Singapore

Counterfactual decision-making in the face of uncertainty involves selecting the optimal action from several alternatives using causal reasoning. Decision-makers often rank expected potential outcomes (or their corresponding utility and desirability) to compare the preferences of candidate actions. In this paper, we study new counterfactual decision-making rules by introducing two new metrics: the probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and the probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). PoR reveals the most probable ranking of potential outcomes for an individual, and PoB indicates the action most likely to yield the top-ranked outcome for an individual. We then establish identification theorems and derive bounds for these metrics, and present estimation methods. Finally, we perform numerical experiments to illustrate the finite-sample properties of the estimators and demonstrate their application to a real-world dataset.

AAAI 2026

Potential Outcome Rankings for Counterfactual Decision Making

probability of achieving the best potential outcome

probabilities of potential outcome ranking

counterfactual decision-making

causal inference

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
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AAAI 2023

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

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We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-26 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

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We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

Post-Training Quantization enables efficient Vision Transformer (ViTs) deployment with a small calibration data, and its prevalent use of uniform quantization harnesses AI accelerator matrix cores for high-speed inference. However, the application of uniform quantization is fundamentally challenged by the extreme non-uniformity of activation distributions.Specifically, the power-law nature of post-Softmax attention scores and the significant inter-channel variance in post-GELU activations create a dilemma for conventional quantization, as it struggles to preserve critical high-magnitude values without sacrificing overall precision. To resolve this core conflict, we introduce UQ-ViT (Uniform Quantization for Vision Transformers), a novel uniform quantization framework designed to reconcile high precision with hardware efficiency. Central to UQ-ViT are two operators: Dynamic Elimination of Maximum (DeMax) and Normalization Quantization (NormQuant). DeMax is a quantization operator for post-Softmax attention scores that utilizes uniform quantization. It dynamically eliminates and preserves dominant values, effectively mitigating quantization loss from the extreme values in the power-law distribution. NormQuant utilizes a per-channel quantization strategy during quantization and reverts to a per-tensor format for dequantization, achieving both high accuracy and computational efficiency. Crucially, it is applicable to any linear layer, enabling effective quantization of post-GELU activations in ViTs. Through extensive experiments on various ViTs and vision tasks, including image classification, object detection, and instance segmentation, we demonstrate that our proposed approach outperforms existing methods, achieving superior accuracy while ensuring hardware friendliness.

UQ-ViT: Harmonizing Extreme Activations with Hardware-Friendly Uniform Quantization in Vision Transformers

The proliferation of the tampered images on social media can pose serious societal risks, influencing public opinion and causing panic. Image Manipulation Localization technique has advanced to address this, but some methods focus on microscopic traces, overlooking macroscopic semantics that deceive viewers. To address this problem, we propose a novel Image Manipulation Localization framework called Collaborative Transformers (Co-Transformers), designed to fully explore and utilize the collaborative information between macroscopic semantics and microscopic traces. This framework is based on two Vision Transformer variants. The first variant captures the semantic logic of the image. The second variant delves into microscopic tampering traces. By dynamically fusing these two complementary features, the framework enables interaction between macroscopic semantic inconsistencies and microscopic abnormal traces, effectively coordinating their relationship in the latent space. Furthermore, we introduce a new Multi-Level Forensic Attention (MLF-Attention) mechanism to enhance the model's ability to extract various tampered traces, this mechanism can be integrated into our framework. Compared with existing methods, our proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art results in localization accuracy and shows good robustness against various attacks.

Collaborative Transformers with Multi-Level Forensic Attention for Image Manipulation Localization

Current low-light image restoration methods suffer from severe efficiency bottlenecks, primarily stemming from: (1) computational burden and error correction costs associated with reliance on external priors (manual or cross-modal); (2) redundant operations in complex multi-stage enhancement pipelines; and (3) indiscriminate processing across frequency components in frequency-domain methods, leading to excessive global computational demands. To address these challenges, we propose an Efficient Self-Mining Prior-Guided Joint Frequency Enhancement Network (SPJFNet). Specifically, we first introduce a Self-Mining Guidance Module (SMGM) that generates lightweight endogenous guidance directly from the network, eliminating dependence on external priors and thereby bypassing error correction overhead while improving inference speed. Second, through meticulous analysis of different frequency domain characteristics, we reconstruct and compress multi-level operation chains into a single efficient operation via lossless wavelet decomposition and joint Fourier-based advantageous frequency enhancement, significantly reducing parameters. Building upon this foundation, we propose a Dual-Frequency Guidance Framework (DFGF) that strategically deploys specialized high/low frequency branches (wavelet-domain high-frequency enhancement and Fourier-domain low-frequency restoration), decoupling frequency processing to substantially reduce computational complexity. Rigorous evaluation across multiple benchmarks demonstrates that SPJFNet not only surpasses state-of-the-art performance but also achieves significant efficiency improvements, substantially reducing model complexity and computational overhead.

