United States

In this paper, we investigate the influence of claims in analyst reports and earnings calls on financial market returns, considering them as significant quarterly events for publicly traded companies. To facilitate a comprehensive analysis, we construct a new financial dataset for the claim detection task in the financial domain. We benchmark various language models on this dataset and propose a novel weak-supervision model that incorporates the knowledge of subject matter experts (SMEs) in the aggregation function, outperforming existing approaches. We also demonstrate the practical utility of our proposed model by constructing a novel measure of optimism. Here, we observe the dependence of earnings surprise and return on our optimism measure. Our dataset, models, and code are publicly (under CC BY 4.0 license) available on GitHub.

EMNLP 2024

Numerical Claim Detection in Finance: A New Financial Dataset, Weak-Supervision Model, and Market Analysis

approaches to low-resource settings

data resources

claim extraction

data analysis

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Information retrieval (IR) methods, like retrieval augmented generation, are fundamental to modern applications but often lack statistical guarantees. Conformal prediction addresses this by retrieving sets guaranteed to include relevant information, yet existing approaches produce large-sized sets, incurring high computational costs and slow response times. In this work, we introduce a score refinement method that applies a simple monotone transformation to retrieval scores, leading to significantly smaller conformal sets while maintaining their statistical guarantees. Experiments on various BEIR benchmarks validate the effectiveness of our approach in producing compact sets containing relevant information.

Streamlining Conformal Information Retrieval via Score Refinement

Most existing fact-checking systems are unable to explain their decisions by providing relevant rationales (justifications) for their predictions. It highlights a lack of transparency that poses significant risks, such as the prevalence of unexpected biases, which may increase political polarization due to limitations in impartiality. To address this critical gap, we introduce Sentence-Level Factual Reasoning (SELFAR) aimed at improving explainable fact-checking. SELFAR relies on fact extraction and verification by predicting the news source reliability and factuality (veracity) of news articles or claims at the sentence level, generating post-hoc explanations using SHAP/LIME and zero-shot prompts. Our experiments show that unreliable news stories predominantly consist of subjective statements, in contrast to reliable ones. Consequently, predicting unreliable news articles at the sentence level by analyzing impartiality and subjectivity is a promising approach for fact extraction and improving explainable fact-checking. Furthermore, LIME outperforms SHAP in explaining predictions on reliability. Additionally, while zero-shot prompts provide highly readable explanations and achieve an accuracy of 0.71 in predicting factuality, their tendency to hallucinate remains a challenge. Lastly, this paper also presents the first study on explainable fact-checking in the Portuguese language.

Improve Explainable Fact-Checking via Sentence-Level Factual Reasoning

Enterprise retrieval augmented generation (RAG) offers a highly flexible framework for combining powerful large language models (LLMs) with internal, possibly temporally changing, documents. In RAG, documents are first chunked. Relevant chunks are then retrieved for a user query, which are passed as context to a synthesizer LLM to generate the query response. However, the retrieval step can limit performance, as incorrect chunks can lead the synthesizer LLM to generate a false response. This work applies a zero-shot adaptation of standard dense retrieval steps for more accurate chunk recall. Specifically, a chunk is first decomposed into atomic statements. A set of synthetic questions are then generated on these atoms (with the chunk as the context). Dense retrieval involves finding the closest set of synthetic questions, and associated chunks, to the user query. It is found that retrieval with the atoms leads to higher recall than retrieval with chunks. Further performance gain is observed with retrieval using the synthetic questions generated over the atoms. Higher recall at the retrieval step enables higher performance of the enterprise LLM using the RAG pipeline.

Question-Based Retrieval using Atomic Units for Enterprise RAG

With the advent of social media networks and the vast amount of information circulating through them, automatic fact verification is an essential component to prevent the spread of misinformation. It is even more useful to have fact verification systems that provide explanations along with their classifications to ensure accurate predictions. To address both of these requirements, we implement AMREx, an Abstract Meaning Representation (AMR)-based veracity prediction and explanation system for fact verification using a combination of Smatch, an AMR evaluation metric to measure meaning containment and textual similarity, and demonstrate its effectiveness in producing partially explainable justifications using two community standard fact verification datasets, FEVER and AVeriTeC. AMREx surpasses the AVeriTec baseline accuracy showing the effectiveness of our approach for real-world claim verification. It follows an interpretable pipeline and returns an explainable AMR node mapping to clarify the system's veracity predictions when applicable. We further demonstrate that AMREx output can be used to prompt LLMs to generate natural-language explanations using the AMR mappings as a guide to lessen the probability of hallucinations.

AMREx: AMR for Explainable Fact Verification

The rising threat of disinformation underscores the need to fully or partially automate the fact-checking process. Identifying text segments requiring fact-checking is known as \emph{claim detection} (CD) and \emph{claim check-worthiness detection} (CW), the latter incorporating complex domain-specific criteria of worthiness and often framed as a ranking task. Zero- and few-shot LLM prompting is an attractive option for both tasks, as it bypasses the need for labeled datasets and allows verbalized claim and worthiness criteria to be directly used for prompting. We evaluate the LLMs' predictive accuracy on five CD/CW datasets from diverse domains, using corresponding annotation guidelines in prompts. We examine two key aspects: (1) how to best distill factuality and worthiness criteria into a prompt, and (2) how much context to provide for each claim. To this end, we experiment with different levels of prompt verbosity and varying amounts of contextual information given to the model. We additionally evaluate the top-performing models with ranking metrics, resembling prioritization done by fact-checkers. Our results show that optimal prompt verbosity varies, meta-data alone adds more performance boost than co-text, and confidence scores can be directly used to produce reliable check-worthiness rankings.

