United States

We consider Bayesian inference problems where the likelihood function is either expensive to evaluate or only available via noisy estimates. This setting encompasses application scenarios involving, for example, large datasets or models whose likelihood evaluations require expensive simulations. We formulate this problem within a Bayesian optimisation framework over a space of probability distributions and derive an upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithm to propose non-parametric distribution candidates. The algorithm is designed to minimise regret, which is defined as the Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to the true posterior in this case. Equipped with a Gaussian process surrogate model, we show that the resulting UCB algorithm achieves asymptotically no regret. The method can be easily implemented as a batch Bayesian optimisation algorithm whose point evaluations are selected via Markov chain Monte Carlo. Experimental results demonstrate the method&#39;s performance on inference problems.

UAI 2021

No-Regret Approximate Inference via Bayesian Optimisation

bayesian optimisation

kernel methods

approximate inference

gaussian processes

Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific is partnering with AFCEA San Diego chapter to host the workshop.

The NAML workshop is an opportunity for researchers from Navy research and development centers and our partner organizations to exchange technical ideas and to come together as a team.

The goals of NAML are:

* To spread awareness of current machine learning research relevant to Naval applications

* To connect machine learning researchers with experts in military requirements

* To build and strengthen collaborations within the defense research community

**Watch this video to hear about the AFCEA purpose.**

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NAML 2021

We consider Bayesian inference problems where the likelihood function is either expensive to evaluate or only available via noisy estimates. This setting encompasses application scenarios involving, for example, large datasets or models whose likelihood evaluations require expensive simulations. We formulate this problem within a Bayesian optimisation framework over a space of probability distributions and derive an upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithm to propose non-parametric distribution candidates. The algorithm is designed to minimise regret, which is defined as the Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to the true posterior in this case. Equipped with a Gaussian process surrogate model, we show that the resulting UCB algorithm achieves asymptotically no regret. The method can be easily implemented as a batch Bayesian optimisation algorithm whose point evaluations are selected via Markov chain Monte Carlo. Experimental results demonstrate the method's performance on inference problems.

lightning talk

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

The 37th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2021) is held fully online. We have an exciting program consisting of keynote talks by [Susan Murphy](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=A), [Eric Horvitz](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=B), [Lenka Zdeborová](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=C), [Judea Pearl](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=D) and [Ankur Moitra](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=E), a town hall meeting, peer-reviewed papers, and three workshops. The main conference is single-track and each paper is show-cased with a live component (either a live discussion and Q&A, or a live lightning talk). All papers are also featured in video presentations and in poster sessions in gather.town. The three parallel workshops on Friday allow for smaller meetings on current topics.

The walkthrough video below shows how you can navigate this site and use the different possibilities for interaction: UAIsland2021 on gather.town for posters and social interactions, the mementor platform for virtual mentoring sessions, and the chat and Q&A systems for discussions about talks and posters.

Have a great UAI 2021! 
<br>
<br>Cassio de Campos and Marloes Maathuis
<br>UAI 2021 Program Chairs
<br>uai2021programchairs@gmail.com

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A ticket is required to access this conference. Please use the provided link to register for the event.

https://auai.org/uai2021/registration

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

In the financial realm, profit generation greatly relies on the complicated task of stock prediction. Lately, neural methods have shown success in exploiting stock affecting signals from textual data across news and tweets to forecast stock performance. However, the dynamic, stochastic, and variably influential nature of text and prices makes it difficult to train neural stock trading models, limiting predictive performance and profits. To transcend this limitation, we propose a novel multi-modal curriculum learning approach: FinCLASS, which evaluates stock affecting signals via entropy-based heuristics and measures their linguistic and price-based complexities in a time-aware, hierarchical fashion. We show that training financial models can benefit by exposing neural networks to easier examples of stock affecting signals early during the training phase, before introducing samples having more complex linguistic and price-based temporal variations. Through experiments on benchmark English tweets and Chinese financial news spanning two major indexes and four global markets, we show how FinCLASS outperforms state-of-the-art across financial tasks of stock movement prediction, volatility regression, and profit generation. Through ablative and qualitative experiments, we set the case for FinCLASS as a generalizable framework for developing natural language-centric neural models for financial tasks.