SPJFNet: Self-Mining Prior-Guided Joint Frequency Enhancement for Ultra-Efficient Dark Image Restoration

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have increasingly demonstrated their potential for event reasoning. However, current LLMs struggle with this task due to their limited capacity to explicitly model the structured semantics of events, resulting in insufficient schema knowledge and low reasoning performance. To address these challenges, we propose SGER, a Schema-Guided Event Reasoning framework. It constructs a systematic solution by decomposing complex event reasoning tasks into three interrelated subtasks: schema extraction, schema prediction, and event reasoning. In the schema extraction stage, the model maps event descriptions with diverse surface forms to potential semantic structure representations, achieving an abstract transformation from instances to schemas. The schema prediction stage captures the potential associations between historical event schemas to make forward-looking inferences about possible future event schemas. In the event reasoning stage, we integrate historical events and predicted schemas into prompts to guide LLMs in generating specific, contextually consistent predicted events. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that our framework significantly improves event reasoning performance of LLMs.

Schema-Guided Event Reasoning: A Plug-and-Play Event Reasoning Framework Based on Large Language Models

Multi-sensor fusion using LiDAR and RGB cameras significantly enhances 3D object detection task. However, conventional LiDAR sensors perform dense, stateless scans, ignoring the strong temporal continuity in real-world scenes. This leads to substantial sensing redundancy and excessive power consumption, limiting their practicality on resource-constrained platforms. To address this inefficiency, we propose a predictive, history-aware adaptive scanning framework that anticipates informative regions of interest (ROI) based on past observations. Our approach introduces a lightweight predictor network that distills historical spatial and temporal contexts into refined query embeddings. These embeddings guide a differentiable mask generator network, which leverages Gumbel-Softmax sampling to produce binary masks identifying critical ROIs for the upcoming frame. Our method significantly reduces unnecessary data acquisition by concentrating dense LiDAR scanning only within these ROIs and sparsely sampling elsewhere. 
Experiments on nuScenes and Lyft benchmarks demonstrate that our adaptive scanning strategy reduces LiDAR energy consumption by over 65% while maintaining competitive or even superior 3D object detection performance compared to traditional LiDAR-camera fusion methods with dense LiDAR scanning.

Adaptive LiDAR Scanning: Harnessing Temporal Cues for Efficient 3D Object Detection via Multi-Modal Fusion

Given the high cost of large language model (LLM) training from scratch, safeguarding LLM intellectual property (IP) becomes increasingly crucial. As the standard paradigm for IP ownership verification, LLM fingerprinting thus plays a vital role in addressing this challenge. Existing LLM fingerprinting methods verify ownership by extracting or injecting model-specific features. However, they overlook potential attacks during the verification process, leaving them ineffective when the model thief fully controls the LLM's inference process. In such settings, attackers may share prompt-response pairs to enable fingerprint unlearning, or manipulate outputs to evade exact-match verification. We propose iSeal, the first fingerprinting method designed for reliable verification when the model thief controls the suspected LLM in an end-to-end manner. It injects unique features into both the model and an external module, reinforced by an error-correction mechanism and a similarity-based verification strategy. These components are resistant to verification-time attacks, including collusion-based fingerprint unlearning and response manipulation, backed by both theoretical analysis and empirical results. iSeal achieves 100% Fingerprint Success Rate (FSR) on 12 LLMs against more than 10 attacks, while baselines fail under unlearning and response manipulations.

iSeal: Encrypted Fingerprinting for Reliable LLM Ownership Verification

Recommender systems have been widely deployed across various domains such as e-commerce and social media, and intelligently suggest items like products and potential friends to users based on their preferences and interaction history, which are often privacy-sensitive. Recent studies have revealed that recommender systems are prone to membership inference attacks (MIAs), where an attacker aims to infer whether or not a user's data has been used for training a target recommender system. However, existing MIAs fail to exploit the unique characteristic of recommender systems, and therefore are only applicable to mixed recommender systems consisting of two recommendation algorithms. This leaves a gap in investigating MIAs against hybrid-based recommender systems where the same algorithm utilising user-item historical interactions and attributes of users and items serves and produces personalised recommendations. To investigate how the personalisation in hybrid-based recommender systems influences MIA, we propose a novel metric-based MIA. Specifically, we leverage the characteristic of personalisation to obtain reference recommendation for any target users. Then, a relative membership metric is proposed to exploit a target user's historical interactions, target recommendation, and reference recommendation to infer the membership of the target user's data. Finally, we theoretically and empirically demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed metric-based MIA on hybrid-based recommender systems.

