China

Efficient simulation is essential for enhancing proactive preparedness for sudden-onset disasters such as earthquakes. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) as world models show promise in simulating complex scenarios. This study examines multiple LLMs to proactively estimate perceived earthquake impacts. Leveraging multimodal datasets including geospatial, socioeconomic, building, and street-level imagery data, our framework generates Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) predictions at zip code and county scales. Evaluations on the 2014 Napa and 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes using USGS ``Did You Feel It? (DYFI)&#39;&#39; reports demonstrate significant alignment, as evidenced by high correlation of 0.88 and low RMSE of 0.77 as compared to real reports at the zip code level. Techniques such as RAG and ICL can improve simulation performance, while visual inputs notably enhance accuracy compared to structured numerical data alone. These findings show the promise of LLMs in simulating disaster impacts that can help strengthen pre-event planning.

EMNLP 2025

LLMs as World Models: Data-Driven and Human-Centered Pre-Event Simulation for Disaster Impact Assessment

disaster simulation

pre-event assessment

large language models

Efficient simulation is essential for enhancing proactive preparedness for sudden-onset disasters such as earthquakes. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) as world models show promise in simulating complex scenarios. This study examines multiple LLMs to proactively estimate perceived earthquake impacts. Leveraging multimodal datasets including geospatial, socioeconomic, building, and street-level imagery data, our framework generates Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) predictions at zip code and county scales. Evaluations on the 2014 Napa and 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes using USGS ``Did You Feel It? (DYFI)'' reports demonstrate significant alignment, as evidenced by high correlation of 0.88 and low RMSE of 0.77 as compared to real reports at the zip code level. Techniques such as RAG and ICL can improve simulation performance, while visual inputs notably enhance accuracy compared to structured numerical data alone. These findings show the promise of LLMs in simulating disaster impacts that can help strengthen pre-event planning.

technical paper

## Welcome!
"I am excited to welcome you to this year’s edition of the Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing! Importantly, it marks the 30th edition of EMNLP. With over 8,000 submissions, more than 3,000 accepted papers, and thousands of attendees, we have come a long way from that first
workshop, which had 14 accepted papers. As the field looks ahead, Suzhou is the fitting location for celebrating this milestone: rooted in a long literary tradition, yet modern and forward-looking, and home to a large share of the NLP community."<br>

*Message from the General Chair, Dirk Hovy*





<br>

Celebrate 30 Years of EMNLP! 
EMNLP 2025 will be held in Suzhou, China from November 5th to November 9th, 2025.

Quality Estimation (QE) is estimating quality of the model output during inference when the ground truth is not available. Deriving output quality from the models' output probability is the most trivial and low-effort way. However, we show that the output probability of text-generation models can appear underconfident. At each output step, there can be multiple correct options, making the probability distribution spread out more. Thus, lower probability does not necessarily mean lower output quality. Due to this observation, we propose a QE approach called BoostedProb, which boosts the model's confidence in cases where there are multiple viable output options. With no increase in complexity, BoostedProb is notably better than raw model probability in different settings, achieving on average +0.194 improvement in Pearson correlation to ground-truth quality. It also comes close to or outperforms more costly approaches like supervised or ensemble-based QE in certain settings.

Are Generative Models Underconfident? Better Quality Estimation with Boosted Model Probability

Low-bit weight-only quantization significantly reduces the memory footprint of large language models (LLMs), but disproportionately affects certain examples. We analyze diverse 3-4 bit methods on LLMs ranging from 7B-70B in size and find that the quantization errors of 50 pairs of methods are strongly correlated (avg. ρ = 0.82) on FineWeb examples. Moreover, the residual stream magnitudes of full-precision models are indicative of future quantization errors. We further establish a hypothesis that relates the residual stream magnitudes to error amplification and accumulation over layers. Using LLM localization techniques, early exiting, and activation patching, we show that examples with large errors rely on precise residual activations in the late layers, and that the outputs of MLP gates play a crucial role in maintaining the perplexity. Our work reveals why certain examples result in large quantization errors and which model components are most critical for performance preservation.

Why Do Some Inputs Break Low-Bit LLM Quantization?

