AAAI 2026

January 25, 2026

Singapore, Singapore

Would you like to see your presentation here, made available to a global audience of researchers?
Add your own presentation or have us affordably record your next conference.

Probabilistic forecasting is not only a way to add more information to a prediction of the future, but it also builds on weaknesses in point prediction. Sudden changes in a time series can still be captured by a cumulative distribution function (CDF), while a point prediction is likely to miss it entirely. The modeling of CDFs within forecasts has historically been limited to parametric approaches, but due to recent advances, this no longer has to be the case. We aim to advance the fields of probabilistic forecasting and monotonic networks by connecting them and propose an approach that permits the forecasting of implicit, complete, and nonparametric CDFs. For this purpose, we propose an adaptation to deep lattice networks (DLN) for monotonically constrained simultaneous/implicit quantile regression in time series forecasting. By leveraging long short term memory units (LSTM) as the embedding layer, and spreading quantile inputs to all sub-lattices of a DLN with an extended output size, we can produce a multi-horizon forecast of an implicit CDF due to the monotonic constraintability of DLNs. We compare and evaluate our approach's performance to relevant state of the art within the context of a highly relevant application of time series forecasting: Day-ahead, hourly forecasts of solar irradiance observations. Our experiments show that the adaptation of a DLN performs just as well or even better than an unconstrained approach. Further comparison of the adapted DLN against a scalable monotonic neural network shows that our approach performs better. With this adaptation of DLNs, we intend to create more interest and crossover investigations in techniques of monotonic neural networks and probabilistic forecasting.

Downloads

SlidesPaperTranscript English (automatic)

Next from AAAI 2026

MotionPhysics: Learnable Motion Distillation for Text-Guided Simulation
poster

MotionPhysics: Learnable Motion Distillation for Text-Guided Simulation

AAAI 2026

+1
Oisin Aodha and 3 other authors

25 January 2026

Stay up to date with the latest Underline news!

Select topic of interest (you can select more than one)

PRESENTATIONS

  • All Presentations
  • For Librarians
  • Resource Center
  • Free Trial
Underline Science, Inc.
1216 Broadway, 2nd Floor, New York, NY 10001, USA

© 2025 Underline - All rights reserved