Singapore

We introduce the Probabilistic Coin Change Problem (PCCP), a novel variant of the classical Combination Coin Change Problem (CCCP), motivated by a real-world scientific inverse task. The goal of CCCP is to enumerate all unordered combinations of coin denominations that sum to a given target. In PCCP, each coin type’s value follows a discrete probability distribution, and the aggregate value of a combination of coins is thus stochastic. Given a set of such coin types and noisy observations of total sums, the task is to infer the most likely latent coin combination. To address the combinatorial and probabilistic complexity of PCCP, we propose DeepProReasoner (\textbf{Deep} Combinatorial \textbf{Pro}babilistic \textbf{Reason}ing with \textbf{E}mbedded \textbf{R}epresentations), an unsupervised, end-to-end, deep-learning framework that integrates combinatorial reasoning, latent-space modeling, and differentiable probabilistic reasoning. The model is trained using a reconstruction loss between the observed empirical distribution and a decoded probability mass function (PMF), enabling efficient gradient-based search over a continuous relaxation of the combinatorial space. We evaluate DeepProReasoner on two instances of PCCP: (1) a synthetic Candy Mix problem for ablation studies, and (2) a real-world task of molecular formula inference from ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry (MS) data. Besides the two given instances, PCCP captures a wide range of inverse settings in biology, chemistry, environmental sciences, and medicine, where latent combinatorial structures give rise to noisy aggregate observations through stochastic processes. Our results show that DeepProReasoner achieves high accuracy and robustness, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.

AAAI 2026

Unsupervised Combinatorial Probabilistic Reasoning: Probabilistic Coin Change Problem

poster

We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-26 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.<br><br>

To access this event page, you need to log in with the **email address you registered with**. <br>Access credentials will be sent to your email from Underline -  subject line "Welcome to AAAI 2026". Please be sure to check your spam email folder if you do not see an email confirmation right away.

Please log in

To access this event page, you are required to register.
Please complete your registration to continue.

We recommend reading [**the registration information**](https://aaai.org/conference/aaai/aaai-26/registration/) first.

**Online Registration Form**: https://aaai.getregistered.net/conference-2026 

Registration Required

We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

Reliable prediction of train delays is essential for enhancing the robustness and efficiency of railway transportation systems. In this work, we reframe delay forecasting as a stochastic simulation task, modeling state-transition dynamics through imitation learning. We introduce Drift-Corrected Imitation Learning (DCIL), a novel self-supervised algorithm that extends DAgger by incorporating distance-based drift correction, thereby mitigating covariate shift during rollouts without requiring access to an external oracle or adversarial schemes. Our approach synthesizes the interpretability of event-driven models with the representational capacity of data-driven methods, enabling uncertainty-aware forecasting via Monte Carlo simulation. We evaluate DCIL using a comprehensive real-world dataset from \textsc{Infrabel}, the Belgian railway infrastructure manager, which encompasses over three million train movements. Our results, focused on predictions up to 30 minutes ahead, demonstrate superior predictive performance of DCIL over traditional regression models and behavioral cloning on deep learning architectures, highlighting its effectiveness in capturing the sequential and uncertain nature of delay propagation in large-scale networks.

Simulation-Driven Railway Delay Prediction: An Imitation Learning Approach

Visual autoregressive modeling (VAR) via next-scale prediction has emerged as a scalable image generation paradigm. While Key and Value (KV) caching in large language models (LLMs) has been extensively studied, next-scale prediction presents unique challenges, and KV caching design for next-scale based VAR transformers remains largely unexplored. A major bottleneck is the excessive KV memory growth with the increasing number of scales—severely limiting scalability. Our systematic investigation reveals that: (1) Attending to tokens from local scales significantly contributes to generation quality (2) Allocating a small amount of memory for the coarsest scales, termed as condensed scales, stabilizes multi-scale image generation (3) Strong KV similarity across finer scales is predominantly observed in cache-efficient layers, whereas cache-demanding layers exhibit weaker inter-scale similarity. Based on the observations, we introduce AMS-KV, a scale-adaptive KV caching policy for next-scale prediction in VAR models. AMS-KV prioritizes storing KVs from condensed and local scales, preserving the most relevant tokens to maintain generation quality. It further optimizes KV cache utilization and computational efficiency identifying cache-demanding layers through inter-scale similarity analysis. Compared to the vanilla next-scale prediction-based VAR models, AMS-KV reduces KV cache usage by up to 84.83% and self-attention latency by 60.48%. Moreover, when the baseline VAR-d30 model encounters out-of-memory failures at a batch size of 128, AMS-KV enables stable scaling to a batch size of 256 with improved throughput.