Modern automatic speech recognition (ASR) models, such as OpenAI’s Whisper, rely on deep encoder-decoder architectures, and their encoders are a critical bottleneck for efficient deployment due to high computational intensity. We introduce a low-rank compression scheme for ASR encoders that significantly reduces inference costs while maintaining transcription accuracy. Our approach leverages the strong low-rank properties observed in intermediate activations: by applying principal component analysis (PCA) with a small calibration data set, we approximate linear transformations with a chain of low-rank matrix multiplications, and further optimize self-attention to work in the reduced dimension. Evaluation results show that our method can compress Whisper large-v3's encoder size by over 50%, matching Whisper medium's size with better transcription accuracy, thereby establishing a new Pareto-optimal frontier of efficiency and performance.

LiteASR: Efficient Automatic Speech Recognition with Low-Rank Approximation

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant advancements in various fields, notably in Role-Playing Conversational Agents (RPCAs). However, when confronted with role-specific professional inquiries, LLMs-based RPCAs tend to underperform due to their excessive emphasis on the conversational abilities of characters rather than effectively invoking and integrating relevant expert knowledge. This often results in inaccurate responses. We refer to this phenomenon as the "Knowledge Misalignment" which underscores the limitations of RPCAs in integrating expert knowledge. To mitigate this issue, we have introduced an Anchoring-Guidance Fine-Tuning (AnGFT) Framework into the RPCAs' training process. This involves initially linking the Anchoring-Based System Prompt (ASP) with the LLM's relevant expert domains through diverse prompt construction strategies and supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Following the role-play enriched SFT, the integration of ASP enables LLMs to better associate with relevant expert knowledge, thus enhancing their response capabilities in role-specific expert domains. Moreover, we have developed four comprehensive metrics—helpfulness, thoroughness, credibility, and feasibility—to evaluate the proficiency of RPCAs in responding to professional questions. Our method was tested across four professional fields, and the experimental outcomes suggest that the proposed Anchoring-Guidance Fine-Tuning Framework substantially improves the RPCAs' performance in handling role-specific professional queries, thereby enhancing the agents' response quality while preserving their robust role-playing abilities.

Anchoring-Guidance Fine-Tuning (AnGFT): Elevating Professional Response Quality in Role-Playing Conversational Agents

Persona assignment has become a common strategy for customizing LLM use to particular tasks and contexts. In this study, we explore how evaluation of different nations changes when LLMs are assigned specific nationality personas. We assign 193 different nationality personas (e.g., an American person) to five LLMs and examine how the LLM evaluations (or ``perceptions'') of countries change. We find that all LLM-persona combinations tend to favor Western European nations, though nation-personas push LLM behaviors to focus more on and treat the nation-persona's own region more favorably. Eastern European, Latin American, and African nations are treated more negatively by different nationality personas. We additionally find that evaluations by nation-persona LLMs of other nations correlate with human survey responses but fail to match the values closely. Our study provides insight into how biases and stereotypes are realized within LLMs when adopting different national personas. Our findings underscore the critical need for developing mechanisms to ensure that LLM outputs promote fairness and avoid over-generalization.

Exploring Changes in Nation Perception with Nationality-Assigned Personas in LLMs

This paper focuses on generating speech with the acoustic style that meets users' needs based on their open-domain instructions. To control the style, early work mostly relies on pre-defined rules or templates. The control types and formats are fixed in a closed domain, making it hard to meet diverse needs of users. One solution is to resort to instructions in free text to guide the generation. Current work mainly studies the instructions that clearly specify the acoustic styles, such as low pitch and fast speed. However, the instructions are complex, some even vague and abstract, such as ``Generate a voice of a woman who is heartbroken due to a breakup. It is hard to infer this implicit style by traditional matching-based methods. To address this problem, we propose a new controllable model. It first utilizes multimodal LLMs with knowledge-augmented techniques to infer the desired speech style from the instructions. The powerful language understanding ability of LLMs can help us better elicit the implicit style factors from the instruction. By using these factors as a control condition, we design a diffusion-based generator adept at finely adjusting speech details. That offers higher flexibility to meet complex users' needs. Next, we verify the output speech from three aspects, i.e., consistency of decoding state, mel-spectrogram, and instruction style. This verified feedback can inversely optimize the generator. Extensive experiments are conducted on three popular datasets. The results show the effectiveness and good controllability of our approach.