Reference Recommendation Based Membership Inference Attack Against Hybrid-Based Recommender Systems

We introduce a one-step generative policy for offline reinforcement learning that maps *noise* directly to *actions* via a *residual reformulation* of MeanFlow, making it compatible with Q-learning.
While one-step Gaussian policies enable fast inference, they struggle to capture complex, multimodal action distributions. Existing flow-based methods improve expressivity but typically rely on distillation and two-stage training when trained with Q-learning.
To overcome these limitations, we propose to reformulate MeanFlow to enable *direct noise-to-action generation* by integrating the velocity field and noise-to-action transformation into a single policy network—eliminating the need for separate velocity estimation. We explore several reformulation variants and identify an effective *residual formulation* that supports expressive and stable policy learning. Our method offers three key advantages: 1) efficient one-step noise-to-action generation, 2) expressive modelling of multimodal action distributions, and 3) efficient and stable policy learning via Q-learning in a single-stage training setup.
Extensive experiments on 73 tasks across the OGBench and D4RL benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves strong performance in both offline and offline-to-online reinforcement learning settings.

One-Step Generative Policies with Q-Learning: A Reformulation of MeanFlow

Understanding the emergence of collective behaviors of multi-agent systems requires investigating the learning dynamics. However, the theoretical analysis of large-scale graph-structured multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) systems remains challenging due to agent heterogeneity and the intrinsic coupling between state transitions and individual Q-value updates. In this work, we develop a unified theoretical framework that captures the evolution of agent behaviors at both individual and population levels. By leveraging pair-approximation technique from statistical physics, we derive a closed set of evolution equations that accurately describe the temporal dynamics of the system. Our analysis also reveals a separation of time scales. For small learning rates, state transitions equilibrate rapidly, while Q-value updates evolve slowly with stationary state distributions. Through extensive agent-based simulations, we validate the robustness of our theoretical results and explain the mechanisms that lead to the emergence of cooperation in social dilemmas. Our framework offers new perspectives for bridging complex systems science and MARL, providing insights for the design of cooperative and resilient AI.

Emergent Fast-Slow Dynamics in Multi-Agent Q-Learning for Networked Stochastic Games

Little research explores the correlation between the expressive ability and generalization ability of the low-rank adaptation (LoRA). Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) improves model generalization for both Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Transformers by encouraging convergence to locally flat minima. However, the connection between sharpness and generalization has not been fully explored for LoRA due to the lack of tools to either empirically seek flat minima or develop theoretical methods. In this work, we propose Flat-LoRA and its efficient version i.e., EFlat-LoRA, to seek flat minima for LoRA. Concretely, we theoretically demonstrate that perturbations in the full parameter space can be transferred to the low-rank subspace. This approach eliminates the potential interference introduced by perturbations across multiple matrices in the low-rank subspace. Our extensive experiments on large language models and vision-language models demonstrate that EFlat-LoRA achieves optimize efficiency comparable to that of LoRA while simultaneously attaining comparable or even better performance. For example, on the GLUE dataset with RoBERTa-large, EFlat-LoRA outperforms LoRA and full fine-tuning by 1.0% and 0.5% on average, respectively. On vision-language models e.g., Qwen-VL-Chat shows performance improvements of 1.5% and 1.0% on SQA and VizWiz datasets, respectively. These empirical results also verify that the generalization of LoRA is closely related to sharpness, which is omitted by previous methods.

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UQ-ViT: Harmonizing Extreme Activations with Hardware-Friendly Uniform Quantization in Vision Transformers

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Next from AAAI 2026

UQ-ViT: Harmonizing Extreme Activations with Hardware-Friendly Uniform Quantization in Vision Transformers

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Identification and Estimation of the Probabilities of Potential Outcome Types Using Covariate Information in Studies with Non-compliance

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