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Max-linear Bayesian networks have emerged as highly applicable models for causal inference via extreme value data. However, conditional independence (CI) for max-linear Bayesian networks behaves differently than for classical Gaussian Bayesian networks. We establish the parallel between the two theories via tropicalization, and establish the surprising result that the Markov equivalence classes for max-linear Bayesian networks coincide with the ones obtained by regular CI. Our paper opens up many problems at the intersection of extreme value statistics, causal inference and tropical geometry.

UAI 2021

Markov Equivalence of Max-Linear Bayesian Networks

tropical geometry

max-linear model

markov equivalence

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NAML 2021

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The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

The 37th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2021) is held fully online. We have an exciting program consisting of keynote talks by [Susan Murphy](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=A), [Eric Horvitz](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=B), [Lenka Zdeborová](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=C), [Judea Pearl](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=D) and [Ankur Moitra](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=E), a town hall meeting, peer-reviewed papers, and three workshops. The main conference is single-track and each paper is show-cased with a live component (either a live discussion and Q&A, or a live lightning talk). All papers are also featured in video presentations and in poster sessions in gather.town. The three parallel workshops on Friday allow for smaller meetings on current topics.

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Have a great UAI 2021! 
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<br>Cassio de Campos and Marloes Maathuis
<br>UAI 2021 Program Chairs
<br>uai2021programchairs@gmail.com

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The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

Variational inference has had great success in scaling approximate Bayesian inference to big data by exploiting mini-batch training. To date, however, this strategy has been most applicable to models of independent data. We propose an extension to state space models of time series data based on a novel generative model for latent temporal states: the neural moving average model. This permits a subsequence to be sampled without drawing from the entire distribution, enabling training iterations to use mini-batches of the time series at low computational cost. We illustrate our method on autoregressive, Lotka-Volterra, FitzHugh-Nagumo and stochastic volatility models, achieving accurate parameter estimation in a short time.

The Neural Moving Average Model for Scalable Variational Inference of State Space Models

Batch Bayesian optimisation (BO) is a successful technique for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. Asynchronous BO can reduce wallclock time by starting a new evaluation as soon as another finishes, thus maximising resource utilisation. To maximise resource allocation, we develop a novel asynchronous BO method, AEGiS (Asynchronous ε-Greedy Global Search) that combines greedy search, exploiting the surrogate's mean prediction, with Thompson sampling and random selection from the approximate Pareto set describing the trade-off between exploitation (surrogate mean prediction) and exploration (surrogate posterior variance). We demonstrate empirically the efficacy of AEGiS on synthetic benchmark problems, meta-surrogate hyperparameter tuning problems and real-world problems, showing that AEGiS generally outperforms existing methods for asynchronous BO. When a single worker is available performance is no worse than BO using expected improvement.



Asynchronous e-Greedy Bayesian Optimisation

Sparse Gaussian processes and various extensions thereof are enabled through inducing points, that simultaneously bottleneck the predictive capacity and act as the main contributor towards model complexity. However, the number of inducing points is generally not associated with uncertainty which prevents us from applying the apparatus of Bayesian reasoning for identifying an appropriate trade-off. In this work we place a point process prior on the inducing points and approximate the associated posterior through stochastic variational inference. By letting the prior encourage a moderate number of inducing points, we enable the model to learn which and how many points to utilise. We experimentally show that fewer inducing points are preferred by the model as the points become less informative, and further demonstrate how the method can be employed in deep Gaussian processes and latent variable modelling.


Probabilistic Selection of Inducing Points in Sparse Gaussian Processes

For a continuous random variable $Z$, testing conditional independence $X\indep Y|Z$ is known to be a particularly hard problem. It constitutes a key ingredient of many constraint-based causal discovery algorithms. These algorithms are often applied to datasets containing binary variables, which indicate the ‘context’ of the observations, e.g. a control or treatment group within an experiment. In these settings, conditional independence testing with $X$ or $Y$ binary (and the other continuous) is paramount to the performance of the causal discovery algorithm. To our knowledge no nonparametric ‘mixed’ conditional independence test currently exists, and in practice tests that assume all variables to be continuous are used instead. In this paper we aim to fill this gap, as we combine elements of Holmes et al. (2015) and Teymur and Filippi (2020) to propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric conditional two-sample test. Applied to the Local Causal Discovery algorithm, we investigate its performance on both synthetic and real-world data, and compare with state-of-the-art conditional independence tests.