Modeling Financial Uncertainty with Multivariate Temporal Entropy-based Curriculums

Variational Inference (VI) is a popular alternative to asymptotically exact sampling in Bayesian inference. Its main workhorse is optimization over a reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence (RKL), which typically underestimates the tail of the posterior leading to miscalibration and potential degeneracy. Importance sampling (IS), on the other hand, is often used to fine-tune and de-bias the estimates of approximate Bayesian inference procedures. The quality of IS crucially depends on the choice of the proposal distribution. Ideally, the proposal distribution has heavier tails than the target, which is rarely achievable by minimizing the RKL. We thus propose a novel combination of optimization and sampling techniques for approximate Bayesian inference by constructing an IS proposal distribution through the minimization of a forward KL (FKL) divergence. This approach guarantees asymptotic consistency and a fast convergence towards both the optimal IS estimator and the optimal variational approximation. We empirically demonstrate on real data that our method is competitive with variational boosting and MCMC.

Variational Refinement for Importance Sampling Using the Forward Kullback-Leibler Divergence

Creating representations of shapes that are invariant to isometric or almost-isometric transformations has long been an area of interest in shape analysis, since enforcing invariance allows the learning of more effective and robust shape representations. Most existing invariant shape representations are handcrafted, and previous work on learning shape representations do not focus on producing invariant representations. To solve the problem of learning unsupervised invariant shape representations, we use contrastive learning, which produces discriminative representations through learning invariance to user-specified data augmentations. To produce representations that are specifically isometry and almost-isometry invariant, we propose new data augmentations that randomly sample these transformations. We show experimentally that our method outperforms previous unsupervised learning approaches in both effectiveness and robustness.

Staying in Shape: Learning Invariant Shape Representations using ContrastiveLearning

Online imitation learning (IL) is an algorithmic framework that leverages interactions with expert policies for efficient policy optimization. Here policies are optimized by performing online learning on a sequence of loss functions that encourage the learner to mimic expert actions, and if the online learning has no regret, the agent can provably learn an expert-like policy. Online IL has demonstrated empirical successes in many applications and interestingly, its policy improvement speed observed in practice is usually much faster than existing theory suggests. In this work, we provide an explanation of this phenomenon. Let $\xi$ denote the policy class bias and assume the online IL loss functions are convex, smooth, and non-negative. We prove that, after $N$ rounds of online IL with stochastic feedback, the policy improves in $\tilde{O}(1/N + \sqrt{\xi/N})$ in both expectation and high probability. In other words, we show that adopting a sufficiently expressive policy class in online IL has two benefits: both the policy improvement speed increases and the performance bias decreases.

Explaining Fast Improvement in Online Imitation Learning

Resource allocation for coverage of geographical spaces is a challenging problem in robotics, sensor networks and security domains. Conventional solution approaches either: (a) rely on exploiting spatio-temporal structure of specific coverage problems, or (b) use genetic algorithms when targeting general coverage problems where no special exploitable structure exists. In this work, we propose the coverage gradient theorem, which provides a gradient estimator for a broad class of spatial coverage objectives using a combination of Newton-Leibniz theorem and implicit boundary differentiation. We also propose a tractable framework to approximate the coverage objectives and their gradients using spatial discretization and empirically demonstrate the efficacy of our framework on multi-resource spatial coverage problems.