Eliciting Implicit Acoustic Styles from Open-domain Instructions to Facilitate Fine-grained Controllable Generation of Speech

Large language models (LLMs) trained over extensive corpora risk memorizing sensitive, copyrighted, or toxic content. To address this, we propose \textbf{OBLIVIATE}, a robust unlearning framework that removes targeted data while preserving model utility. The framework follows a structured process: extracting target tokens, building retain sets, and fine-tuning with a tailored loss function comprising three components---masking, distillation, and world fact. Using low-rank adapters (LoRA), it ensures efficiency without compromising unlearning quality. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets, including the Harry Potter series, WMDP, and TOFU, using a comprehensive suite of metrics: \emph{forget quality} (new document-level memorization score), \emph{model utility}, and \emph{fluency}. Results demonstrate its effectiveness in resisting membership inference attacks, minimizing the impact on retained data, and maintaining robustness across diverse scenarios.

OBLIVIATE: Robust and Practical Machine Unlearning for Large Language Models

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely applied to legal tasks. To enhance their understanding of legal texts and improve reasoning accuracy, a promising approach is to incorporate legal theories. One of the most widely adopted theories is the Four-Element Theory (FET), which defines the crime constitution through four elements: Subject, Object, Subjective Aspect, and Objective Aspect. While recent work has explored prompting LLMs to follow FET, our evaluation demonstrates that LLM-generated four-elements are often incomplete and less representative, limiting their effectiveness in legal reasoning. To address these issues, we present JUREX-4E, an expert-annotated four-elements knowledge base covering 155 criminal charges. The annotations follow a progressive hierarchical framework grounded in legal source validity and incorporate diverse interpretive methods to ensure precision and authority. We evaluate JUREX-4E on the Similar Charge Distinction task and apply it to Legal Case Retrieval. Experimental results validate the high quality of JUREX-4E and its substantial impact on downstream legal tasks, underscoring its potential for advancing legal AI applications. The dataset and code are available at: \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/JUREX-86B9/}

JUREX-4E: Juridical Expert-Annotated Four-Element Knowledge Base for Legal Reasoning

Detoxification in large language models (LLMs) remains a significant research challenge. Existing decoding detoxification methods are all based on external constraints, which require additional resource overhead and lose generation fluency. This work innovatively proposes Detoxification with Self-Constrained Decoding (DSCD), a novel method for LLMs detoxification without parameter fine-tuning. DSCD strengthens the inner token distribution of the safety layer while weakening that of hallucination and toxic layer during output generation. This effectively diminishes toxicity and enhances output safety. DSCD offers lightweight, high compatibility, and plug-and-play capabilities, readily integrating with existing detoxification methods for further performance improvement. Extensive experiments on representative open-source LLMs and public datasets validate DSCD’s effectiveness, demonstrating state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in both detoxification and generation fluency, with superior efficiency compared to existing methods. These results highlight DSCD’s potential as a practical and scalable solution for safer LLM deployments.

DSCD: Large Language Model Detoxification with Self-Constrained Decoding

Detecting depression through users' social media posting history is crucial for enabling timely intervention; however, irrelevant content within these posts negatively impacts detection performance. Thus, it is crucial to extract pertinent content from users' complex posting history. Current methods utilize frozen screening models, which can miss critical information and limit overall performance due to isolated screening and detection processes. To address these limitations, we propose **E2-LPS** **E**nd-to-**E**nd **L**earnable **P**sychiatric Scale Guided Risky Post **S**creening Model) for jointly training our screening model, guided by psychiatric scales, alongside the detection model. We employ a straight-through estimator to enable a learnable end-to-end screening process and avoid the non-differentiability of the screening process. Experimental results show that E2-LPS outperforms several strong baseline methods, and qualitative analysis confirms that it better captures users' mental states than others.

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Are Generative Models Underconfident? Better Quality Estimation with Boosted Model Probability

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