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“Why Did They Die?” The Hidden Surge of Pulmonary Thromboembolism in Post-COVID
Abstract Title: “Why Did They Die?” The Hidden Surge of Pulmonary Thromboembolism in Post-COVID Saint Vincent and the Grenadines – A JoinPoint Regression Analysis (2013-2023) Background: Pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) is a critical cardiovascular condition with significant mortality risk. The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with increased thromboembolic events, likely due to virus-related hypercoagulability. This study investigates the trends and demographic shifts in PTE-related mortality in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines over an 11-year period, exploring both pre- and post-COVID eras. Methods: Data on PTE-related deaths from Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, were obtained from the population-based death registration system. Crude mortality rates were calculated for the period 2013-2023. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to identify significant changes in mortality trends. The analysis also explored demographic shifts across different age groups and genders. Results: A total of 209 PTE-related deaths were recorded during the study period, with notable peak significant stratifications seen as 56.5% of the cases being men and 24.9% occurring in individuals aged 51-60 years. The crude mortality rate for PTE increased by 66.5% from the pre- COVID era (2013-2019) to the COVID/post-COVID era (2020-2023). Joinpoint regression analysis revealed a significant increase in the annual percent change (APC) of PTE mortality: 11.5% (95% CI −1.2 to 25.89, P = 0.99) for males and 13.85% (95% CI −2.58 to 33.07, P = 0.83) for females. A peak in PTE mortality was observed in 2020, with a subsequent decline from 2021-2023. Conclusion: The mortality trend for PTE showed a marked increase during the COVID-19 era compared to the pre-COVID period, particularly among males and those aged 51-60 years. Despite the significant surge in 2020, a decline in crude mortality rates was noted from 2021-2023, potentially attributable to various factors such as improved clinical management and increased vaccine uptake. More research is needed to fully understand the impact these factors could have played. This study underscores the need for targeted interventions to mitigate PTE risk and improve outcomes in vulnerable populations during and after pandemics. Keywords: Pulmonary embolism, Mortality trends, Crude mortality rate, Joinpoint regression, COVID-19 impact, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Vaccine uptake. Anderson E. Ikeokwu (M.D MPH) Promise Okereke (M.D) Hilary Daniel (MD)