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Atrial Fibrillation and the Risk of Adverse Events and Mortality in Adults with Acute Pancreatitis: A Propensity-Score Matched Analysis
Background: Recent studies indicate an association between pancreatitis and cardiovascular disease. However, research regarding the association between atrial fibrillation (AF) and acute pancreatitis (AP) is limited. To address this gap and test our hypothesis that AF exacerbates mortality and clinical outcomes in patients with AP, we conducted a retrospective cohort study using the extensive multi-institutional research network, TriNetX.
Methods: De-identified patient data from the US Collaborative Network in TriNetX was used to assess the risk of all-cause mortality in AP patients with AF compared to those without AF within 30 days of the index event from January 1, 2010 to July 6, 2024. Secondary outcomes included critical care services, acute kidney injury (AKI), deep vein thrombosis (DVT), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), hemorrhage, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and severe sepsis within 30 days of the index event. Analyses were performed before and after propensity score matching, with risks expressed as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), and Kaplan-Meier curves were generated for outcomes.
Results: A total of 267,429 patients with AP were identified, of whom 44,621 had a diagnosis of AF. Patients in the AP with AF cohort, predominantly older males of White and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ethnicity, presented with higher comorbidity burdens compared to the non-AF cohort before propensity score matching. After matching, the AF cohort exhibited increased risks of all-cause mortality (OR, 1.24; 95% CI 1.18-1.3), AKI (OR, 1.17; 95% CI 1.14-1.2), DVT (OR, 1.33; 95% CI 1.27-1.39), hemorrhage (OR, 1.06; 95% CI 1.01-1.11), ARDS (OR, 1.4; 95% CI 1.27-1.54), SIRS (OR, 1.12; 95% CI 1.03-1.22), severe sepsis (OR, 1.3; 95% CI 1.25-1.35,), and requiring critical care services (OR, 1.19; 95% CI 1.16-1.23) compared to the non-AF cohort. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated significantly lower 30-day survival probabilities for all-cause mortality, ICU level of care, AKI, DVT, and hemmorrhage in the AF cohort compared to patients without AF, while similar survival probabilities were observed for ARDS and SIRS between the two cohorts.
Conclusion: Our results suggest that AF significantly increases the risk of mortality in patients with AP, even after accounting for confounding etiological, comorbid, and pharmacological factors. Patients with AP and AF are also at greater risk of worse clinical outcomes.