United States

Subseasonal climate forecasting is the task of predicting climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, in a two-week to two-month time horizon. The primary predictors for such prediction problem are spatio-temporal satellite and ground measurements of a variety of climate variables in the atmosphere, ocean, and land, which however have rather limited predictive signal at the subseasonal time horizon. We propose a carefully constructed spatial hierarchical Bayesian regression model that makes use of the inherent spatial structure of the subseasonal climate prediction task. We use our Bayesian model to then derive decision-theoretically optimal point estimates with respect to various performance measures of interest to climate science. As we show, our approach handily improves on various off-the-shelf ML baselines. Since our method is based on a Bayesian framework, we are also able to quantify the uncertainty in our predictions, which is particularly crucial for difficult tasks such as the subseasonal prediction, where we expect any model to have considerable uncertainty at different test locations under different scenarios.

UAI 2021

Subseasonal Climate Prediction in the Western US using Bayesian Spatial Models

spatial statistics

bayesian regression

subseasonal climate forecasting

**BRACIS** originated from the combination of the two most important scientific events in Brazil in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Computational Intelligence (CI): the Brazilian Symposium on Artificial Intelligence – **SBIA** (22 editions), and the Brazilian Symposium on Neural Networks – **SBRN** (13 editions). <br>**ENIAC** is a national forum for researchers, practitioners, educators and students to present and discuss innovations, trends, experiences, developments and work in progress in the fields of Artificial and Computational Intelligence. <br>**STIL** is the bi-annual Language Technology event.
All events are supported by the Brazilian Computer Society – Special Interest Groups: **CE-IA**, **CE-IC** and **CE-PLN**.<br><br><br>

To access the 10th Brazilian Conference on Intelligent Systems (**BRACIS**), you need to register for the conference.  Please visit the Conference official site to register

[Register now](http://c4ai.inova.usp.br/bracis2021/)

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BRACIS 2021

Organized by C4AI, the 10th Brazilian Conference on Intelligent Systems (BRACIS) will take place from November 29th to December 3rd, 2021.

lightning talk

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

The 37th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2021) is held fully online. We have an exciting program consisting of keynote talks by [Susan Murphy](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=A), [Eric Horvitz](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=B), [Lenka Zdeborová](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=C), [Judea Pearl](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=D) and [Ankur Moitra](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=E), a town hall meeting, peer-reviewed papers, and three workshops. The main conference is single-track and each paper is show-cased with a live component (either a live discussion and Q&A, or a live lightning talk). All papers are also featured in video presentations and in poster sessions in gather.town. The three parallel workshops on Friday allow for smaller meetings on current topics.

The walkthrough video below shows how you can navigate this site and use the different possibilities for interaction: UAIsland2021 on gather.town for posters and social interactions, the mementor platform for virtual mentoring sessions, and the chat and Q&A systems for discussions about talks and posters.

Have a great UAI 2021! 
<br>
<br>Cassio de Campos and Marloes Maathuis
<br>UAI 2021 Program Chairs
<br>uai2021programchairs@gmail.com

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A ticket is required to access this conference. Please use the provided link to register for the event.

https://auai.org/uai2021/registration

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

We place an Indian Buffet process (IBP) prior over the structure of a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), thus allowing the complexity of the BNN to increase and decrease automatically. We further extend this model such that the prior on the structure of each hidden layer is shared globally across all layers, using a Hierarchical-IBP (H-IBP). We apply this model to the problem of resource allocation in Continual Learning (CL) where new tasks occur and the network requires extra resources. Our model uses online variational inference with reparameterisation of the Bernoulli and Beta distributions, which constitute the IBP and H-IBP priors. As we automatically learn the number of weights in each layer of the BNN, overfitting and underfitting problems are largely overcome. We show empirically that our approach offers a competitive edge over existing methods in CL.