A Bayesian Nonparametric Conditional Two-sample Test with an Application to Local Causal Discovery

The graphical structure of Probabilistic Graphica+C7:C63l Models (PGMs) encodes the conditional independence (CI) relations that hold in the modeled distribution. Graph algorithms, such as d-separation, use this structure to infer additional conditional independencies, and to query whether a specific CI holds in the distribution. The premise of all current systems-of-inference for deriving CIs in PGMs, is that the set of CIs used for the construction of the PGM hold exactly.

Approximate Implication with d-Separation

Finding a consistent DAG extension for a given partially directed acyclic graph (PDAG) is a basic building block used in graphical causal analysis. In 1992, Dor and Tarsi proposed an algorithm with time complexity $O(n^4)$, which has been widely used in causal theory and practice so far. It is a long-standing open question whether an extension can be computed faster and, in particular, it was conjectured that a linear-time method may exist. The main contributions of our work are two-fold: Firstly, we propose a new algorithm for the extension problem for PDAGs which runs in time $O(n^3)$; secondly, we show that, under a computational intractability assumption, our cubic algorithm is optimal. Thus, our impossibility result disproves the conjecture that a linear-time method exists. Based on these results, we present a full complexity landscape for finding extensions in various causal graphical models. We extend the techniques to recognition problems and apply them to design an effective algorithm for closing a PDAG under the orientation rules of Meek.

Extendability of Causal Graphical Models: Algorithms and Computational Complexity

An important achievement in the field of causal inference was a complete characterization of when a causal effect, in a system modeled by a causal graph, can be determined uniquely from purely observational data. The identification algorithms resulting from this work produce exact symbolic expressions for causal effects, in terms of the observational probabilities. More recent work has looked at the numerical properties of these expressions, in particular using the classical notion of the condition number. In its classical interpretation, the condition number quantifies the sensitivity of the output values of the expressions to small numerical perturbations in the input observational probabilities. In the context of causal identification, the condition number has also been shown to be related to the effect of certain kinds of uncertainties in the structure of the causal graphical model.

Condition Number Bounds for Causal Inference

Unsupervised multi-object scene decomposition is a fast-emerging problem in representation learning. Despite significant progress in static scenes, such models are unable to leverage important dynamic cues present in videos. We propose PROVIDE, a novel unsupervised framework for PRObabilistic VIdeo DEcomposition based on a temporal extension of iterative inference. PROVIDE is powerful enough to jointly model complex individual multi-object representations and explicit temporal dependencies between latent variables across frames. This is achieved by leveraging 2D-LSTM, temporally conditioned inference and generation within the iterative amortized inference for posterior refinement. Our method improves the overall quality of decompositions, encodes information about the objects' dynamics, and can be used to predict trajectories of each object separately. Additionally, we show that our model has a high accuracy even without color information. We demonstrate the decomposition capabilities of our model and show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art on several benchmark datasets, one of which was curated for this work and will be made publicly available.

PROVIDE: A Probabilistic Framework for Unsupervised Video Decomposition

Conditional independence (CI) is a fundamental concept with wide applications in machine learning and causal inference. Although the problems of testing CI and estimating divergences have been extensively studied, the complementary problem of generating data that satisfies CI has received much less attention. Given samples from an input data distribution, we formulate the problem of generating samples from a distribution that is close to the input distribution and satisfies CI. We establish a general characterization of CI in terms of a divergence identity that holds for a large class of divergences satisfying separability and strict convexity properties. Based on the Jensen-Shannon version of this identity, an architecture is proposed that leverages the capabilities of generative adversarial networks (GANs) to enforce CI in an end-to-end differentiable manner. As one illustration of the problem formulation and architecture, we consider applications to notions of fairness that can be written as enforcing CIs. We demonstrate the generation of data to trade off adherence to fairness criteria against classification accuracy.

Conditionally Independent Data Generation

We consider Bayesian inference problems where the likelihood function is either expensive to evaluate or only available via noisy estimates. This setting encompasses application scenarios involving, for example, large datasets or models whose likelihood evaluations require expensive simulations. We formulate this problem within a Bayesian optimisation framework over a space of probability distributions and derive an upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithm to propose non-parametric distribution candidates. The algorithm is designed to minimise regret, which is defined as the Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to the true posterior in this case. Equipped with a Gaussian process surrogate model, we show that the resulting UCB algorithm achieves asymptotically no regret. The method can be easily implemented as a batch Bayesian optimisation algorithm whose point evaluations are selected via Markov chain Monte Carlo. Experimental results demonstrate the method's performance on inference problems.

Markov Equivalence of Max-Linear Bayesian Networks

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