exit velocity and low magma overpressure. The apparent unbalance between measured geophysical parameters and the intensity of the activity raises a number of questions concerning the links among acoustic pressure, gas overpressure and efficiency of magma fragmentation. Generally, magma-water interaction is supposed to be the main process of magma fragmentation at Copahue. Conversely, our data on ash texture indicate that a process of magma volatile exsolution under low overpressures actively controlled the fragmentation during the investigated eruptive stage. Ash componentry also revealed that a large fraction of deposit consisted of recycled material. Therefore, comparing these results with geophysical information, we interpreted the activity as influenced by a process of energy buffering, operated by the passage of the erupting mixture through a thick layer of granular, ash-bearing crater infilling produced by the ash recycling processes. The importance of this abundant hot, vent-hosted material for the convective stability of the eruptive plume and for the ash dispersal was highlighted, with direct consequences for the assessment of the related hazard and management of eruptive crises,

Mechanisms of ash production and recycling during low-energy, mid-intensity eruptions at Copahue volcano (Argentina)

New generations of Earth Observation (EO) satellites, such as the Copernicus Sentinel missions, are now providing freely available imagery with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions on a global scale. Importantly, the diversity of sensors on-board the spacecrafts provide the potential for a comprehensive monitoring of volcanic unrest. In particular, the synergetic use of radar (Sentinel-1 SAR), short-wave infrared (Sentinel-2 MSI) and ultraviolet (Sentinel-5P TROPOMI) payloads, are particularly promising for surveillance of surface deformation and topographic changes, emplacement of volcanic deposits, detection of thermal anomalies, and emission of volcanic SO2. MOUNTS (Monitoring Unrest from Space, www.mounts-project.com) is a monitoring system which intends to demonstrate the potential of such an integrated interdisciplinary approach, where systematic processing and visualization of EO products can support both scientific and operational communities for volcanic risk assessment and management. This presentation will present a number of recent volcanic crisis captured by MOUNTS, and thereby illustrate how a variety of hazards can be detected and monitored from space.

Volcanic hazard monitoring from space using MOUNTS

The European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODnet) is a network of organizations supported by the EU’s integrated maritime policy. These organizations work together to observe the sea, process the data according to international standards and make that information freely available as interoperable data layers and data products (accessible from www.emodnet.eu). It is subdivided into Lots concerning Bathymetry, Geology, Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Seabed Habitats and Human activities. The Geology Lot (www.emodnet-geology.eu) is carried out by a consortium of Geological Surveys and includes data on seafloor sediments grainsize, sedimentation rates, Quaternary geology, pre‐Quaternary geology and stratigraphy, coastal behaviour, geological events, mineral resources, submerged landscapes. Datasets available from the “Geological events and probabilities” layers, coordinated by the Geological Survey of Italy – ISPRA, include submarine landslides, earthquakes, volcanic centers, tsunamis, fluid emissions and Quaternary faults. Data gathered by Partners have been conveyed into single Europe-wide shapefiles, complemented by detailed attribute tables. Mud-volcanoes and fluid emissions of non-volcanic origin have been initially considered separately from volcanic emission, in order to prevent overlaps and confusion, because terms adopted to describe morphological types of mud-volcanoes, especially in the Black Sea, are the same used for magmatic structures. However, during later phases of the project, with increasing resolution and scale of representation, all types of fluid emissions have been gathered together in the same layer. The major component of volcanic fluid emissions is CO2, while the major component of non-volcanic fluid emissions is methane. These latter have been characterized by type, height, region, composition, morphological and activity types, age of activity. Part of the Italian results has been collected into monographs published by the Geological Survey of Italy, one dedicated to a systematic inventory of submerged volcanic structures (D’Angelo et al., 2019) and one collating contributions on occurrences of fluid emissions (D’Angelo et al., 2020) which is presented in the workshop on september 13th. In the volume dedicated to volcanoes, hydrothermal occurrences are reported wherever information is available. A specific focus is dedicated to mineral deposits associated with fluid emissions in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea and highlights the widespread occurrence of sulfate and sulfide minerals in the surroundings of volcanic structures.