Hierarchical Indian Buffet Neural Networks for Bayesian Continual Learning

The susceptibility of deep neural networks to untrustworthy predictions, including out-of-distribution (OOD) data and adversarial examples, still prevent their widespread use in safety-critical applications. Most existing methods either require a retraining of a given model to achieve robust identification of adversarial attacks or are limited to out-of-distribution sample detection only. In this work, we propose a geometric gradient analysis (GGA) to improve the identification of untrustworthy predictions without retraining of a given model. GGA analyzes the geometry of the loss landscape of neural networks based on the saliency maps of their respective input. We observe considerable differences between the input gradient geometry of trustworthy and untrustworthy predictions. Using these differences, GGA outperforms prior approaches in detecting OOD data and adversarial attacks, including state-of-the-art and adaptive attacks. Code is available at: https://github.com/mad-lab-fau/GGA-Identifying-Untrustworthy-Predictions

Identifying Untrustworthy Predictions in Neural Networks by Geometric Gradient Analysis

The goal of fairness in classification is to learn a classifier that does not discriminate against groups of individuals based on sensitive attributes, such as race and gender. One approach to designing fair algorithms is to use relaxations of fairness notions as regularization terms or in a constrained optimization problem. We observe that the hyperbolic tangent function can approximate the indicator function. We leverage this property to define a differentiable relaxation that approximates fairness notions provably better than existing relaxations. In addition, we propose a model-agnostic multi-objective architecture that can simultaneously optimize for multiple fairness notions and multiple sensitive attributes and supports all statistical parity-based notions of fairness. We use our relaxation with the multi-objective architecture to learn fair classifiers. Experiments on public datasets show that our method suffers a significantly lower loss of accuracy than current debiasing algorithms relative to the unconstrained model.

Addressing Fairness in Classification with a Model-Agnostic Multi-ObjectiveAlgorithm

Given the pressing need for assuring algorithmic transparency, Explainable AI (XAI) has emerged as one of the key areas of AI research. In this paper, we develop a novel Bayesian extension to the LIME framework, one of the most widely used approaches in XAI -- which we call BayLIME. Compared to LIME, BayLIME exploits prior knowledge and Bayesian reasoning to improve both the consistency in repeated explanations of a single prediction and the robustness to kernel settings. BayLIME also exhibits better explanation fidelity than the state-of-the-art (LIME, SHAP and GradCAM) by its ability to integrate prior knowledge from, e.g., a variety of other XAI techniques, as well as verification and validation (V\&V) methods. We demonstrate the desirable properties of BayLIME through both theoretical analysis and extensive experiments.

Bayesian Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations

Necessity and sufficiency are the building blocks of all successful explanations. Yet despite their importance, these notions have been conceptually underdeveloped and inconsistently applied in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), a fast-growing research area that is so far lacking in firm theoretical foundations. Building on work in logic, probability, and causality, we establish the central role of necessity and sufficiency in XAI, unifying seemingly disparate methods in a single formal framework. We provide a sound and complete algorithm for computing explanatory factors with respect to a given context, and demonstrate its flexibility and competitive performance against state of the art alternatives on various tasks.

Local Explanations via Necessity and Sufficiency: Unifying Theory and Practice

Auto-Encoder (AE) based neural generative frameworks model the joint-distribution between the data and the latent space using an Encoder-Decoder pair, with regularization imposed in terms of a prior over the latent space. Despite their advantages, such as stability in training, efficient inference, the performance of AE based models has not reached the superior standards of the other generative models such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Motivated by this, we examine the effect of the latent prior on the generation quality of deterministic AE models in this paper. Specifically, we consider the class of Generative AE models with deterministic Encoder-Decoder pair (such as Wasserstein Auto-Encoder (WAE), Adversarial Auto-Encoder (AAE)), and show that having a fixed prior distribution, \textit{a priori}, oblivious to the dimensionality of the `true' latent space, will lead to the infeasibility of the optimization problem considered. As a remedy to the issue mentioned above, we introduce an additional state space in the form of flexibly learnable latent priors, in the optimization objective of WAE/AAE. Additionally, we employ a latent-space interpolation based smoothing scheme to address the non-smoothness that may arise from highly flexible priors. We show the efficacy of our proposed models, called FlexAE and FlexAE-SR, through several experiments on multiple datasets, and demonstrate that FlexAE-SR is the new state-of-the-art for the AE based generative models in terms of generation quality as measured by several metrics such as Fr\'echet Inception Distance, Precision/Recall score. Code for our paper is available at: \url{https://github.com/dair-iitd/FlexAE}

Flexibly Learning Latent Priors for Wasserstein Auto-Encoders

Greedy coordinate descent (GCD) is an efficient optimization algorithm for a wide range of machine learning and data mining applications. GCD could be significantly faster than randomized coordinate descent (RCD) if they have similar per iteration cost. Nevertheless, in some cases, the greedy rule used in GCD cannot be efficiently implemented, leading to huge per iteration cost and making GCD slower than RCD. To alleviate the cost per iteration, the existing solutions rely on maximum inner product search (MIPS) as an approximate greedy rule. But it has been empirically shown that GCD with approximate greedy rule could suffer from slow convergence even with the state-of-the-art MIPS algorithms. We propose a hybrid coordinate descent algorithm with a simple variable partition strategy to tackle the cases when greedy rule cannot be implemented efficiently. The convergence rate and theoretical properties of the new algorithm are presented. The proposed method is shown to be especially useful when the data matrix has a group structure. Numerical experiments with both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that our new algorithm is competitive against RCD, GCD, approximate GCD with MIPS and their accelerated variants.