AMS-KV: Adaptive KV Caching in Multi-Scale Visual Autoregressive Transformers

Explanatory Interactive Learning (XIL) is a powerful interactive learning framework designed to enable users to customize and correct AI models by interacting with their explanations. In a nutshell, XIL algorithms select a number of items on which an AI model made a decision (e.g., images and their tags) and present them to users, together with corresponding explanations (e.g., image regions that drive the model’s decision). Then, users supply corrective feedback for the explanations, which the algorithm uses to improve the model. Despite showing promise in debugging tasks, recent studies have raised concerns that explanatory interaction may trigger order effects, a well-known cognitive bias in which the sequence of presented items influences users’ trust and, critically, the quality of their feedback. We argue that these studies are not entirely conclusive, as the experimental designs and tasks employed differ substantially from common XIL use cases, complicating interpretation. To clarify the interplay between order effects and explanatory interaction, we ran a larger-scale user study (n = 713 total) designed to mimic common XIL tasks. Specifically, we assessed order effects both within and between debugging sessions by manipulating the order in which correct and wrong explanations are presented to participants. Order effects had a limited but significant impact on users’ agreement with the model (i.e., a behavioral measure of their trust), and only when examined within debugging sessions, not between them. The quality of users’ feedback reached satisfactory levels overall, with order effects exerting only a small and inconsistent influence both within and between sessions. Overall, our findings suggest that order effects do not pose a significant issue to the successful employment of XIL approaches. More broadly, our work contributes to the ongoing efforts for understanding human factors in AI.

Human Cognitive Biases in Explanation-based Interaction: The Case of Within and Between Session Order Effect

Ensuring safety in autonomous systems with vision-based control remains a critical challenge due to the high dimensionality of image inputs and the fact that the relationship between true system state and its visual manifestation is unknown. 
Existing methods for learning-based control in such settings typically lack formal safety guarantees.
To address this challenge, we introduce a novel semi-probabilistic verification framework that integrates reachability analysis with conditional generative networks and distribution-free tail bounds to enable efficient and scalable verification of vision-based neural network controllers.
Next, we develop a gradient-based training approach that employs a novel safety loss function, safety-aware data-sampling strategy to efficiently select and store critical training examples, and curriculum learning, to efficiently synthesize safe controllers in the semi-probabilistic framework.
Empirical evaluations in X-Plane 11 airplane landing simulation, CARLA-simulated autonomous lane following, F1Tenth vehicle lane following in a physical visually-rich miniature environment, and Airsim-simulated drone navigation and obstacle avoidance demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in achieving formal safety guarantees while maintaining strong nominal performance.

Learning Vision-Based Neural Network Controllers with Semi-Probabilistic Safety Guarantees

Positional bias—where models overemphasize certain positions regardless of content—has been shown to negatively impact model performance across various tasks. While recent research has extensively examined positional bias in text generation models, its presence and effects in representation models remain underexplored. Even less is known about such biases in multimodal models. In this work, we investigate positional bias in multimodal representation models, specifically in the context of image-text retrieval. We begin by distinguishing between context importance and positional bias, and then assess the presence and extent of positional bias across different models and datasets. Our experiments demonstrate that positional bias is prevalent in multimodal models, but manifests differently across modalities: text encoders tend to exhibit bias toward the beginning of the input, whereas image encoders show bias at both the beginning and end. Furthermore, we find that this bias arises from, or is amplified by, a combination of factors, including the positional encoding scheme, training loss, context importance, and the nature of using image-text pairs in multimodal training

Positional Bias in Multimodal Embedding Models: Do They Favor the Beginning, the Middle, or the End?

The deployment of large language models for specialized tasks often requires domain-specific parameter-efficient finetuning through Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) modules. However, effectively fusing these adapters to handle complex, multi-domain composite queries remains a critical challenge. Existing LoRA fusion approaches either use static weights, which assign equal relevance to each participating LoRA, or require data-intensive supervised training for every possible LoRA combination to obtain respective optimal fusion weights. We propose qa-FLoRA, a novel query-adaptive training-free method for LoRA fusion that dynamically computes layer-level fusion weights by measuring distributional divergence between the base model and respective adapters. Our approach eliminates the need for composite training data or domain-representative samples, making it readily applicable to existing adapter collections. Extensive experiments across nine multilingual composite tasks spanning mathematics, coding, and medical domains, show that qa-FLoRA outperforms static fusion by $\sim$5\% and training-free baselines by $\sim$7\%, while significantly closing the gap with supervised baselines. Further, layer-level analysis of our fusion weights reveals interpretable fusion patterns, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach for robust multi-domain adaptation.

