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Impact of the Dobbs Decision on Abortion Rates, Preventive Measures, and Pregnancy Outcomes Across Racial Groups: A Large Public Health Database Analysis
Introduction: The Dobbs decision (June 24, 2022), which overturned Roe v. Wade, introduced significant changes to abortion laws across the United States. It remains unclear how this policy shift has impacted reproductive health care among different racial groups. This study aims to evaluate these effects, hypothesizing that the Dobbs decision would lead to increased preventive measures and decreased abortion procedures due to heightened awareness and potential legal restrictions. Methods: Utilizing data from the TriNetX global health research network, which aggregates electronic health records (EHR) from over 120 clinical sites, patient cohorts were categorized based on ICD, CPT, or medication codes, focusing on periods before and after the Dobbs decision (June 30, 2020, to January 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, to June 30, 2024, with a 6-month washout period). The groupings included prevention (contraceptive medication, emergency contraceptives, encounters for general counseling and advice on contraception, and insertion of IUD), screening (PAP tests), complications (preterm labor, spontaneous abortion, pregnancy with abortive outcome), and overall abortion procedures. Statistical analyses, including propensity matching for demographic features and access to healthcare services, were performed to identify significant trends and disparities within TriNetX. Results: TriNetX identified 9,124,941 patients after propensity matching 35 ± 13.1 age of which 60.1% white, 16.8% black, 13.1% Hispanic, and 4.3% Asian. Adverse pregnancy outcomes slightly increased post-Dobbs (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.04-1.06, p-value < 0.01). There was an increase in abortion procedures post-Dobbs (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.03-1.08, p-value < 0.01), but disaggregated data into individual racial groups found unique reproductive health behavioral patterns. Abortions were non-significant for the white and Asian populations (p = .24, and .80, respectively). The only racial group to have increased preventive measures post-Dobbs were Asians (OR: 1.1, 95% CI: 1.07-1.12, p-value < 0.01). Screenings statistically significantly decreased for all racial groups (OR: 0.78, 95% CI: 1.77-1.78, p-value < 0.01) post-Dobbs. Conclusion: Adverse pregnancy outcomes rose for all racial groups except African Americans, and Asians were the only group with a significant increase in preventive measures. Odds ratio for these findings are slightly above 1.0, which indicates that the observed changes may not be clinically significant. This analysis underscores the importance of continuing research and dialogue on the potential impacts of the Dobbs decision on women's health and racial disparities.