Efficient Greedy Coordinate Descent via Variable Partitioning

Tucker decomposition is a classical tensor factorization model. Compared with the most widely used CP decomposition, the Tucker model is much more flexible and interpretable in that it accounts for every possible (multiplicative) interaction between the factors in different modes. However, this also brings in the risk of overfitting and computational challenges, especially in the case of fast streaming data. To address these issues, we develop BASS-Tucker, a BAyesian Streaming Sparse Tucker decomposition method. We place a spike-and-slab prior over the core tensor elements to automatically select meaningful factor interactions so as to prevent overfitting and to further enhance the interpretability. To enable efficient streaming factorization, we use conditional moment matching and Delta's method to develop one-shot incremental update of the latent factors and core tensor upon receiving each streaming batch. Thereby, we avoid processing the data points one by one as in the standard assumed density filtering, which needs to update the core tensor for each point and is quite inefficient. We explicitly introduce and update a sparse prior approximation in the running posterior to fulfill effective sparse estimation in the streaming inference. We show the advantage of BASS-Tucker in several real-world applications.

Bayesian Streaming Sparse Tucker Decomposition

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular method for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. BO budgets are typically given in iterations, which implicitly assumes each evaluation has the same cost. In fact, in many BO applications, evaluation costs vary significantly in different regions of the search space. In hyperparameter optimization, the time spent on neural network training increases with layer size; in clinical trials, the monetary cost of drug compounds vary; and in optimal control, control actions have differing complexities. Cost-constrained BO measures convergence with alternative cost metrics such as time, money, or energy, for which the sample efficiency of standard BO methods is ill-suited. For cost-constrained BO, cost efficiency is far more important than sample efficiency. In this paper, we formulate cost-constrained BO as a constrained Markov decision process (CMDP), and develop an efficient rollout approximation to the optimal CMDP policy that takes both the cost and future iterations into account. We validate our method on a collection of hyperparameter optimization problems as well as a sensor set selection application.

Nonmyopic Approach to Cost-Constrained Bayesian Optimization

The sample efficiency of Bayesian optimization(BO) is often boosted by Gaussian Process(GP) surrogate models. However, on mixed variable spaces, surrogate models other than GPs are prevalent, mainly due to the lack of kernels which can model complex dependencies across different types of variables. In this paper, we propose the frequency modulated(FM) kernel flexibly modeling dependencies among different types of variables, so that BO can enjoy the further improved sample efficiency. The FM kernel uses distances on continuous variables to modulate the graph Fourier spectrum derived from discrete variables. However, the frequency modulation does not always define a kernel with the similarity measure behavior which returns higher values for pairs of more similar points. Therefore, we specify and prove conditions for FM kernels to be positive definite and to exhibit the similarity measure behavior. In experiments, we demonstrate the improved sample efficiency of GP BO using FM kernels(BO-FM). On synthetic problems and hyperparameter optimization problems, BO-FM outperforms competitors consistently. Also, the importance of the frequency modulation principle is empirically demonstrated on the same problems. On joint optimization of neural architectures and SGD hyperparameters, BO-FM outperforms competitors including Regularized evolution (RE) and BOHB. Remarkably, BO-FM performs better even than RE using three times evaluations.

Subseasonal Climate Prediction in the Western US using Bayesian Spatial Models

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Hierarchical Indian Buffet Neural Networks for Bayesian Continual Learning

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Subseasonal Climate Prediction in the Western US using Bayesian Spatial Models

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Next from UAI 2021

Hierarchical Indian Buffet Neural Networks for Bayesian Continual Learning

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Comparative Analysis of Collaborative Filtering-Based Predictors of Scores in Surveys of a Large Company

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PRESENTATIONS

CONFERENCES

COMPANY

RESOURCES

Downloads