Gradient-based Optimization for Multi-resource Spatial Coverage Problems

In this paper, we consider constrained optimization problems subject to a convex set C. Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a simple and popular stochastic optimization algorithm that has been the workhorse of machine learning for many years. We show a new and surprising fact about SGD, in that depending on the constraint set C, one can operate SGD with much lower-dimensional stochastic gradients without affecting its performance. In particular, we design an optimization algorithm that operates with the lower-dimensional (compressed) stochastic gradients, and establish that with the right set of parameters it has the exact same dimension-free convergence guarantees as that of regular SGD for popular convex and nonconvex optimization settings. We also present two applications of these bounds, one for improving the empirical risk minimization bounds in differentially private nonconvex optimization, and other for reducing communication costs with distributed SGD. Additionally, we also show that this connection between constraint set structure and gradient compression also extends beyond SGD to the conditional gradient (Frank-Wolfe) method. The geometry of the constraint set, captured by its Gaussian width, plays an important role in all our results.

E5 SGD with Low-Dimensional Gradients with Applications to Private and Distributed Learning

Many common machine learning methods involve the geometric annealing path, a sequence of intermediate densities between two distributions of interest constructed using the geometric average. While alternatives such as the moment-averaging path have demonstrated performance gains in some settings, their practical applicability remains limited by exponential family endpoint assumptions and a lack of closed form energy function. In this work, we introduce $q$-paths, a family of paths which is derived from a generalized notion of the mean, includes the geometric and arithmetic mixtures as special cases, and admits a simple closed form involving the deformed logarithm function from nonextensive thermodynamics.

Generalizing the Geometric Annealing Path using Power Means

An important achievement in the field of causal inference was a complete characterization of when a causal effect, in a system modeled by a causal graph, can be determined uniquely from purely observational data. The identification algorithms resulting from this work produce exact symbolic expressions for causal effects, in terms of the observational probabilities. More recent work has looked at the numerical properties of these expressions, in particular using the classical notion of the condition number. In its classical interpretation, the condition number quantifies the sensitivity of the output values of the expressions to small numerical perturbations in the input observational probabilities. In the context of causal identification, the condition number has also been shown to be related to the effect of certain kinds of uncertainties in the structure of the causal graphical model.

Condition Number Bounds for Causal Inference

Unsupervised multi-object scene decomposition is a fast-emerging problem in representation learning. Despite significant progress in static scenes, such models are unable to leverage important dynamic cues present in videos. We propose PROVIDE, a novel unsupervised framework for PRObabilistic VIdeo DEcomposition based on a temporal extension of iterative inference. PROVIDE is powerful enough to jointly model complex individual multi-object representations and explicit temporal dependencies between latent variables across frames. This is achieved by leveraging 2D-LSTM, temporally conditioned inference and generation within the iterative amortized inference for posterior refinement. Our method improves the overall quality of decompositions, encodes information about the objects' dynamics, and can be used to predict trajectories of each object separately. Additionally, we show that our model has a high accuracy even without color information. We demonstrate the decomposition capabilities of our model and show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art on several benchmark datasets, one of which was curated for this work and will be made publicly available.

PROVIDE: A Probabilistic Framework for Unsupervised Video Decomposition

Conditional independence (CI) is a fundamental concept with wide applications in machine learning and causal inference. Although the problems of testing CI and estimating divergences have been extensively studied, the complementary problem of generating data that satisfies CI has received much less attention. Given samples from an input data distribution, we formulate the problem of generating samples from a distribution that is close to the input distribution and satisfies CI. We establish a general characterization of CI in terms of a divergence identity that holds for a large class of divergences satisfying separability and strict convexity properties. Based on the Jensen-Shannon version of this identity, an architecture is proposed that leverages the capabilities of generative adversarial networks (GANs) to enforce CI in an end-to-end differentiable manner. As one illustration of the problem formulation and architecture, we consider applications to notions of fairness that can be written as enforcing CIs. We demonstrate the generation of data to trade off adherence to fairness criteria against classification accuracy.

No-Regret Approximate Inference via Bayesian Optimisation

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Modeling Financial Uncertainty with Multivariate Temporal Entropy-based Curriculums

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