Volcanic and non-volcanic fluid emissions: data from EMODnet Geology

Sediment cores and boreholes, high-resolution sub-bottom and multi-channel seismic reflection profiles allowed to study origin and recurrence of mass-transport deposits (MTDs) emplaced along the eastern slope of the Gela Basin in the Strait of Sicily. 27 stacked MTDs were mapped with volumes between < 1 km3 and 630 km3 and related to the different phases of margin evolution since the Pliocene. Sedimentary prograding wedges, fed from the north, developed from the late Pliocene and extended eastward. In the Pleistocene, progradation extended to the southern basin with oblique shelf-edge clinothems (Gauchery et al., 2021a). From the Pliocene to the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT, 0.8 Ma), the sediment wedge increased in thickness by 150 m/Myr, afterwards the margin developed an aggradational motif, with sediment rates of 900 m/Myr (Gauchery et al., 2021a). The MPT represented not only a drastic change in margin outbuilding, but also in the volume of submarine landslides, with large tectonic-related MTDs replaced by smaller contourite- and clinothem-related MTDs due to faster bottom currents and increased sedimentation rates. Contourite deposits formed in the Pliocene but grew significantly during MIS 5 and late MIS 2 (Gauchery et al., 2021a). The presence of erosional surfaces downcutting the contourite deposits favoured the emplacement of the South Gela Basin Slide (SGBS) around 17 kyr cal. BP (Gauchery et al., 2021b). Slope stability analysis indicates that even strong seismic shaking (Mw = 6.5) at the offshore continuation of the Scicli-Ragusa fault line, located < 10 km from the SGBS, was insufficient to mobilized it (Zaniboni et al., 2021). SGBS was promoted by high sedimentation rates (up to 1300 cm kyr-1) during the last phase of LGM and early phase of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), driven by a combination of inner-mid shelf sediment input, lateral advection by strong Levantine bottom-current and an abrupt and brief intensification of the surface water speed. During the post-glacial sea-level rise pulses, salinity changes at the interface between surface and intermediate waters lead to enhanced bottom-current erosion and margin instability along the outer shelf and upper slope.

Submarine landslides in the Strait of Sicily: relation with tectonics and climate forcing, contourite deposits and high sedimentation rates, post-LGM sea-level fluctuations

In the last decade many studies have focussed on small-scale (≤1 km3 ) submarine landslide, since they are more frequent with respect to the larger ones and pose a potential threat for the coastal strip and infrastructures. The potential geohazard of a marine landslide is also related to the timing of the event and therefore is of paramount importance to define, as far as possible, its age. This study deals with the Taranto Landslide, an impressive landslide located 12 km off the coast, in the northeastern sector of the Gulf of Taranto, on the southwest-facing Apulian Continental Slope, with the aim to learn more on its geohazard potential. The dataset used in this study consists of multibeam echo sounder (MBES) data and high resolution Chirp Sonar profiles, dip- and strike-oriented which has served to define the morphometric parameters of the landslide and the thickness of the post slide sediment drape. The failure occurred across a slope gradient ranging between 3° and 4°. The evacuated scar surface extends from 400 m below sea level (mbsl) down to 1000 m deep and is bounded by a well-defined headscarp, up to 75 m high, and by two subparallel lateral scarps 4-6 km away from each other. The total inferred volume of the landslide was derived by the scar dimensions and resulted as being about 0,3 km3 (Meo et al., 2018). The slump exhibits a simple geometry, with a single arcuate headscarp and no evidence of retrogressive failure process - such as multiple scars merging or upslope modifications in the form of stepped profiles of the basal evacuation surface – was observed. Besides, the scar surface depicts a sub-parallel profile to the adjacent undisturbed slope, suggesting a single slope-parallel plane of failure along which the sediment and the cohesive blocks glided towards the base of the slope. Therefore a single failure event was inferred to the Taranto landslide.

The Taranto Landslide (North Ionian Sea): further morphological and stratigraphical observations and timing of the event by indirect stratigraphic evidences

Rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning system in Sardinia

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Rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning system in Sardinia

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Seismotectonic analysis of the north-east sector of Calabrian Arc

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A multi-isotope (O, H, B, Sr) approach for identifying salinity contamination along the coastal sector of Murgia aquifer (Apulia, Southern Italy)

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