qa-FLoRA: Data-free query-adaptive Fusion of LoRAs for LLMs

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a new information channel. Meanwhile, one critical but under-explored question is: Is it possible to bypass the safety alignment and inject harmful information into LLMs stealthily? In this paper, we propose to reformulate knowledge editing as a new type of safety threat for LLMs, namely Editing Attack, and conduct a systematic investigation with a newly constructed dataset EditAttack. Specifically, we focus on two typical safety risks of Editing Attack including Misinformation Injection and Bias Injection. For the first risk, we find that editing attacks can inject both commonsense and long-tail misinformation into LLMs, and the effectiveness for the former one is particularly high. For the second risk, we discover that not only can biased sentences be injected into LLMs with high effectiveness, but also one single biased sentence injection can degrade the overall fairness. Then, we further illustrate the high stealthiness of editing attacks. Our discoveries demonstrate the emerging misuse risks of knowledge editing techniques on compromising the safety alignment of LLMs and the feasibility of disseminating misinformation or bias with LLMs as new channels.

Can Editing LLMs Inject Harm?

Analogical reasoning is a powerful inductive mechanism, widely used in human cognition and increasingly applied in artificial intelligence. Formal frameworks for analogical inference have been developed for Boolean domains, where inference is provably sound for affine functions and approximately correct for functions close to affine. These results have informed the design of analogy-based classifiers. However, they do not extend to regression tasks or continuous domains.
In this paper, we revisit analogical inference from a foundational perspective. We first present a counterexample showing that existing generalization bounds fail even in the Boolean setting. We then introduce a unified framework for analogical reasoning in real-valued domains based on parameterized analogies defined via generalized means. This model subsumes both Boolean classification and regression, and supports analogical inference over continuous functions. We characterize the class of analogy-preserving functions in this setting and derive both worst-case and average-case error bounds under smoothness assumptions. Our results offer a general theory of analogical inference across discrete and continuous domains.

Generalizing Analogical Inference from Boolean to Continuous Domains

We study non-linear bandit optimization where the learner maximizes a black-box function with zeroth order function oracle, which has been successfully applied in many critical applications such as drug discovery and materials design. Existing works have showed that with the aid of quantum computing, it is possible to break the classical $\Omega(\sqrt{T})$ regret lower bound and achieve the new $O(\mathrm{poly}\log T)$ upper bound. However, they usually assume that the objective function sits within the reproducing kernel Hilbert space and their algorithms suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we propose the new Q-NLB-UCB algorithm which enjoys an input dimension-free $O(\mathrm{poly}\log T)$ upper bound, making it applicable for high-dimensional tasks. Furthermore, its time complexity is rigorously demonstrated to be lower than that of existing quantum bandit optimization algorithms. At the heart of our algorithm design are quantum Monte Carlo mean estimator, parametric function approximation technique, and a new quantum non-linear regression oracle, which can be of independent interests in more quantum machine learning problems. Our algorithm is also validated for its efficiency compared with other quantum algorithms on both high-dimensional synthetic and real-world tasks.

Quantum Non-Linear Bandit Optimization

We study a Stackelberg variant of the classical Most Vital Links problem, modeled as a one-round adversarial game between an attacker and a defender. The attacker strategically removes up to $k$ edges from a flow network to maximally disrupt flow between a source $s$ and a sink $t$, after which the defender optimally reroutes the remaining flow.
To capture this attacker–defender interaction, we introduce a new mathematical model of
*discounted cuts*, in which the cost of a cut is evaluated by excluding its $k$ most expensive edges. This model generalizes the Most Vital Links problem and uncovers novel algorithmic and complexity-theoretic properties.

We develop a unified algorithmic framework for analyzing various forms of discounted cut problems, including minimizing or maximizing the cost of a cut under discount mechanisms that exclude either the $k$ most expensive or the $k$ cheapest edges. While most variants are NP-complete on general graphs, our main result establishes polynomial-time solvability for all discounted cut problems in our framework when the input is restricted to bounded-genus graphs, a relevant class that includes many real-world networks such as transportation and infrastructure networks.
With this work, we aim to open collaborative bridges between artificial intelligence, algorithmic game theory, and operations research.

Downloads

Next from AAAI 2026

Simulation-Driven Railway Delay Prediction: An Imitation Learning Approach

Stay up to date with the latest Underline news!

PRESENTATIONS

CONFERENCES

COMPANY

RESOURCES

.css-70qvj9{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}Downloads

Next from AAAI 2026

Simulation-Driven Railway Delay Prediction: An Imitation Learning Approach

Stay up to date with the latest Underline news!

PRESENTATIONS

CONFERENCES

COMPANY

RESOURCES

Downloads