Claim Check-Worthiness Detection: How Well do LLMs Grasp Annotation Guidelines?

Recent work on fact-checking addresses a realistic setting where models incorporate evidence retrieved from the web to decide the veracity of claims. A bottleneck in this pipeline is in retrieving relevant evidence: traditional methods may surface documents directly related to a claim, but fact-checking complex claims requires more inferences. For instance, a document about how a vaccine was developed is relevant to addressing claims about what it might contain, even if it does not address them directly. We present a Contrastive Fact-Checking Reranker (CFR), an improved retriever for this setting. By leveraging the AVeriTeC dataset, which annotates subquestions for claims with human written answers from evidence documents, we fine-tune Contriever with a contrastive objective based on multiple training signals, including distillation from GPT-4, evaluating subquestion answers, and gold labels in the dataset. We evaluate our model on both retrieval and end-to-end veracity judgments about claims. On the AVeriTeC dataset, we find a 6% improvement in veracity classification accuracy. We also show our gains can be transferred to FEVER, ClaimDecomp, HotpotQA, and a synthetic dataset requiring retrievers to make inferences.

Contrastive Learning to Improve Retrieval for Real-World Fact Checking

The escalating challenge of misinformation, particularly in political discourse, requires advanced fact-checking solutions; this is even clearer in the more complex scenario of multimodal claims. We tackle this issue using a multimodal large language model in conjunction with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and introduce two novel reasoning techniques: Chain of RAG (CoRAG) and Tree of RAG (ToRAG). They fact-check multimodal claims by extracting both textual and image content, retrieving external information, and reasoning subsequent questions to be answered based on prior evidence. We achieve a weighted F1-score of 0.85, surpassing a baseline reasoning technique by 0.14 points. Human evaluation confirms that the vast majority of our generated fact-check explanations contain all information from gold standard data.

RAGAR, Your Falsehood Radar: RAG-Augmented Reasoning for Political Fact-Checking using Multimodal Large Language Models

Fact-checking is a critical NLP task aimed at verifying the truthfulness of claims based on evidence and current approaches are labor-intensive and document-centric. FactGenius introduces a novel approach by combining zero-shot prompting of large language models (LLMs) with fuzzy relation mining on Knowledge Graphs (KGs) for fact-checking.

FactGenius: Combining Zero-Shot Prompting and Fuzzy Relation Mining to Improve Fact Verification with Knowledge Graphs

Despite recent success in natural language processing (NLP), fact verification remains a difficult task. Due to misinformation spreading increasingly fast, attention has been directed towards automatically verifying the correctness of claims. In the domain of NLP, this is usually done by training supervised machine learning models to verify claims by utilizing evidence from trustworthy corpora. \textbf{We present efficient methods for verifying claims on a dataset where the evidence is in the form of structured knowledge graphs.} We use the \textsc{FactKG} dataset, which is constructed from the \emph{DBpedia} knowledge graph extracted from Wikipedia. By simplifying the evidence retrieval process, from fine-tuned language models to simple logical retrievals, \textbf{we are able to construct models that both require less computational resources and achieve better test-set accuracy.

Fact or Fiction? Improving Fact Verification with Knowledge Graphs through Simplified Subgraph Retrievals

Contradiction retrieval refers to identifying and extracting documents that explicitly disagree with or refute the content of a query, which is important to many downstream applications like fact checking and data cleaning. To retrieve contradiction argument to the query from large document corpora, existing methods such as similarity search and crossencoder models exhibit significant limitations. The former struggles to capture the essence of contradiction due to its inherent nature of favoring similarity, while the latter suffers from computational inefficiency, especially when the size of corpora is large. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach: \name~that leverages specially trained sentence embeddings designed to preserve subtle, contradictory nuances between sentences. Our method utilizes a combined metric of cosine similarity and a sparsity function to efficiently identify and retrieve documents that contradict a given query. This approach dramatically enhances the speed of contradiction detection by reducing the need for exhaustive document comparisons to simple vector calculations. We validate our model using the Arguana dataset, a benchmark dataset specifically geared towards contradiction retrieval, as well as synthetic contradictions generated from the MSMARCO and HotpotQA datasets using GPT-4. Our experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our approach not only in contradiction retrieval with more than 30% accuracy improvements on MSMARCO and HotpotQA across different model architectures but also in applications such as cleaning corrupted corpora to restore high-quality QA retrieval. This paper outlines a promising direction for improving the accuracy and efficiency of contradiction retrieval in large-scale text corpora.

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Numerical Claim Detection in Finance: A New Financial Dataset, Weak-Supervision Model, and Market Analysis

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